2012 NFL Draft: Recap of Expert Picks from Around the Web
After months of speculation, anticipation, and any other -tion words you can think of, the NFL draft finally happens. With just a few hours to go before the most important day of the year for 32 franchises, everyone and their brother is passing along information about what to expect.
With so much floating around the Internet right now, it can be confusing for fans to get a grasp on what they can expect when the picks get made on Thursday night.
What we are going to do for you is provide all of the best information from the top draft experts around the web to let you know where the surprises are going to come from, who the best value picks will be and the teams that will make the biggest mistakes.
The reason that this event captivates us every year is because of the unknown. Sure, we know that Andrew Luck will be the first pick to the Indianapolis Colts with Robert Griffin likely to be right behind him.
After those two picks, everything looks up in the air right now. We are going to break all of it down for you with as much news and information as we can cram into one convenient package.
ESPN Draft Analyst Mel Kiper Jr.
1 of 8Mel Kiper's final mock draft was released on ESPN.com early Thursday. It is quite a stark contrast to the previous one he released, which means that a lot of teams are shifting gears late in the process. That, or they are providing bogus information to throw everyone off the trail.
Biggest Surprise: Justin Blackmon to Cleveland at No. 4
The surprise is not because the Browns are making a mistake—they desperately need help at the wide receiver position. This is just the highest spot that I have seen Blackmon put since St. Louis traded the No. 2 pick to Washington.
As far as pure talent and future potential is concerned, which is what teams should be drafting for, there are better players available (Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne).
If wide receiver was the only area the Browns needed help, then by all means go for Blackmon. I would say the team would be better off grabbing Richardson with the fourth pick and looking to add a receiver with the No. 22 pick or wait until Friday and use the 37th pick to get better value.
Perhaps the Browns value Blackmon as the best player available, and they are going to do whatever they can to get him.
ESPN & Scouts Inc.'s Todd McShay
2 of 8Unlike his fellow ESPN cohort, McShay's latest mock draft follows a lot more of the conventional wisdom that we have all been reading and hearing for months.
The biggest surprise is Luke Kuechly going to Tampa Bay at No. 5, but given the way interior linebackers are valued and the Boston College star's instincts, workouts and natural tackling ability, it is not that much of a reach.
There are a lot of good value picks on McShay's board right now, with Fletcher Cox going to Philadelphia at No. 15 and Melvin Ingram to the New York Jets at No. 16, but there is one that stands out above the rest.
Best Value Pick: David DeCastro to San Diego at No. 18
The Chargers desperately need to upgrade their offensive line after last season's debacle. Philip Rivers struggled thanks in large part to a lack of protection up front.
This team is going to go as far as Rivers takes them, but if he doesn't have time to throw, it is going to be hard for him to succeed.
DeCastro is by far the best interior lineman available in this draft. He has the versatility to play four positions on the line. He should be a top 10-12 pick, but if team needs push him down to the bottom half of the round, the Chargers will be ecstatic to pencil him into their starting lineup next season.
Pro Football Talk's Evan Silva
3 of 8Pro Football Talk's Evan Silva has put out his fourth mock draft of the year, with by far the most interesting and unpredictable picks of anyone I have seen. If things play out the way he sees them, it will make for a fascinating three hours of television drama.
Biggest Surprise: Chandler Jones to Philadelphia at No. 15
Silva writes that "teams are smitten with Jones' length and non-stop motor." That may be, but do the Eagles really need another pass-rushing defensive end right now?
Jason Babin (31) and Trent Cole (29) are two of the best edge-rushers in the NFL and still have at least three peak years ahead of them.
It's not that Jones is a bad value pick at No. 15, but Dontari Poe is still on the board and he plays the position of biggest need for the Eagles. He is a project, but it is on the team to help develop these high-upside players that have yet to tap into their potential.
If a team is afraid to go after a potential star who fills their biggest need because of concerns about his development process, that speaks a lot about how confident they are in their coaching staff as it does the player.
CBS Sports' Pete Prisco
4 of 8Give credit to Pete Prisco, at least he knows that right now he is probably not going to get a lot of picks in his final mock draft right, referring to it as "paralysis by analysis—just like the teams doing the evaluating."
Unlike Silva, Prisco's draft is much more by-the-numbers with what we have heard over the last few weeks. That seems to be the safest way to go right now, especially with so much smoke being blown to force teams to make a panic move.
Best Pick: Coby Fleener to Houston at No. 26
While Fleener might be a better value a few picks later, he fits exactly what the Texans need to take the next step following the most successful season in franchise history last year.
One big problem the team ran into was not having another pass-catching option behind Andre Johnson. A wide receiver who can make plays would be great for the Texans, but Fleener is a terrific fallback plan.
His size and red zone potential is off the charts. To be successful in the NFL, teams must have versatile tight ends who can make plays. Fleener can join that elite group in the not-too-distant future.
CBS Sports' Pat Kirwin
5 of 8With Pat Kirwin releasing his final mock draft three days ago instead of on Wednesday or Thursday, he has avoided most of these last second rumors and speculation that has come out. It allowed him to just go with his gut, and inside information, to make picks.
A few early surprises, like Stephon Gilmore going to Carolina, make you take notice, but for the most part things follow the typical pattern at the top.
It is when you get into the teens and near the bottom of the round where the real head-scratchers take place.
Predicted Pick With Virtually No Chance of Happening: Michael Brockers to Denver at No. 25
In an ideal world the Broncos would get either Brockers or Fletcher Cox to fill that huge hole in the middle of their defensive line.
Unfortunately we live in reality and Brockers is going to be long gone before the Broncos pick. It is possible that Dontari Poe, the third-best defensive tackle available, will be waiting when the team picks, but Brockers and Cox are going to be gone.
If the Broncos can't get a defensive tackle, it would not be a surprise to see them go after a player like Coby Fleener or Kendall Wright to make life easier for Peyton Manning.
Sports Illustrated's Don Banks
6 of 8When Don Banks dives into the draft, he really dives in. He released his seventh(!) and final mock draft of the year on Wednesday.
The level of detail he provides in his analysis of the picks is as good as anyone out there, especially when telling us why a team is thinking the way it is.
Overrated Pick Now That Will Look Great In Three Years: Stephen Hill to Baltimore at No. 29
Hill made quite an impression at the scouting combine, with his track star speed and 6'4", 215-pound frame there is a lot to like about the Georgia Tech star as a prospect. It doesn't hurt that he averaged 29.3 yards per reception last year.
As great as those tangible items look, Hill has a lot of maturing to do as a football player. He wasn't asked to do anything in college except run straight and catch the ball. He could get away with that against inferior competition, but he has to learn to play the position before he can be a star.
Given that the Ravens already have a lot of possession receivers who can go over the middle, they need someone who can stretch the field. It will take Hill time to get used to the game, but when he does, he will be a star.
NFL Network Draft Analyst Mike Mayock
7 of 8One of the great voices of the NFL Draft, Mike Mayock is not afraid to ruffle some feathers with his predictions this year. He doesn't exactly go crazy in his one and only mock draft, but he lays out smart, logical scenarios for every team on Thursday.
Best Value Pick That Doesn't Necessarily Fill An Immediate Need: Stephon Gilmore to Philadelphia at No. 15
Earlier we talked about the Eagles desperately needing to go after a defensive tackle instead of trying to add another pass-rusher.
That still holds true here, but there is reason for the Eagles to be on the lookout for help in the secondary very soon.
As Mayock points out, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is going to be a free agent after the season and the team just traded Asante Samuel. Suddenly that deep secondary doesn't look as strong as it did a year ago.
Gilmore is easily the second-best cornerback in the draft, with prototypical size and speed for a shutdown defender with great hands and arguably the best pure cover skills in the draft.
Bleacher Report's Draft Expert Matt Miller
8 of 8We conclude this rundown of mocks with our very own draft guru Matt Miller offering his final take on what he expects from all seven rounds this weekend.
The most controversial selection on Miller's board will be Justin Blackmon going No. 13 to Arizona. The Cardinals would love to see him at that spot, but the odds of it actually happening are slim to none.
Best Pick That A Team Should Make But Probably Won't: Melvin Ingram to Jacksonville at No. 7
Ingram is the best defensive lineman regardless of position in this draft. He has the speed and quickness off the edge to be a dominant pass-rusher, with the size and strength to play at defensive tackle from time to time.
It is rare to find a versatile defensive lineman like Ingram in any class, so to possibly see him sitting at No. 7 for a Jacksonville team that is struggling to find any kind of identity would be huge.
Sadly, this franchise is known for doing strange things on draft night (hello, Tyson Alualu). Maybe the new regime will turn things around, but it is one of those things that we have to see before we believe it.
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