Kentucky Derby 2012: Done Talking and Late Risers to Steer Clear of

Feeling the urge to gamble on horses again?

Don't worry; you're not alone, and the sensation is anything but unusual. After all, the Kentucky Derby is coming up fast.

And, as with just every Triple Crown event at Churchill Downs, the 138th edition will feature plenty of names coming into the fray that are equal parts confounding and attractive, if only because the odds are relatively low and they've just come onto the scene.

I know you're tempted, but please, do yourself a favor and don't waste your hard-earned cash on any of these three Johnny-Come-Lately's.

Done Talking

At 30/1, Done Talking is a pretty good value bet, per se, even if he's not all that likely to finish toward the front of the field at Churchill Downs.

Granted, he's coming off a strong showing at the Grade 3 Illinois Derby, in which he came out on top by way by rallying past a solid field down the stretch.

Still, this colt out of Maryland doesn't have the sort of speed and stamina needed to survive such a trying competition. Done Talking has a slim shot to pull in a minor prize, but shouldn't be counted on to bring home the big one.

Trinniberg

Trinniberg's come on as something of a trendy name, one made even more enticing by his 50/1 odds at the derby and a pair of dominant wins this year.

Trouble is, those W's at the Grade 3 Swale Stakes and the Grade 3 Bay Shore Stakes came on shorter tracks, on which this horse tends to excel.

Churchill Downs is certainly not a short course by any means. As such, this speedster will create plenty of excitement out of the gate, but figures to fall back with the pack during what will be the longest race of his career.

Mark Valeski

Mark Valeski's bound to create some excitement among bettors, as much for three top-two finishes this calendar year as for the 25/1 odds under which he's currently operating.

Bear in mind, though, that he struggled somewhat at the Louisiana Derby, which runs nine furlongs and left that April Fool's Day race with a foot injury.

It would be somewhat foolish, then, to put much money down on Mark Valeski to come up with any better results after 10 furlongs in the Commonwealth.

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