The ACC-Big East Challenge: Which Is the Better Conference?

Accurate as of Jan. 28, 2008.

At the start of the season, the popular perception was that the Big East is the best conference in the nation—perhaps the best men's basketball conference in history.  While the latter claim may be exaggerated, certainly, the Big East has proved powerful, as evidenced by its eight teams in the top 25 AP ranking.

However, the ACC is also making a claim for the best conference in the nation.  That claim is certainly backed up by computer ratings: the RPI, KenPom, and Sagarin all have the ACC as the No. 1 rated conference.  The ACC also has the best winning percentage and a favorable head-to-head record against the Big East.

So...which conference is the best?  One way to answer this is to imagine an ACC-Big East Challenge; which conference wins when teams are matched up?  The difficulty here is that the Big East has 16 teams while the ACC has 12 teams.  Which teams play who?

To answer this question, I made several assumptions.

1. To determine rankings within a conference, I used each conference’s own preseason ranking by the media.  This is realistic because games would have to be scheduled before the season can begin, so preseason rankings are the best indicator.

This is also interesting because given the season is past the halfway mark, we now have data to judge who is more likely to win in a given matchup.

2. In the challenge, the Big East selects 12 members to play against the ACC.  One fair method of doing so is to take the third out of every fourth team from the Big East, which means teams ranked No. 3, No. 7, No. 11, and No. 15 are excluded.

Thus the Big East’s preseason No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4 ranked teams would play the ACC's preseason No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 teams.  This way, the Big East will have 12 teams selected that are roughly representative of the entire 16.

If you exclude every fourth team it would be disadvantageous to the ACC; but if you exclude every 1st team it would be disadvantageous to the Big East.  Therefore, excluding either the second or third seems more fair.  For the purpose of this exercise, we exclude the third team.

3. All games are played on a neutral court.

Going with the above algorithm, the mythical ACC-Big East Challenge would produce the following matchups.

UNC vs. UConn
Duke vs. Louisville
Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame
Miami vs. Villanova
Clemson vs. Marquette
Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse
Maryland vs. West Virginia
Georgia Tech vs. Providence
NC State vs. Rutgers
Florida State vs. Seton Hall
Boston College vs. St. John's
Virginia vs. South Florida

Big East teams excluded: Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Cincinnati, and DePaul

Who wins?  Let's take it team by team...

UNC vs. UConn

The popular view is that UConn is UNC's strongest challenger to the NCAA crown.  Implicit in that statement is UConn's status as an underdog.  Even though UConn is currently ranked higher and has one fewer loss, UNC is still widely considered the nation's best team.

Winner: UNC

Duke vs. Louisville

Louisville has the better frontcourt, while Duke has the better backcourt.  This matchup seems like a toss-up with Louisville playing its basketball as of late, but Duke is currently No. 1 in the AP, Coaches', KenPom, Sagarin, and RPI.  In the absence of better data, Duke gets the nod.

Winner: Duke (in a defensive slugfest)

Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame

Wake has turned out better than expected with a potential first team All-American in Jeff Teague and an imposing frontcourt, while Notre Dame has faded over the course of the season.  Wake is in the top 15 in all the rankings and computer ratings, whereas Notre Dame is on their way out of the top 25.

Winner: Wake Forest

Miami vs. Villanova

Neither team has lived up to preseason expectations, but both teams are still projected to make the NCAA tourney.  Miami's best two wins are against Kentucky (on the road) and Florida State, whereas Villanova's best two wins are against Seton Hall and Temple.  However, Villanova is ranked No. 21 in both the AP and Coaches' poll while Miami is unranked; Villanova also does better in the computer ratings.

Winner: Villanova

Clemson vs. Marquette

Marquette’s best wins are against Notre Dame, WVU, Villanova, and Wisconsin with losses to Tennessee and Dayton.  Clemson’s best wins are against Illinois, USC, and Alabama with losses to UNC and Wake Forest.  Even though Clemson has the better computer numbers, Marquette is ranked higher in the polls.  In this matchup, Marquette’s veteran guards handle the Clemson press.

Winner: Marquette

Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse

Virginia Tech had some buzzer-beating heartbreakers in the early season but is playing its best basketball lately by winning nine of its last 10, with the loss against Duke.  Still, Syracuse is ranked No. 15 and has wins against Notre Dame, Memphis, Kansas, and Florida.  Syracuse’s zone will likely to negate Virginia Tech’s athleticism.

Winner: Syracuse

Maryland vs. West Virginia

Maryland is the country's strangest team with a convincing win against Michigan State and blowouts against Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Duke coupled with a very bad loss against Morgan State.  Bob Huggins has West Virginia dangerous again with a top 20 rating in KenPom, Sagarin, and RPI rankings.

Winner: West Virginia

Georgia Tech vs. Providence

Providence has no good wins and some bad losses.  However, it has a 5-2 record in the Big East, whereas Georgia Tech is winless at 0-6 in the ACC.  Georgia Tech is a better team than its record indicates (three of those six ACC losses went into overtime), but until proven otherwise, advantage Big East.

Winner: Providence

NC State vs. Rutgers

Rutgers’ 0-7 record in the Big East says everything you need to know.  While NC State isn’t that much better at 2-4 in the ACC, NC State has significantly better computer numbers (~100 to Rutgers’ ~150).

Winner: NC State

Florida State vs. Seton Hall

Florida State is a likely NCAA tournament team with wins against Florida, Cal, and Cincinnati and no bad losses.  Seton Hall, in the meantime, is 1-6 in the Big East (albeit with a decent win against Georgetown) and has little chance of making the NCAA tournament.  Florida State’s impressive defense likely wins.

Winner: Florida State

Boston College vs. St. John's

Boston College defeated Providence by five points; Providence in turn defeated St. John’s by 21 points.  One can thus infer that Boston College will likely beat St. John’s.  Moreover, Boston College has a better overall résumé and computer numbers.

Winner: Boston College

Virginia vs. South Florida

The two teams picked at the bottom of their respective conferences have played to preseason expectations: Virginia is 7-9 overall and 1-4 in the ACC, but South Florida is possibly worse at 7-12 overall and 2-5 in the Big East.  South Florida is better according to KenPom, whereas Virginia is better according to Sagarin; the tiebreaker then is the RPI, which has Virginia at No. 102 and South Florida at No. 155.

Winner: Virginia

Result: ACC with seven wins vs. Big East with five wins

The ACC comes out with a narrow win versus the Big East.  The results tell us what we already know; that the ACC is slightly better at the top and much better at the bottom, whereas the Big East dominates the middle.

One matchup that could significantly change the result is that Notre Dame was selected for the challenge instead of Pittsburgh.  What if Pittsburgh played Wake Forest instead?  If Pittsburgh won what would be an epic match (star guards, star forwards), the ACC and the Big East would be even at 6-6.

Despite popular perception that the Big East is the best conference in the land, clearly the ACC can stake a valid claim to that title.  In this mythical ACC-Big East challenge, the ACC is even better.