Mid Major Game of the Night

A short break from the all mid-major team, and there is a TON of great basketball tonight. I haven’t talked much about the CAA, a conference on the rise and on target for two (MAYBE three) bids this year. Well, tonight features a matchup between two of those three contenders, George Mason and Northeastern. They are both top 100 teams according to the Pomeroy Ratings and superb conference marks, at 7-1 and 6-0 respectively. These two teams, along with VCU (who George Mason faces on Saturday) will be engaged in a season long fight for resume builders and conference wins, both of which are crucial for a tournament bid.

George Mason looks like they are finally back on track after their miraculous 2006 NCAA tournament run in which they reached the Final Four before losing to the eventual champions, Florida. The Patriots lead the conference with a 14-3 record this season, a 9-0 home record, and their three losses combined for 13 points, all of which were close until the final minute. They may not have played the most difficult schedule, but wins over MAC surprise, Ohio, and the AEC leading Vermont Catamounts can never hurt. Their defense has been anything but disappointing this season, holding opponents to 59.5 points (25th nationally) and 39.2% from the field (41st nationally). And it’s not like they have difficult scoring either. The Patriots put in 68.8 points of their own on 45.7% shooting. They also lead the CAA in taking care of the ball, only committing 12.6 turnovers per game. Although they have no established scoring leader (nobody averages over 11.6 ppg), they can go to just about anyone on the floor when points are needed.

Northeastern comes into the game off their first conference loss, a 5-point stunner to Drexel. Their schedule, although more challenging, has not produced any quality wins (with the exception of Providence). They seem to go through sporadic scoring droughts at times, and when leading scorer Matt Janning is not on the floor, there seems to be little fluency in the offense. The Huskies appear as of now to be the odd team out in the CAA tournament race, and they will need some profound conference wins (especially tonight and against VCU), if they hope to grab an at-large bid. Tonight’s home game is essentially a must win, since they need to prove that they can compete with other talented teams (only a +2.6 scoring margin). Home games typically come easy, but when it is against a stellar opponent like George Mason, who knows what can happen. The Huskies are the worst rebounding team in the CAA (31.8 per game) and only average 11.4 assists per game as a team. There’s a perfect indicator of a very improbable tournament bid, especially if they are not able to fight their way past the other CAA powerhouses.

Tonight is a much bigger game for the Huskies than they probably realize, but a win here will say a lot about both teams and the CAA as a whole. The conference will be completely unpredictable until March, where the true leaders will distinguish themselves from the pack.