2012 NFL Mock Draft: Teams That Can Afford to Gamble in 1st Round

Gambling on a pick in the first round of the NFL draft is not always good idea, but it happens each and every year.

The new CBA allows for teams to take risks more frequently, though, and we've already seen it have a huge impact on the draft process.

With a full year now under their belts, general managers have a chance to be more creative than ever, and some teams can actually afford to take chances in their quest for a Super Bowl title.

Who are those teams this year? Let's take a look.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

The Colts have no luxury of missing on this pick, and that is why Andrew Luck is the sure-fire selection. Even entertaining the idea of taking Robert Griffin III is a huge mistake.

2. *Washington Redskins (5-11): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

The Redskins have been searching for a quarterback for years now, but if they miss here, it will assuredly cost Mike Shanahan his job. Giving up three first-round picks and a second is a risk, but this team has no choice but to take a chance here.

RGIII has sold himself as a potential superstar, and in any other year, he'd likely be the No. 1 overall pick.

He has a ton of potential and is worth the risk.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

There is no gamble here for the Vikes at a position of need. They could gamble a bit on Claiborne here if they chose.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

The Browns don't have the luxury of missing on this pick here—or wherever they ultimately pick. Last year, they traded away the opportunity to draft Julio Jones, and they desperately need playmakers more than anything else.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

Greg Schiano doesn't have the luxury of missing on the first pick of his era in Tampa. 

6. *St. Louis Rams (2-14): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Like the Browns, the Rams have to do all they can to land a playmaker.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

The Jaguars have made reaching a habit in recent drafts, and this year they have to change that.

8. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Miami made such a mess of things this offseason, they simply cannot afford to not strike gold in this year's draft. Unfortunately, they need to find their quarterback of the future as well, so reaching in the first round is a necessity at this point.

The Dolphins may even trade up to land Tannehill to dismay of many fans—he's not ready to start immediately.

9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

If the Panthers want to make something of Cam Newton's early years in Carolina, they have to find a way to stop opposing offenses.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Bills are actually the first team truly capable of gambling a bit here. They do have some needs, but they could also strike big on a player like Michael Floyd.

In this scenario, they play things safe and take the best player on the board, but it wouldn't a surprise at all to see Buffalo shake things up.

They have a good young nucleus, but they need to continue landing impact players.

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

The Chiefs don't have the luxury of gambling at all. They have the potential to compete in the AFC West immediately, but they need to add players who can help them do that, as opposed to players who will take time to develop.

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Whatever Pete Carroll has been doing in Seattle has been working, so don't expect him to shake things up. He'll continue to build his defense, and the best player available is the likeliest pick.

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

The Cardinals have needs, but they can afford to draft a value player not at a position of need here. The NFC West is as wide open, and Kuechly helps this team immediately.

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Could the Cowboys gamble? Yes. Will they? No. Barron is an immediate starter in their defense.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

The Eagles aren't far off from getting back into the playoffs and don't have huge needs either. But Andy Reid drafts his own way and won't be swayed.

Floyd is a great fit for them, but he could very easily opt for someone like Fletcher Cox.

16. New York Jets (8-8): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

When aren't the Jets gambling?

But seriously, in this scenario, Upshaw is the farthest thing from a risk on the board. He'll walk on the field immediately make a difference for Rex Ryan off the edge—even if his upside is a bit limited.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-8): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

With two first-round picks (thanks Raiders), the Bengals have the luxury of gambling if they want to.

Dre Kirkpatrick isn't much of a gamble, but he is a potential-based pick with elite potential. Whether he'll reach that potential remains to be seen, but the Bengals won't be hurt by finding out.

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Nick Perry, DE, USC

The Chargers aren't really gamblers, but they haven't done a good job with their first-round picks of late. Hitting on a safe player would be the best play, but they aren't likely to take that road.

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

Chicago can afford to gamble if they want, but with so much value on the board, they won't.

20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

Same with the Titans—and Cox is the best value available.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

With the second of their two picks, the Bengals again take a bit of a risk here. Wright has great potential, though, and he warrants the pick at this spot.

Some rankings actually have him ahead of both Blackmon and Floyd.

22. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 10-6): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

After landing arguably the best non-quarterback in the draft in the first round, the Browns play it safe with a solid pickup in Johnny Martin.

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

If the Lions want to take the next step in the postseason, they have to land an immediate contributor. Gilmore is a bit of a risk, but he fills a position of need and offers good value.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

There is no need to gamble when the Steelers have a chance at landing a linebacker with perfectly-suited skills for their system.

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Devon Still, DT, Penn State

The Broncos would be wise to find the best value at a position of need because Peyton didn't join a "developing" team.

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Houston does have the luxury to gamble if they want. They made the postseason last year without their star quarterback and proved they can win with more than just offense.

That said, if they have the opportunity to get even better on that side of the ball, they can do so with a player like Jeffery.

He has elite potential, but he's a boom-or-bust guy.

27. New England Patriots (via NO 13-3): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

The Pats don't have the type of freedom they usually do. They do have two first-round picks and few positions of need, but they're glaring needs.

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

The Packers' 15-1 record may indicate that they can gamble, but they have a huge need for pass-rush help that they'd be foolish to ignore.

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

Baltimore needs youth more than anything, so they can afford to take a chance on someone.

Konz, though, would be their future at center.

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

This is a gamble, but it is one the Niners can afford to make. Not because they were a fumble away from playing in the Super Bowl, but because Stephen Hill could learn a great deal from Randy Moss.

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut

Again, New England can gamble if they want, but they have glaring needs in the defensive front seven.

32. New York Giants (9-7): Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

The reigning champions won their second title in five years because they've drafted well since Jerry Reese took over as GM. He'll continue to do things his way, and that includes taking value when he sees it. The only way they gamble is by taking a player at a position where they already have talent—a method seems to work for them, though. 

*Rams trade No. 2 overall pick to Redskins for 2012, 2013, 2014 first-round picks and 2012 second-round pick.