2012 NBA Playoff Predictions: First Round

As the NBA Playoffs approach many are doing their predictions as to how the playoffs will unfold, complete with an eventual champion.  That's not my style.  I'd rather make predictions for the first round, watch the games, then re-evaluate as the second round continues because I'm not perfect.  What's the point of a second round projection if both teams were knocked out in the first round. 

Now that I've inspired little to no confidence in my picks, lets get to them.

No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers

They say a picture is worth a thousand words, but I'd argue this one's worth a lot more.  This series, and likely the road to the NBA Finals in the Eastern Conference, comes down to one man—Derrick Rose.

When healthy, the Bulls are right up there with the Miami Heat as the class of the league.  If not, Chicago is still a good team that likely will struggle mightily to score against most playoff opponents.

So is Rose 100 percent?

According to Nick Freidell of ESPNChicago.com the answer is yes.  He quotes players and coaches, all of whom say Rose is getting that great first step back and looking like his old self again. 

But his numbers tell a different story:  15 points and seven assists a game while shooting 32 percent from the floor.  Underwhelming to say the least. 

Key Matchup:  There's an obvious choice here, and its Rose going against Jrue Holiday.  Special consideration to Elton Brand versus Carlos Boozer in a match-up only Coach K would love.

Prediction:  Bulls in six.  I expect Rose will struggle to find his rhythm early in the series, but the Bulls are good enough to win without him against the 76ers.  Expect him to improve as the series hits Games 3 and 4.

No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 7 New York Knicks

There's a growing group of "experts" that consider the New York Knicks threats in the East.

I think they're nuts. 

That's not to say the Knicks aren't a good team—they are.  But the Miami Heat are a great team.  The Knicks will likely have a game or two when Steve Novak and J.R. Smith hit their threes and pull out a tough win, but I don't see how they can consistently outplay the Heat over a seven game series.  They still too often play as individuals instead of a team, and that lack of ball movement won't get it done in the playoffs.

Key Matchup:  The obvious answer is Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony, but I expect they'll both be great.  I'm interested to see how this series plays out between Dwayne Wade and Iman Shumpert. 

Shumpert plays defense very much like Bruce Bowen—in your face and pesky.  I could see that frustrating Wade.  The Knicks also need Shumpert to contribute offensively, something he'll likely struggle to do consistently.

Prediction:  Heat in five.  There will be one game where the Knicks hit their threes and win big, but I expect the Heat will control this series for the most part.

No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Orlando Magic

With Dwight Howard this would be an interesting series.  Without him I expect the Indiana Pacers to be well rested heading to the second round.  There's a lot of talent on this Pacer team, and they have really flown under the radar for most of the season. 

One thing I did find interesting though is how much they rely on Danny Granger.  When he's on they're tough to beat, but when he's not they're mediocre.  Via Bill Simmons' recent column on Grantland.com:

"I watched them all season thinking he was Indiana's one-man litmus test—in other words, when he plays well, they look like a legitimate contender, and when he sucks, they don't. So I couldn't resist looking up his scoring numbers.

Wins: 20.5 PPG, 43.6 percent shooting, 43.9 percent for 3s.
Losses: 15.2 PPG, 37.2 percent shooting, 27.0 percent for 3s.

"

Key Matchup:  Given those numbers, how could I not pick Granger vs. Ryan Anderson?  That's not to necessarily say the two will be guarding each other often, but both are likely their team's best player with Howard out.  If the Magic have any hope of winning, Ryan Anderson needs to score 30-plus per game.

Prediction:  Pacers in four.  I expect this will be a coming out party in which Indiana will show just how good they can be. 

No. 4 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks

This is definitely the most intriguing first round match-up in the Eastern Conference.  Can the Boston Celtics continue to defy age in the second half of the season?  Will the Atlanta Hawks finally live up to expectations even without one of their best low post guys in Al Horford? 

Despite being the lower seed, the Hawks have home court advantage.  But the Celtics have been a different team since moving Kevin Garnett to the 5 and moving Avery Bradley into the starting lineup. 

Key Matchup:  It has to be Bradley vs. Joe Johnson.  If Bradley can continue to play the tough defense he's displayed lately, he may be able to slow down the Hawks go-to guy.  If he can't, Paul Pierce will have to play Johnson, leaving the C's captain less time to concentrate on his offensive game. 

Prediction:  Celtics in seven.  Very rarely do the Celtics make anything easy, and I expect this will be no different.  Expect some tense, emotional games.  In the end the Celtics pull it out because the Hawks need Horford to match up with Garnett down low. 

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Utah Jazz

Last year the San Antonio Spurs looked primed for yet another playoff run only to be derailed by the Memphis Grizzlies in a huge upset. 

Many have compared that Grizzlies team to this years Utah Jazz team, with the frontcourt depth and size of Al Jefferson, Derrick Favors and Paul Millsap, but I'm not sure the comparison is a fair one.  Jefferson is good, but I'm not sure he's able to take over a game like Zach Randolph did last year. 

I also don't think the Jazz have a supporting cast that's as good as the Grizzlies' was last year.  Plus, I can't see Greg Popovich being upset in such stunning fashion two years in a row.

Key Matchup:  It's tough to pick one player from each side here, so I'll just say each teams' frontcourt.  Can Tim Duncan slow down Jefferson, Favors or Millsap over the course of 35-40 minutes?  Will Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair show up or lay an egg? 

Prediction:  Spurs in five.  I didn't even mention him earlier, but Tony Parker is likely the x-factor in this one.  He's had a great season, and I expect it will continue at least through the first round.

No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks

One would think this should be a great series.  You have the defending NBA champion Dallas Mavericks with most of their core back going up against an Oklahoma City team that many consider the favorite to win this year.  But I think that view is short sighted. 

The Mavericks have treated this season like a year-long victory parade, while the Thunder look hungry and ready to take the league by storm.  And to be honest, I don't blame the Mavs for just coasting through most of the season.  They're largely a group of veterans that are coming off an incredible playoff run.  They proved they could win a championship and that's something many greats never get to do. 

Key Matchup:  It will be interesting to see if Jason Kidd has anything left in the tank.  His regular season suggests the answer is no, and if that's the case I don't see how the Mavs can win even one game.  For the Thunder, the key will be Russell Westbrook and his ability to play aggressively while still facilitating.  I don't expect Kidd will guard Westbrook much. 

Prediction:  Thunder in four.  I expect they'll send a message to the league that they're the favorite for a reason.

No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Denver Nuggets

So far I have yet to pick an upset, but that's about to change.  To me, the Los Angeles Lakers are ripe for a first round exit, and the Denver Nuggets are the perfect team to pull it off. 

Ty Lawson is the fastest player in the league right now, Arron Afflalo is a very good defensive guard that can also score and the combination of Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Javale McGee is one of the most athletic groups in the league. Assuming Faried can stay out of foul trouble (he's struggled at times to do so) I could see him frustrating Pau Gasol, and McGee should be able to at least slow down Andrew Bynum. 

Key Matchup:  I have two for this series: Kobe Bryant versus Afflalo, and Devin Ebanks on Danillo Galinari.  The latter matchup clearly favors the Nuggets, and while Bryant is obviously better than Afflalo, I could see that being a tightly contested battle.  Afflalo probably will struggle to find success offensively, but defensively he's the type of player that can potentially frustrate Kobe. 

Prediction:  Nuggets in six.  Metta World Peace's elbow heard round the world may have hurt the Thunder physically, but I think in the long run it's the Lakers that will feel the pain.  Without him they have no one to stop Galinari, who is reportedly healthy.  If this series makes it to Game 7 and he comes back, the Lakers will win—but I don't see them making it that far.

No. 4 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers

I expect this to be the best series of the first round.  The Memphis Grizzlies have the playoff experience, while the Los Angeles Clippers have the athletes and the hype.

In the end I think it comes down to offensive ability, and what I mean by that is the ability to create your own shot.  The Grizzlies have a number of players that can do that, while the Clippers don't.  Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, as talented as they are, have a ways to go before they can be considered complete NBA players.  They both struggle in the half court at creating their own shot.  The same can't be said of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay.

Key Matchup:  Jordan and Gasol.  Gasol has arguably been the best player for the Grizz all season long, and when Jordan can score in double figures and stay out of foul trouble the Clippers are tough to beat.

Prediction:  Grizzlies in seven.  As good as Chris Paul is, he just doesn't have the scoring around him to help the Clippers move on.  I expect this is only the beginning for this group though, and in the future they could certainly contend for championships.