NBA Draft 2012: Harrison Barnes and 6 Riskiest Projected Lottery Picks

As the NBA draft rolls around in June, there will be a lot of potential talent on the board, but as you know, not all of that talent will pan out.

In the NBA, teams draft on potential as much as they do need, and in that case, teams often roll the dice on the high ceiling of potential prospects instead of leaning towards selecting a sure thing.

Here's a look at some potential risks that will surely be taken with lottery picks.

Andre Drummond, Connecticut

On the surface, Drummond has as much upside as anyone in this draft not named Anthony Davis, but while his 6"10", 270-pound frame translates to the NBA game very well, you would have like to see some signs of dominance during his freshman season at U Conn.

Drummond has a nice future ahead of him, but he's a risk considering he averaged only 10.2 PPG and 7.7 RPG. Dig a little deeper, though, and you find 16 of 34 games in which Drummond was held in single digits scoring and 13 of 34 games in which Drummond was held to five rebounds or less.

That included UConn's final NCAA Tournament loss to Iowa State in which Drummond was limited to two points and three rebounds. 

He's got talent, but probably needs another year of school.

Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

Barnes is a scorer, but he's a risk because he does little else well.

He's not a rebounder (5.0 RPG) and not a passer (1.0 APG), so if Barnes is to make an impact, it has to be purely as a scorer. Given the way March went for him, potential teams have to be weary.

Barnes certainly showed the season that he can play with a quality point guard, but when Kendall Marshall was out of the lineup, he struggled to get his own shot.

In the NCAA Tournament, Barnes averaged only 14.0 PPG, well below the 17.4 PPG he averaged throughout the season, but more disturbingly, he did it by shooting only 32 percent from the floor (20-of-61).

Barnes is another guy with talent, but you have to make sure he's the scorer everyone thinks he can be.

Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State

I for one am very high on Moultrie and feel he’s a lottery pick, but usually, guys that have only one good season out of three college years can be a bit risky.

His 16.4 PPG and 10.5 RPG look great, and he has all the potential in the world, but he didn’t lead his team to the NCAA Tournament, and certainly, there will be some risks surrounding drafting Moultrie as a lottery pick.

He’s that typical guy that will either be a star or a bust, with very little room in between.

Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Sullinger put together a solid college career and averaged 17.5 PPG and 9.2 RPG in leading the Buckeyes to the Final Four.

Yet there are concerns about his athletic ability and if he can be effective against longer and more athletic NBA defenders, which he will see plenty of.

Austin Rivers, Duke

Rivers averaged 15.5 PPG as a freshman at Duke, but while he will be highly regarded on draft day, there’s a lot about his game that should concern NBA teams, at least right away.

He doesn’t play well without the ball and doesn’t use his teammates effectively, going into isolation mode a little too often. More concerning, though, is that he has an inconsistent jumper and isn’t a great free-throw shooter for a guard (.658).

Perry Jones III, Baylor

Perhaps there’s no riskier pick in the draft than Jones.

He’s got the talent to go in the top five, but his inconsistent play during the season and his disappearing acts in big games draws a ton of concern.

Jones’ skill set says he should have been dominant in college, but he just didn’t show that ability frequently enough, and his numbers (13.5 PPG and 7.6 RPG) don’t suggest a dominant player.

Even more concerning is that Jones averaged 13.9 PPG and 7.2 RPG as a freshman, meaning he showed next to no improvement from one season to the next.