Newcastle United: Taking Moneyball to the Premier League

For those of you lucky enough to have seen the film Moneyball, you’ll know that it begins with much maligned general manager Billy Beane losing his three best players.  For those of you who haven’t seen it, where have you been?

Alan Pardew had his own Moneyball moment at the start of this year.  For one reason or another, Pardew lost four key players from his side: Carroll, Nolan, Barton and Enrique. An important core of the team had just vanished before his cockney eyes and new players had to be brought in.

So Pardew set about his task, adding Cabaye, Ba, Cisse, Santon and signing Ben Arfa on a permanent deal. These five players, coupled with a tenacious Tiote in midfield, a much improved Coloccini and a Mr. Tickle-esc Krul in goal, have formed one of the most consistent sides in the Premier League.

Football has a great many more variations than baseball, which makes picking up players that can build a championship team on the cheap very difficult indeed, but with the help of chief scout Graham Carr, he has picked up some very impressive players on a shoestring budget. Cabaye, a £4.5 million signing from Lille, a double medal winner and French international, would have arguably been the buy of the season were it not for the signing of striker Demba Ba. Signings like that make the buys of Dzeko (£27 million) and Torress (£50 million) seem laughable.

The management style of Pardew has also brought the best out of the hugely talented Hatem Ben Arfa, whose performances after January have been spellbinding, and who contributed to Newcastle's six-match winning streak during the season.

Where Newcastle begins to differ from the Oakland A’s is that the Magpies have yet to win anything. But, they are on the brink in European football. Ask any journalist at the start of the season if the Toon would be challenging for a top-four spot with three games to go and they would have laughed you off the phone.

Newcastle needs to continue to grow, and to do that they need to keep their stars. The plan now should be to stop their Mike Ashley, the Ebeneezer Scrooge of football, from selling a Cabaye or Tiote as soon as he gets the whiff of a fat cheque. Hard-headed businessman he may be, interested in Newcastle’s long-term future he is not.