Projecting the Field of 65: Jan. 28

The Schwach Indicator is becoming more and more accurate as we near the midway point of league play.  All four of my top seeds (Oklahoma, Connecticut, Duke, and Pittsburgh) are in the top four of the new rankings.  But how will the Schwach impact the rest of my projections?

Remember, I am not trying to guess how teams will end up come Selection Sunday.  I am simply seeding them based on their current résumé.  To that end, teams currently leading their conference receive automatic bids, and everyone else is judged on their at-large profile.

As always, I like to break teams down into three categories. "Wallflowers" are bubble teams. Everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor. Elite teams are safely in the field, "Dancing with a hottie," and in the middle are the schools that are "Dancing with their sister."

ACC

Dancing with a hottie: Duke (1 seed), Wake Forest (2), No. Carolina (2), Clemson (3)

Wallflowers: Virginia Tech (9), Florida State (10), Boston College (12), Miami (12), Maryland (out)

Virginia Tech probably had the best week of any team in the country.  First, the Hokies handed No. 1 Wake Forest its first loss of the season and then followed it up with a win at Miami.  For their troubles, Va Tech jumped from one of the first few teams out of the field to a No. 9 seed.

But there are other ACC teams still flirting dangerously with the bubble.  The Hurricanes’ loss to VT hurts, but their defeat at the hands of NC State Tuesday is even worse because it’s the first time they’ve lost to a team not headed for the NCAA Tournament. 

Boston College’s standing is a little bit better after winning at Maryland Tuesday.  The Eagles are back in the field after snapping their four-game losing streak with three straight victories, and remember, BC still has that win at UNC on their résumé.

Maryland is not as lucky.  The Terps were absolutely manhandled at Cameron Indoor this week and have now dropped five of seven after also falling to BC.

Big XII

Dancing with a hottie: Oklahoma (1), Texas (4)

Dancing with their sister: Kansas (7)

Wallflowers: Baylor (9), Missouri (9), Oklahoma State (out), Texas A&M (out)

Missouri keeps improving its position.  The Tigers beat Oklahoma State and Texas Tech this week to run their record to 16-3, including 14 wins in their last 16 contests.  The Cowboys meanwhile, have dropped to one of my first teams out because they’ve lost three of four and their only top 50 wins (Siena and Texas A&M) aren’t very impressive.

Similarly, the Aggies have lost four of five (all conference games) to start the league schedule at 1-4—a mark that doesn’t warrant an at-large bid.

Pac-10

Dancing with a hottie: Arizona State (4)

Dancing with their sister: California (6), Washington (6), UCLA (8)

Wallflowers: USC (11), Stanford (out)

Team A: 17-1, RPI 8, SOS 52, 3-1 vs. top 50, 7-1 vs. top 100, 8-1 road/neutral
Team B: 15-4, RPI 40, SOS 83, 1-4 vs. top 50, 4-4 vs. top 100, 6-3 road/neutral

This is the second week in a row that I've compared Butler (Team A) with UCLA (Team B) to show how far too often, teams are judged by their name or league rather than their résumé. 

The Bulldogs are ahead in every important criteria considered by the selection committee, and yet the Bruins continue to get seeded higher in many projections.  ESPN’s Joe Lunardi finally wised up this week and put Butler a seed ahead of UCLA.

Washington had a great week, beating both Los Angeles schools.  The Huskies have now won 13 of 14 with their only loss coming to California in triple overtime.  Stanford’s loss to Oregon State, meanwhile, drops the Cardinals to 3-4 in conference, 64th in the RPI, and right out of my field.

USC holds onto one of my final spots because the Trojans are above .500 in a power conference (4-3), which is always important. They struggled early, but their recent 12-point win over Arizona State proves that they’re playing better, and they haven’t shown anything to prove otherwise (that five-point loss at Washington is no shame the way the Huskies are playing).

SEC

Dancing with their sister: Kentucky (7), Florida (8), Tennessee (8)

Wallflowers: South Carolina (11), Mississippi State (out), LSU (out)

Kentucky has quickly become the class of the SEC, despite the Wildcats’ Tuesday night loss at Ole Miss.  UK is 5-1 in league and with a good non-conference win over West Virginia.

South Carolina went from off the radar to in the field this week with victories over Florida and Mississippi.  The Gamecocks (14-4) also have a solid non-conference win at Baylor on their resume.

The SEC West isn’t doing as well.  The top five teams in the division are 0-12 versus the top 50, and the only team with major victories on its résumé (Arkansas) is 0-4 in conference.

Mid-Majors

Dancing with a hottie: Butler (3), Xavier (3), Memphis (4)

Dancing with their sister: Dayton (7), Gonzaga (8)

Wallflowers: Davidson (10), UNLV (10), Saint Mary’s (11), Utah (11) BYU (out), Miami-Ohio (out), UAB (out), Temple (out), George Mason (out)

UNLV is trying to make the Mountain West a one-bid conference.  The Runnin’ Rebels took out at-large hopefuls BYU and Utah this week to run its first place record to 4-2.  Utah sneaks in the field following Wisconsin’s loss Tuesday.  The Utes are also 4-2 in the league and have a very strong RPI of 16, but they’re just 1-4 against the top 50.

Their only win?  BYU.  That leaves the Cougars at best third in the pecking order, and their résumé is even weaker with their best win coming against Utah State.  BYU has also lost three of four after dropping a possible play-in game to Utah Tuesday night.

Saint Mary’s is still an 11 seed despite its 16-1 record because the Gaels have yet to play a team ranked in the top 50 of the RPI.  They have just two top 100 wins (Providence and San Diego State), and their strength of schedule is 250.

Automatic Bids

12 seeds: Siena, Utah State

13 seeds: VCU, Buffalo, Northern Iowa, Western Kentucky

14 seeds: Cornell, Austin Peay, Portland State, VMI

15 seeds: North Dakota State, Texas A&M-CC, Vermont, East Tennessee State

16 seeds: Robert Morris, Long Beach State, Morgan State, Holy Cross, Alabama State

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]