2012 NFL Draft: San Diego Chargers' First-Round Odds

The San Diego Chargers' AJ Smith is one of the hardest GMs to read going into the draft, and this year is no different.

He is once again at a pivot point where a best player available could easily fall, but he could easily make a pick seen as a reach. He could also trade up or trade down. 

15 percent — Trade Down — Yes, the favorite is a trade down. The Chargers are at a break point in the round where there should be a player or two available that some have as a top 10 talent, but it probably won't be the guy AJ is targeting. Smith, like Ozzie Newsome, usually operates with complete clarity about his board and won't hesitate to trade down unless there is a clear top player on his board there.

10 percent — Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois — Mercilus looks like a good bet to be there, so we have to consider him in the group of most likely picks if the Chargers stay home. He has the game to be a high impact two-way OLB in the 3-4, but he needs some time to develop his game.

10 percent — Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama — Upshaw is the high-floor "layup" to instantly upgrade the Chargers long-term outlook at OLB. The team is solid at the position with the addition of Jarret Johnson, but Upshaw projects as a ten-year starter, while Johnson is a temporary fix.

10 percent — Mark Barron, S, Alabama — Barron fixes a hole instantly, but there is the chance of him going in the 14-to-17 range. There's strong signals the Chargers like Harrison Smith (more on that later). Like Upshaw, he would be an easy pick, but Smith rarely takes the easy route in the first round.

10 percent — Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame — This could seem strange in light of the outlay of big bucks for Robert Meachem, but Floyd is the kind of talent any team would consider in the second half of the first round, regardless of the current state of their roster at WR.

10 percent — Cordy Glenn, OL, Georgia — AJ Smith has never taken an offensive lineman in the first round, but Glenn's ability to play guard and right tackle (and maybe left) give him a ton of positional value for a team that has been patching their offensive line a lot lately. He could break the streak.

5 percent — Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama — Cornerback isn't a huge need, but Kirkpatrick is the kind of player that makes it easy to talk yourself into taking him. If he gets through the 14-to-17 gauntlet, he could be the pick.

5 percent — Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC — If the Chargers are strictly looking at ceiling and speed rush in their OLB prospects, Perry could rate high, and he'll almost certainly be there for them.

5 percent — Michael Brockers, DT, LSU — Brockers projects well as a 3-4 end, and he oozes upside as a sizable and athletic specimen. You can't rule him out.

5 percent — Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis — Poe's potential as a BJ Raji type nose in a 3-4 could be enticing for the Chargers. He might even be able to play some defensive end in their scheme. The perceived chances of him being there at No. 18 continue to rise.

5 percent — Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford — Another player that could end the streak of no offensive linemen in the first for Smith, Martin was a good left tackle for Andrew Luck, but he would push Clary at right tackle right away.

2.5 percent — Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa — Reiff would be much higher on a list of Chargers targets, but he is unlikely to make it past Arizona or the Jets, in my estimation. There is still buzz of a Bryan Bulaga-esque fall, so the chances are greater than zero that he'll be there. But then the Smith disinclination of taking OL in the first comes into play.

2.5 percent — Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama — Now we get to the AJ Smith surprise picks. Hightower would be an admission of missing on Jonas Mouton last year in the second, but he would also provide some edge rush punch in addition to anchoring the run defense up the middle.

2.5 percent — Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame — If Mark Barron goes in the 14-17 rounds and Smith is not far behind on AJ's board, this could be the shocking pick.

2.5 percent — Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse — Jones can conceivably play end and outside linebacker in the 3-4, and his upside in the eye of the right beholder could merit a pick here.