Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn: Analysis and Prediction

On the 31st January, the most hotly anticipated rematch in UFC history will take place. French-Canadian "Rush" St. Pierre emerged victorious from their first fight in a hotly disputed decision, which many saw Penn as unlucky to lose. A rematch seemed natural, but for various reasons, things didn’t quite work out that way and the two men’s path wandered away from the others.

They say fate is a cruel mistress, but it worked to all our advantage here, as these two warriors seemed destined to meet again. Both men went away, improved and dominated, and now it’s time! The two will clash at UFC 94 in what might by the biggest fight in MMA history. But who will win? Here are my views:

Stand-Up:Got to give GSP the advantage here, his background in Kyokushin Karate means that his high kicks are some of the fiercest in the game. Penn’s stand-up has improved considerably since we first saw him, but he’s not at the level of "Rush." GSP’s Muay Thai gives him the advantage here.

Ground:In a fight featuring two Brazilian ju-jitsu black belts, the ground game has to be considered as a major factor. St Pierrewon his lack belt in September and is not a man to be messed with when the fight goes to the canvas, but he’s not got the advantage here for once.

BJ Penn is one of, if not the best BJJ Practitioner in the sport today with 5 of his 13 wins coming from submissions. He’s also the only non-Brazilian to win the BJJ World Championships in the black belt category. BJ all the way.

Conditioning: Both men appear to be in good shape, but when you mention the word athleticism, the name St. Pierre immediately comes to mind. The guy is an absolute machine compared to unreliable Penn. No contest in this category.

Desire: In recent interviews GSP has said he’s 100% focused on BJ Penn, but I’m not so sure. Maybe 99%, but it seems to me like he’s already thinking about Thiago Alves and Anderson Silva. And, no matter how good you are, you can’t go into a fight with BJ Penn any less than 100% focused. However, Penn seems incredibly focused. He’s said we will see anew man in that Octagon and looks to be all geared up mentally to win the fight.

Takedowns: We’ve already mentioned what happens on the ground, but not how they’re going to get there. Both men are good at taking their man down and have good defence against any attempts on them. It’s a close category, but Penn’s BJJ experience makes me lean towards him, especially with the amount of leg kicks GSP will be throwing, providing plenty of opportunities.

Big Fight Experience:Both men know what it’s like to fight championship fights and in my head I couldn’t divide them in this category. So I looked up some numbers, but they didn’t help either: Penn has gone the distance 6 times, with GSP doing it five, and  each have competed in fought in seven UFC Title fights (including interim). There’s not much to split the two here, so why do it. Draw.

Support: Who do you root for? It’s not an easy question? GSP’s boyish good looks and huge French-Canadian following make him one of the most well-supported fighters in the game. But Penn is the archetypal nice guy who always works hard and battles until the end.

Both are true warriors who the fans love to watch. The splitting difference here is that in the build-up to this fight, Penn has given several passionate interviews, actually once saying he wants to kill St. Pierre. Is he playing the bad guy or does he really feel that way? Who knows? But it’s enough to make more people turn to GSP.

Advantage from the first fight:This might seem a bit obvious – GSP won the first fight so he knows he can beat Penn.That is a valid point but it’s not the whole story. Penn was inches away from victory and has improved greatly since UFC 58. Also, if BJ would have won that first fight, would the hunger he’s showing now still be there?

Penn is determined to win; he’s said he would literally die to win. I don’t think GSP would, knowing that he has beaten Penn before. Georges will be prepared, but after the first fight, I think Penn wants it more.

My Prediction: You can’t really blame anyone who gets this fight wrong, because it truly is a pick ‘em affair, where either guy could win at any moment. I see it being a classic war where both men lay everything on the line, giving everything they have to win. I think it’ll go to the judges with Penn…I mean GSP….I mean Penn… I mean GSP…Penn…GSP…Penn!

That’s how difficult picking a winner here is, it’s going to be close, but I’m backing The Prodigy winning a razor thin split decision. And then we can do it all over again.