2012 NFL Draft: 5 Teams That Will Take Too Big a Risk in 1st Round

The NFL Draft is a fascinating event to witness. Teams can make or break their franchise with a single pick in the first round. Draftees can have a resounding effect on teams for multiple years. Drafting a Peyton Manning gives you 10-15 years of winning seasons. Drafting a JaMarcus Russell leaves you still searching for answers five years later.

To some teams, Draft Day is a time to fortify your offensive or defensive lines, or add depth in the secondary. For some it is a chance to become a contender immediately. Andy Dalton and AJ Green turned the Bengals into a playoff team their first year and Cam Newton made the Panthers relevant. 

Predicting the future is a risky business to be in. However, this coming weekend, that is exactly what NFL executives, scouts and coaches will be doing. Some will strike it big, some will improve slightly, but some may reach too far and find themselves having severe deja vu next April. 

Cleveland Browns, Pick No. 4

The Cleveland Browns have made a habit out of playing in NFL Purgatory. A common sleeper-pick for analysts, the Browns seem to consistently let down each season. However, recent history shows that when drafting this high up, Cleveland brass has had some success. 

In recent years, the Browns have come away with Joe Haden and Joe Thomas, both successful first-round picks. The issue in Cleveland is at quarterback and the skill positions. One of the league's worst offenses doesn't strike fear into the defense-heavy AFC North with Colt McCoy under center. 

The lackluster play by McCoy, even with loads of potential in receivers like Greg Little, could hint at the Browns taking a risk on a QB like Ryan Tannehill. 

Miami Dolphins, Pick No. 8

If all the Browns' talk is just that, talk, then Ryan Tannehill will be an attractive option for Miami in the eight spot. However, looking at the Dolphins roster, is QB the biggest concern?

Taking Tannehill here is a multi-faceted risk for Miami. They are risking first that Tannehill isn't a bust or just below average. They are also risking Matt Moore moving on and showing vast improvement somewhere else. 

I like Moore as a quarterback, and Miami was playing very well under him in the second half of 2011. Tannehill mucks up the works if they select him. The Dolphins shouldn't take this risk and should play it safe or take a chance on a WR to replace the departed Brandon Marshall.

Carolina Panthers, Pick No. 9

Cam Newton had an immediate impact on the Carolina Panthers offense. He was a slam-dunk pick for the executives in Carolina and has undoubtedly filled them with a lot of confidence going into the 2012 draft. 

Confidence in a situation like this can be very dangerous. With Newton under center and the revival of Steve Smith's career, the Panthers seem like a team on the brink of contention. Newton will become more consistent in his second year, and with the ninth pick, Carolina can really help him out.

When you are this close to being a perennial playoff team, you have to be careful. A bust of a top-10 pick this year and Carolina doesn't improve as much as they need to, and they wind up right back here next April. 

Buffalo Bills, Pick No. 10

Signing Mario Williams to a massive contract gave Buffalo a lot of publicity this offseason. The Bills coming off another poor season, finishing 6-10, needed that jolt of press. 

With the Jets and Patriots stealing most of the AFC East headlines last season, Buffalo has slowly built up a possibly elite defense. The Bills have invested money in QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and WR Stevie Johnson. However, both players have been inconsistent with their production.

With their No. 10 pick, the Bills should probably shore up their O-line to protect their well-paid signal-caller. However, they have shown they want to make news, so taking Michael Floyd here is a possibility.

Floyd missed time at Notre Dame for both injury problems and legal troubles. Johnson has been fined quite a bit in the past for knuckle-headed decisions, and playing Floyd opposite him would be taking a big risk.  

Cincinnati Bengals, Pick No. 17

The Cincinnati Bengals, like the Carolina Panthers, are on the brink. A little more so in that they were a playoff team. However, as teams learn more about AJ Green and Andy Dalton, defenses will do a better job stopping them as we learned towards the end of last season against the elite teams. 

The inherent risk here for the Bengals is to "let it be" with their offense. Cincinnati knows they can't stand pat, particularly in the toughest division in football. The CBs of the AFC North in particular as studs all around. The Bengals need to help Green and Dalton out by getting a viable No. 2 or 3 receiver.

Jerome Simpson showed marked improvement in 2011; however with the dynamic talents available at that position, choosing the correct one would drastically improve the Bengals' chances to repeat 2011 or better.