NBA Playoffs Predictions 2012: Separating True Contenders from Pretenders

Any team with even the slightest chance of somehow making it to the NBA Finals has probably been labeled a "contender" at least once this season. 

Take it with a grain of salt.

Theoretical possibilities don't count for much in the postseason. Only a few of the title hopefuls have the playoff experience, talent and winning pedigree to make the cut. With the regular season all but in our rear-view mirror, it's time to take stock of which teams have the goods.

Here is the definitive breakdown of who's contending and who's pretending in 2012. 

Chicago Bulls—Contenders

A healthy Derrick Rose and an apparently re-energized Richard Hamilton could make the difference for what is arguably the deepest team in the league. The Lakers, Spurs, Mavericks and Celtics have proved that defense still wins championships, and Tom Thibodeau's team plays some exceptional defense. They have a good chance to win against any given team on any given night.

Miami Heat—Pretenders

This looks like LeBron James' year at first glance, but a second-round series against the deceptively-deep Indiana Pacers could take its toll on a Miami core that's logged a lot of minutes. Indiana shares the basketball, plays great defense and has a huge advantage (literally) with All-Star center Roy Hibbert.

Don't let the lack Indiana's star power fool you—this team has the third seed for a reason and could easily push the Heat six games. The Heat could even find their hands full with Carmelo Anthony and the resurgent New York Knicks in the first round—like Hibbert, Tyson Chandler could exploit his size advantage. 

Indiana Pacers—Pretenders

The Pacers are good enough to shock some people in the postseason, but they're not going all the way. But it would a great story if they did...

Boston Celtics—Contenders

You just can't count out gutsy veterans who save their best stuff for the playoffs, and Boston has proved as much since the All-Star break. And besides the old guys, Rajon Rondo is a beast who makes everyone around him exponentially better with 11.6 assists a game.

New York Knicks—Pretenders

Carmelo Anthony would take his stardom to another level if he brought a title to New York, but it's probably not happening this year. He's done his part to be sure, but Amar'e Stoudemire isn't at his best, and Jeremy Lin's loss is devastating.

The Knicks could pull off some upsets against the Heat and make things interesting, though—this is a pretty deep team playing good defense nowadays. 

San Antonio Spurs—Contenders

The Spurs have been nothing short of dominant lately, winning eight in a row and regularly dropping teams by 20 points (including the Lakers twice). This team's depth rivals Chicago's, and the old guys are looking healthy and lively at the moment. So is the not-so-old Tony Parker. Watch out for Tim Duncan's fifth ring.

Oklahoma City Thunder—Contenders 

You have to like this team's chances in a seven-game series with the Lakers (and such a second-round scenario would very likely go seven games). When Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden are clicking, it's hard for anyone to beat Scott Brooks' club.

Los Angeles Lakers—Pretenders

The Lakers are always a popular pick, but this isn't their year. Give Mike Brown an offseason to get Andrew Bynum's head on straight, and give the team a chance to bond with Ramon Sessions. They can contend for another couple years without question—but not this time.

Los Angeles Clippers—Pretenders

Los Angeles will have a rough time getting past the Grizzlies, much less another two rounds against teams that just be plain better than the Clippers are at this point. Blake Griffin still needs to round out his game some more, and this team hasn't been tested in the playoffs; look at this year as a stepping stone to better things.

Memphis Grizzlies—Contenders (maybe)

Memphis has an outside shot, but it would likely require them to beat the Spurs in the second round and the Thunder or Lakers after that. The Grizzlies did hand it to a banged-up Spurs team last year, and they have looked awfully good against elite teams lately. So, they're contenders...maybe.