2012 NBA Mock Draft: Can't-Miss Prospects Who Must Deliver for 1st Round Teams
Every draft selection involves a certain amount of risk, but some more so than others. Here's one scenario for the 2012 NBA Draft where we separate the sure things from the high-risk projects.
1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)
You won't find more of a sure thing than Anthony Davis. He has all the athletic tools and talent a scout could ask for, and—more importantly—he's a proven winner. Davis might not average much more than 10 points as a rookie, but there's no question he'll make an immediate and sizable impact defensively. For that reason alone, he's about as low-risk at lottery picks come.
2. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)
Some mock drafts have the Wizards taking Thomas Robinson here, but Washington is still developing Trevor Booker and could probably pick up a complementary piece like Carl Landry or Kris Humprhies for a platoon at the four position. Washington absolutely needs an upgrade at small forward, though, and Kidd-Gilchrist is a can't-miss solution. He's a complete package, and he has the kind of focus and intensity the Wizards desperately need.
3. New Orleans Hornets: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)
Even if the Hornets retain Carl Landry, they could still use a guy with Robinson's physical presence and defensive ability. Paired with Emeka Okafor and/or Chris Kaman, Robinson would instantly give the Hornets an above average front court. We also know Robinson knows what it takes to win at the college level, and New Orleans would benefit from the added edge right away.
4. Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond, C (UConn)
Drummond would give the Kings an immediate upgrade defensively and allow DeMarcus Cousins to focus on what he's best at: scoring. But while he has seemingly endless upside, Drummond's freshman campaign at UConn was inconsistent enough to raise some flags. He may be somewhat of a high risk with the potential for a very high reward.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)
The Cavaliers have needs at the two and the three, and Barnes would go a long way in solving one of those. Barnes is a sure thing in at least one sense—we know he's pretty good. Just how good he'll be is another question altogether. Despite his scoring ability, he might not have superstar instincts or athleticism. Nevertheless, he should be able to start for the young Cavaliers from day one and make them a better team.
6. Toronto Raptors: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)
From Toronto's standpoint, any infusion of efficient scoring is a can't-miss proposition. Beal would allow DeMar DeRozan to spend more time at small forward while providing Jose Calderon with an effective perimeter target. If Beal settles in well, he could get enough looks to earn some Rookie of the Year consideration—he'll start to look good sooner rather than later.
7. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)
Marshall has great size and uncanny passing ability—he would be the perfect replacement for the electric but inconsistent Raymond Felton. His distributing instincts would pay immediate dividends surrounded by shooters like Nic Batum and Wesley Matthews. He'd also get LaMarcus Aldridge some nice mid-range looks. Marshall's also a smart floor general who should learn the NBA game quickly and fit right in to a young, improving team.
8. Detroit Pistons: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)
Jones would fit in well alongside Greg Monroe and give Detroit solid length and defensive presence in the paint. More importantly, he would give Detroit someone capable of playing above the rim and from the perimeter alike. Still, Jones is anything but a guarantee given his up-and-down seasons at Baylor, and there's a good chance Jason Maxiell could continue getting starts in the short term.
9. Utah Jazz: Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)
With only one more season left on Devin Harris' contract, the Jazz need a point guard and Lillard could be their guy. Lillard could end up becoming a younger, better version of Harris. Still, it should take him some time to improve his passing court vision and integrate himself into Tyrone Corbin's rotation, especially if Alec Burks' inconsistent playing time is any indication.
10. New Orleans Hornets: Terrence Jones, SF (Kentucky)
Jones has worlds of potential, and the Hornets could certainly use his versatility as they build around Eric Gordon and a bevy of other young assets. In fact, Monty Williams will have so many prospects to juggle that it might be hard for a guy like Jones to get big minutes right away.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Tyler Zeller (North Carolina)
With Greg Oden out and Marcus Camby traded, Zeller could immediately earn himself some serious playing time with the Trail Blazers. He might not have the highest ceiling, but he's a low-risk option sure to quickly make a difference for a team like Portland.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)
Henson offers the defensive talent and athleticism to help a team with need for help at power forward, and the Bucks could very well be that team if Ersan Ilyasova escapes by free agency. Henson might take a while to come into his own, though—his development could resemble Ed Davis' experience in Toronto. The jury is still out, there.
13. Utah Jazz: Austin Rivers, PG (Duke)
If Austin Rivers eventually learns to play the point, he could become a versatile backcourt asset for a team like the Jazz. Even if he doesn't, though, he should quickly become a viable sixth man who will come into games unafraid to shoot. Given his winning pedigree and obvious talent, Rivers will pan out one way or the other.
14. Phoenix Suns: Jeremy Lamb, SG (UConn)
There are no questions about Jeremy Lamb's talent, and he could be a steal this late in the draft for the Suns. What's less clear is whether Lamb has the drive to excel in the NBA. That mean's he's not quite a guarantee, but he's well worth the risk.
15. Houston Rockets: Jared Sullinger (Ohio State)
Sullinger could use a couple of years coming off the bench and learning to hold his own against taller NBA bodies. With Luis Scola set at power forward for the immediate future, the Rockets could be an ideal opportunity to do just that. Until Sullinger can prove his strength can compensate for opponents' superior length, he'll remain somewhat of a gamble.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)
Philadelphia could use scoring help in the backcourt, and Ross will probably be their best available option at this point in the draft. Ross could use some work on fundamentals like ball-handling and shot selection, but there's enough talent here to count him in as a relatively sure thing.
17. New Jersey Nets: Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi St.)
Moultrie's size and defense could prove valuable right away for a team like the Nets, especially if Kris Humphries departs via free agency. In terms of his all-around game, though, he's still very much a project with unknown potential.
18. Denver Nuggets: Tony Wroten, Jr. PG (Washington)
Wroten could wind up becoming one of the best players in this draft down the road, but he's hardly a sure thing. He continues to struggle with his shot, decision-making and ball control. He could be a solid backup for Ty Lawson for the time being, though.
19. Houston Rockets: Dion Waiters, PG/SG (Syracuse)
Waiters has the talent to wind up much higher in the draft, and if his workouts go well, he very just might. The question marks that will surround him early on, though, are whether or not he fits in as a shooting guard or at the point. A bit undersized for the two, this kind of uncertainty could stunt his growth initially.
20. Atlanta Hawks: Doron Lamb, SG (Kentucky)
A successful NCAA tournament will help Lamb's draft stock, and a team in need of perimeter shooting will jump all over him. Like Waiters, though, his size may hurt him early on and make him a somewhat risky selection.
21. Boston Celtics: Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois)
The Celtics need a center, and Leonard might be the kind of project they're willing to wait for. Still, he needs to add muscle and develop his offensive game. Until we see any signs of that happening, the jury will remain out on Leonard.
22. Orlando Magic: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky)
The younger Teague could wind up every bit as good as his brother, and Orlando could use a guy like that backing up (and eventually replacing) Jameer Nelson. Teague may not have exceptional upside, but he's a pretty safe bet this late in the draft.
23. Memphis Grizzlies: Jeff Taylor, SF (Vanderbilt)
The Grizzlies lost some wing depth after trading Sam Young, and Taylor would fit in as a solid backup for Rudy Gay. Whether he ever becomes more than a reserve will depend on if he can supplement his exceptional defense with a more well-rounded offensive game.
24. Boston Celtics: Royce White, SF (Iowa St.)
White has plenty of talent, but his struggles with anxiety and fear of flying suggest he could be a huge risk.
25. Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)
Nicholson has steadily improved and developed an impressive scoring touch with the range to match. He probably won't see a lot of playing time early on, though, so there's no telling where his career will head.
26. Cleveland Cavaliers: C.J. Leslie, F (NC State)
Leslie has the kind of athleticism and upside that usually puts a guy squarely in the lottery. He's still a work-in-progress, however—no promises here.
27. Golden State Warriors: Moe Harkless, SF (St. John's)
Harkless has talent, but he's yet to show the kind of consistency and focus that are required for a successful pro career. Take a wait-and-see approach with this one.
28. Miami Heat: Fab Melo, C (Syracuse)
Melo has all the things you'd like to see from a young center—he can block shots, move well and explode to the rim. Still, his all-around game and basketball IQ remain raw, so he'll remain a project in the early going.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Draymond Green, SF (Michigan St.)
Green was a great player in college, but it's unclear how his size and skill set will translate to the NBA. He's a bit short for a small forward, but he doesn't quite have a guard's mentality. That could spell trouble.
30. Chicago Bulls: Evan Fournier, SG (France)
Fournier is a nice gamble for an already-established team like the Bulls. He may not play right away, and he may never be any good, but he's a smart move for a team that can afford to take the chance.
