4 Reasons Why the Buffalo Bills Will Not Draft an Offensive Tackle in Round 1

I have watched mock draft after mock draft assign Riley Reiff to the Buffalo Bills at pick No. 10. 

I've got to be honest, I'm kind of sick of it. 

I don't think it's going to happen, so here are four reasons why I think the Buffalo Bills will head in a different direction with their first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft this year.

1. Buddy Nix Drafts for Value, Not Need

Most of the mock drafts that I've read assigning a left tackle to the Buffalo Bills state the team has a hole at that position and it needs to be filled. 

There's only one problem with that argument: Buddy Nix doesn't draft based on need, he drafts the best available player. 

Two years ago, every mock draft was assigning Bryan Bulaga to Buffalo because the Bills needed a left tackle. As the Bills reached their turn to pick, they quickly called Roger Gooddell to announce the Bills had picked....C.J. Spiller. 

The Bills already had Pro Bowl running back Marshawn Lynch on the roster, along with the more than capable Fred Jackson. They drafted a player at their deepest position.

Why did they do this? Because they felt that Spiller was the best player available. 

Buddy Nix isn't going to draft the player he thinks the Bills need this season, he's going to draft the player that he feels is most likely to have a long, successful career in the NFL. 

I don't think that person is going to end up being an offensive tackle.

2. The Value Isn't There at No. 10 for Left Tackle

At the No. 10 pick, you expect to pick up a guy that can start from day one.

If the Bills try to draft a left tackle at No. 10, I don't think that they'll be able to find that. Matt Kalil is clearly an elite prospect that will be able to start right away as a rookie in the NFL. The next two highest rated prospects at left tackle are Riley Reiff and Jonathan Martin.

I don't feel like either of them can start immediately.

Most scouting reports on Riley Reiff see him as a player that will need to play right tackle for a year or two before sliding over to the left side. His arms aren't as long as what you'd expect from a Pro Bowl left tackle, and to me, seems more like a guy that will become a solid, dependable starter.

Jonathan Martin had a good college career protecting Andrew Luck's blind side. Unfortunately, he only put up 20 reps on the bench press and isn't as strong as his counterparts.

It doesn't sound like Martin is the type of guy that enjoys spending time in the weight room. I hope that changes, because I think he could become elite if he gets stronger, but I'm not willing to make that gamble with the No. 10 pick in the draft.

From most of the reports I've read, the value for both these guys is more in the 20-30 range. An NFL GM would have to reach to take one of them at No. 10.

3. Left Tackle Isn't as Important in Chan Gailey's Offense

The next comment I commonly hear writer's make in their mock drafts is along the lines of "the left tackle is the second most important position on the offense, and the Bills need an elite left tackle to protect Ryan Fitzpatrick's blindside."

I agree that, in a typical NFL offense, the left tackle is a very important position.

In Buffalo, however, the left tackle isn't quite as important.

Last year, Buffalo's offense was one of the most effective units in the NFL to start the season. They weren't clicking well because they had an elite line that let Fitz sit back in the pocket all day and find an open receiver.

Instead, the team was putting up points because Ryan Fitzpatrick is a smart QB with a quick release that can quickly diagnose a defense.

The Bills had success last season using a passing attack that got the ball out of the QB's hands quickly, and I expect that to continue next year.

If Fitz is passing the ball quickly, the value of an elite left tackle is greatly reduced.

4. Chris Hairston's Better Than Most People Give Him Credit for

I would like to preface this slide by saying that I did not steal this idea from Josh Cembellin. I actually wrote most of this article in my application to become a writer for Bleacher Report a day or two before he posted his article. 

However, he did a great write up on Chris Hairston that you can read here.

Chris Hairston was drafted in the fourth round of the 2011 NFL draft. After a lockout-shortened offseason prevented him from having the time needed to acclimate to the NFL, Hairston started seven games for an injured Demetrius Bell. 

During Hairston's rookie season, he actually played pretty well. He had a couple games where his performance left more to be desired, but most of his performances were very respectable. 

Give him another NFL offseason to build on the experience gained as a rookie, and I think Buffalo already has a more than capable starter at left tackle. 

Besides, a couple years ago every mock draft predicted the Bills would take Bulaga because Demetrius Bell wasn't capable of protecting Fitzpatrick's blindside.  

Bell signs with the Eagles this offseason and, suddenly, the Bills have a gaping hole at left tackle that needs to be filled immediately! 

I'm not saying that Hairston is a lock to make the Pro Bowl, but I think that any competent Bills fan can agree that Hairston looked better as a rookie than Bell looked when he first entered Buffalo's starting lineup.      

So Many Options!

Coming into this offseason, the Bills had a gaping hole at defensive end and once free agency started, they signed Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. 

Hole filled. 

Now the Bills have an alleged hole at left tackle that still needs to be filled.

I don't think they'll use pick the No. 10 pick to draft a tackle, which gives Buddy Nix lots of options.

Buffalo could use another linebacker. The team is starting Barnett, Sheppard, and Morrison.

I don't mind those three starters, but if one of those three goes down, I'm kind of scared to see who enters the starting lineup.

Buddy Nix has stated that he likes to draft a cornerback or two every year, so if he feels like there's a lock down corner at No. 10, he can improve the secondary. Terrence McGee and Drayton Florence aren't getting any younger, so it wouldn't hurt to have some more talented youth back there. 

Obviously, Michael Floyd has been a fan favorite. If the team can get a reliable, tall, fast receiver across the field that can take some attention away from Stevie, the offense becomes much scarier. 

My prediction: the Bills draft an offensive tackle somewhere in rounds 2-4 that will back up Hairston and Pears as a swing tackle. 

Buffalo will also draft one more in the late rounds that will spend next season on the practice squad, and possibly get some playing time in the future.