Kentucky Derby 2012: Don't Expect Winner to Break Triple Crown Drought

It happens every year. A horse wins the Kentucky Derby, and the chatter begins.

Is this the year a horse wins the Triple Crown? Will the horse and jockey's style serve them well at the Preakness Stakes or Belmont Stakes? Will another horse emerge from the shadows and spoil our fun?

And each year since 1978, that's exactly what has happened. Another horse always seems to spoil the fun. Hell, we normally don't even get a horse that wins the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the last being Big Brown in 2008.

Well, color me discouraged again this year. The field is deep, though no single horse has truly stood out. I suppose you could make the argument for Bodemeister, but history suggests that won't be the case.

One hundred and thirty years of history, according to Gary West of ESPN:

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Not since Apollo in 1882 has there been a Kentucky Derby winner who didn't race as a 2-year-old, and that's like saying "never." The history is clear: Johnny-come-latelies never win the Derby. Then again, the Arkansas Derby is clear, too: Never say "never."

Bodemeister, whose recent performance in Arkansas surpasses anything seen this Triple Crown season, could kick the last shibboleth of the Derby into the Churchill Downs infield, where it'll disappear into the sodden earth under the tread of a throng and the weight of 130 years. Yes, Bodemeister could become the first since Apollo, and that's like saying the first ever.

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It seems unlikely that a horse that made its debut in January and has only raced four times—and yes, never as a two-year-old—will take the Derby, let alone win the Triple Crown. Yet, after his excellent Arkansas Derby, Bodmeister will be seen by some as the favorite.

Perhaps if he can buck 130 years of history by winning the Derby, he'll have a bit of magic on his side, enough to ride to a Triple Crown.

Perhaps.

Whichever horse wins, we'll all get sucked up in the Triple Crown fever again. Even if history suggests this year won't be the year, just like the year before it.

Call me pessimistic, but I just don't think this is the year that changes.

Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets light the lamp like Danny Briere.