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UFC on Fox 3: Full-Card Analysis and Predictions

Riley KontekJun 7, 2018

UFC on Fox 3 comes to you live this weekend, with preliminary bouts on Facebook and Fuel TV and the main card on Fox. Headlining are lightweight contenders Nate Diaz and Jim Miller.

Additionally, several bouts with major implications in their respective divisions will take place. In the welterweight division, Josh Koscheck and Johny Hendricks will meet, while in the middleweight division, Rousimar Palhares will square off with Alan Belcher.

Here is a look at the full card.

Mike Massenzio vs. Karlos Vemola

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The Facebook fights kick off in the middleweight division, as Czech import Karlos Vemola meets Mike Massenzio.

Vemola is a former heavyweight who is making his middleweight debut. We will have to see if this weight cut will be too much. With that, he will obviously be the much bigger fighter.

Vemola is 1-2 in the UFC, spanning two divisions. He lost his debut with the company in the heavyweight division, losing to Jon Madsen. He then went 1-1 as a light heavyweight, decimating Seth Petruzelli, before being dominated by Ronny Markes. He will need to utilize his wrestling here to win the fight.

Massenzio is 2-4 in his UFC career, which spans over two separate stints in the company. Most recently, he is 1-2 in the UFC. He dropped his return fight on short notice to Krzysztof Soszynski at light heavyweight before moving back to middleweight.

Since then, he has split fights, winning a bout against Steve Cantwell and tapping out to a signature Rousimar Palhares heel hook.

Prediction: Karlos Vemola def. Mike Massenzio via decision.

Nick Denis vs. Roland Delorme

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In the second of two Facebook fights, fellow Canadian bantamweights Nick Denis and Roland Delorme will meet to move up the ladder.

Roland Delorme steps up on short notice for fellow Ultimate Fighter alumnus Johnny Bedford. Delorme won his first official UFC bout by submitting Josh Ferguson. It was Delorme's fifth submission win in seven career victories.

Nick Denis jumped into the spotlight in his 22-second knockout against Joseph Sandoval. He used standing elbows from the clinch to render Sandoval unconscious. Denis will want to keep the fight standing, as he owns 10 career knockout victories.

Prediction: Nick Denis def. Roland Delorme via knockout.

Dennis Bermudez vs. Pablo Garza

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In the first bout on Fuel TV, featherweights Pablo Garza and Dennis Bermudez are scheduled to battle in the Octagon.

Pablo Garza is an exciting featherweight, especially in his time with the UFC. He is 2-1 in the UFC, owning a flying knee knockout win over Fredson Paixao and a beautiful flying triangle choke win over Yves Jabouin. Both finishes earned him a fight night bonus.

Meanwhile, Dennis Bermudez looks to erase the loss he experienced in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter. He finds himself on a three-fight skid, including his official UFC debut against Diego Brandao. He looks to right the ship in this outing, after losing by submission three times in a row.

Prediction: Dennis Bermudez def. Pablo Garza via decision.

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Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish

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Next up, we have a lightweight confrontation between Team Alpha Male's Danny Castillo and submission specialist John Cholish.

Danny Castillo is criminally underrated, despite being 3-1 in the UFC. His only loss came to the surging Jacob Volkmann, while his victories have come over Joe Stevenson, Shamar Bailey and Anthony Njokuani. This UFC run came on the heels of a successful run in the WEC.

John Cholish is one of the brightest prospects in the lightweight division, especially after his impressive UFC debut, which was a victory over Mitch Clarke. He has won four of his seven wins by submission, which could play a factor in how this fight goes.

Prediction: Danny Castillo def. John Cholish via decision.

Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker

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In the first non-tournament flyweight bout in UFC history, newcomer John Lineker will meet Ultimate Fighter alumnus Louis Gaudinot.

Louis Gaudinot fought on The Ultimate Fighter as a bantamweight, despite being a natural flyweight. He dropped his UFC debut as a bantamweight, losing brutally to a much bigger Johnny Bedford. Gaudinot is a fantastic striker, which he will need to utilize in this bout.

John Lineker joins the UFC after winning the Jungle Fights bantamweight title. He is currently on a 13-fight win streak, which dates back to February of 2010. He is a well-rounded fighter who is comfortable whether the fight is on the feet or on the mat.

Prediction: John Lineker def. Louis Gaudinot via decision.

John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss

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Moving on, we head to the welterweight division, as the UK's John Hathaway meets up with Germany's Pascal Krauss.

John Hathaway has had a pretty successful UFC run, as he is 5-1 with the organization. His only setback came to the always tough Mike Pyle. He has beaten such top opponents such as Diego Sanchez and Rick Story.

Meanwhile, Pascal Krauss brings a perfect 10-0 record into this fight. His last fight was in late 2010, where he made his UFC debut in a victory over Mark Scanlon. He is a skilled submission artist, but will have a tough ground opponent in Hathaway.

Prediction: John Hathaway def. Pascal Krauss via decision.

John Dodson vs. Tim Elliott

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In another flyweight bout, John Dodson meets late replacement Tim Elliott.

Dodson won last season's Ultimate Fighter, knocking out TJ Dillashaw to win the show. Dodson is one of the toughest flyweights due to his elusiveness and striking ability. He will need to utilize this when facing off with all-around threat Tim Elliott.

Elliott is filling in for Darren Uyenoyama, who pulled out of the fight not long ago. Elliott is 8-2-1 in his career, with notable wins over Jens Pulver and Josh Rave. He is undefeated since drawing in his debut and losing the next two.

Prediction: John Dodson def. Tim Elliott via decision.

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson

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In the final fight on Fuel TV, fellow Ultimate Fighter veterans Tony Ferguson and Michael Johnson will meet in the lightweight division.

Ferguson's record has been unblemished since entering the UFC, going 3-0 with the company in 2011. He owns finishes over Ramsey Nijem and Aaron Riley, as well as a close decision victory over Yves Edwards. He has very good boxing to go along with his solid wrestling base.

Johnson takes this fight on short notice, as Dennis Hallman and Thiago Tavares both pulled from the fight due to injury. Johnson is coming off his best performance to date, a dismantling of Shane Roller in Chicago. He also has solid boxing that complements his wrestling skills, which could lead to an interesting matchup.

Prediction: Tony Ferguson def. Michael Johnson via decision.

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson

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The main card starts off with a barn burner, as fellow strikers Pat Barry and Lavar Johnson will meet up.

Pat Barry likely saved his job in his last outing, knocking out Christian Morecraft with brutal strikes. He has consistently been working on his ground game with top wrestlers, so his improvements may be key in this fight.

Lavar Johnson is another big striker who entered the UFC with a bang in his debut. He ripped apart Joey Beltran with brutal punches, stamping his arrival. He has also had struggles on the ground, which in the future could come back to haunt him.

Prediction: Pat Barry def. Lavar Johnson via decision.

Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher

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Next up, we have a middleweight bout that will pin Rousimar Palhares and Alan Belcher together.

Palhares is a nightmare for any man he has to fight, as he possesses brutal leg locks that do serious damage. He has improved striking, which has helped him open up takedowns to work his submissions. He is riding a three-fight win streak, and looks to move closer to the title with a win here.

Belcher is also on the three-fight win streak, with his most recent win over Jason MacDonald, which he returned from a career threatening injury. Belcher is also very good on the ground, with the difference being that he is also proficient on the feet. That will be his best way of winning the fight.

Prediction: Rousimar Palhares def. Alan Belcher via submission.

Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

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In the co-main event of the evening, Josh Koscheck will look to avenge a teammate's recent loss when he fights Johny Hendricks.

Kosheck looks to avenge Jon Fitch's recent loss to Hendricks, in which Hendricks knocked Fitch out in 12 seconds. Koscheck has won two in a row, which saw him knock out Matt Hughes and win narrowly over Mike Pierce. He will need to use a combination of his wrestling and power punching to knock off Hendricks.

Hendricks is one of the fastest rising fighters in the UFC, having won three straight over the likes of Fitch, Mike Pierce and TJ Waldburger. He is also a great wrestler with power punching, making this a great style matchup.

Prediction: Josh Koscheck def. Johny Hendricks via decision.

Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller

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In the main event of the evening, lightweight title implications will take place when Jim Miller and Nate Diaz meet.

Nate Diaz has enjoyed a resurgence in the lightweight division, as he has won both fights since his return from the welterweight division. He dominated Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone, en route to this important fight. Diaz has looked like Nick Diaz 2.0 as of recent, using volumes of punches and slick submissions to knock off opponents.

Jim Miller rebounded from a devastating loss to Ben Henderson in his last fight when he submitted Melvin Guillard. Miller's only losses have come from the latest top contenders and champions of the division (Henderson, Frank Edgar and Gray Maynard). He is a well-rounded fighter with a never-die-easy attitude.

Prediction: Nate Diaz def. Jim Miller via decision.

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