Philadelphia Phillies: Why the Nats Are Bigger Long-Term Threat Than Braves

As the first month of the regular season winds down, first place in the National League East belongs to both the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves.

This means that the Philadelphia Phillies, winners of the past five National League East titles, have their share of competition as they attempt to continue their streak this season.

Prior to finishing third in the division last season, the Washington franchise had finished last in the NL East in six of the past eight seasons.  During that time, Atlanta finished first or second in the division four times.

After 22 games this season, both teams find themselves atop the National League East, and ahead of the Phillies.

But between the two, one team has a chance to become a bigger long-term threat to the Phillies than the other.

The Nationals’ rise to the top of the NL East may not be limited to just this season.

Starting Pitching

To start the season, Nationals starting pitchers have combined for a major league-leading 1.73 ERA while holding opponents to a league-best .188 batting average.

Each of the team’s five starting pitchers is also under the age of 30.

Phillies starting pitchers, meanwhile, have posted a combined 2.84 ERA, ranking as the fifth best in the major leagues to start the season.

Four of the Nationals’ five starting pitchers currently have ERAs under 2.00, including Stephen Strasburg (1.13 ERA) and Jordan Zimmermann (1.33 ERA).  Both players are under team control beyond this season.

Washington’s starters are also averaging 8.42 K/9.

Although Atlanta’s starting pitchers, with the exception of Tim Hudson, are also under the age of 30, only two pitchers currently have an ERA of 3.00 or less.

With the addition of Gio Gonzalez during the offseason, the Nationals have three starting pitchers who are 26 years old or younger to try to compete with the Phillies rotation going forward.

Gonzalez and Strasburg are currently tied for the second-highest amount of strikeouts so far this season in the National League.

Although not nearly as experienced as the Phillies starting rotation, Nationals starting pitchers are showing how they might be able to compete with the team in the long term.

Youth Movement

The Nationals’ recent promotion of 19-year-old Bryce Harper gives the team the youngest player currently in the major leagues.

However, Harper is not the only young talent on the Nationals roster.

Players such as Danny Espinosa, Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Tyler Clippard are all 27 years old or younger, while Michael Morse recently turned 30.

The average age of the Nationals roster is 27.1.

Meanwhile, the Phillies—whose roster has an average age that is more than two years older—features few starters under the age of 30.

Zimmerman is also the only Nationals player under the age of 28 who is currently making over $5 million.

While the Nationals roster is younger, the Phillies roster features players with more regular season and playoff experience.

The Nationals may also be forced to compete with the Phillies and other teams if these young players become free agents.

Television Revenue

The Phillies may receive a new television contract in the near future that could have a significant financial impact, but the team already has one of the league’s highest payrolls.

The Nationals, meanwhile, have a payroll that is toward the lower half of the league in terms of team salary.

However, as a recent article written by Ken Rosenthal points out, the Nationals could soon be receiving a financial boost from their second-highest revenue generator.

As Rosenthal’s article explains, the Nationals currently share ownership of the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network with the Baltimore Orioles.  Baltimore has about an 87 percent stake, while Washington’s stake is approximately 13 percent.

However, following a panel decision, the $29 million that Washington is receiving each year could significantly increase.

Although the Phillies payroll is much larger than that of the Nationals, the Phils may soon receive a boost of their own from a television contract, and more revenue for Washington can only further add to the team’s chances of becoming a long-term threat to the Phils.

Power in the Lineup

While the Phillies have attempted to transition to a small ball-style offense, the Nationals may have a lineup that, when healthy, has multiple players capable of hitting 30 home runs in a season.

It wasn’t too long ago that the Phils featured a lineup that scored upwards of 850 runs in a season, while the Nationals scored in the 650-750 range.

However, as the Phillies’ run total has decreased in recent seasons, the Nationals may soon have a roster capable of finishing in the upper half of the league in runs.

Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman have all had seasons in which they hit at least 30 home runs.  If Bryce Harper remains on the major league roster to improve the team’s offense from the left field position, the Nationals may have the potential for a lineup with multiple power hitters capable of 20-plus-home run seasons.

Of course, this depends on Harper’s remaining at the major league level and the avoidance of injuries for the team going forward.

Once Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return, the Phillies could receive significant boosts to their RBI and run production. 

However, when it comes to young power hitters in the long term, the Nationals may have an advantage.