Real Madrid: Why They'll Win Against Bayern Munich in Champions League Semis

When Real Madrid and Bayern Munich face off in the Champions League next week, it may just be the most even matchup the Champions League has seen all season long.

Sure, Real Madrid has the big-name players and the fame, but Bayern Munich are by far the biggest team in Germany with their own group of world-class stars.

Ribery, Mario Gomez, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Arjen Robben and Thomas Mueller are not names to be scoffed at, and each rank comfortably in the top 10 of their respective positions.

This is a matchup fit for a Champions League final. These are two of the world's best three teams facing off against each other, and whoever loses, will lose knowing that they lost to a very impressive team.

However, despite the closeness in individual quality, many other indicators point to Real Madrid winning against Bayern Munich. It'll be close, but I predict Real Madrid will edge out Bayern Munich in the end.

Here's why.

The Managers

Let's not sell Jupp Heynckes short.

The Bayern Munich manager has a very impressive resume. He's currently in his third stint with Bayern, and has managed Real Madrid in the past as well. 

The other clubs he's managed are very respectable. He's managed Borussia Mönchengladbach twice, Athletic Bilbao twice, Benfica, Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen in a coaching career that has lasted more than 30 years.

When you've been in the coaching business that long and are consistently sought out by the best clubs in world football, it means you've been doing things right and winning silverware. 

Indeed, Heynckes' two consecutive Bundesliga titles with Bayern and Champions League title with Real Madrid are a testament to Heynckes' ability as a manager.

But, a little investigating uncovers a record of failure for Heynckes. Ever since his eight-year stay with Borussia Monchengladbach, Heynckes has been unable to stay with a club for longer than four years, and his average since his first spell with Bayern Munich has been 1.25 years per job.

Even in this day and age, when managers don't stick with their clubs for very long, that's a very short period of time. The truth is that Heynckes record since his first spell with Bayern Munich, when he won his two league titles, hasn't been that great.

His spells with Bilbao, Eintracht Frankfurt and Tenerife after leaving Bayern were a mix of moderate success and failure. Then came the spell with Real Madrid.

Though Heynckes won the Champions League with Real Madrid, Real finished fourth in the league, 11 points behind first place FC Barcelona. Heynckes was somewhat harshly but fairly sacked in the summer.

From there, Heyneckes jumped from club to club without success. Spells at Benfica, Athletic Bilbao, Schalke, Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayern Munich were all cut short on account of poor or unimpressive results.

Heynckes was able to restore his reputation with two good years at Leverkusen, and has done fairly well with Bayern Munich this season, despite the team's midseason struggles.

But, does Heynckes' up-and-down coaching record compare with Jose Mourinho's consistent record of success with a variety of clubs in different countries? The answer is obviously no, and Real Madrid have a clear advantage coaching-wise in this Champions League semifinal.

The Defenders

For both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, defense is their biggest weakness. The quality both teams possess in offense far surpasses the quality they have in defense.

But, a side-by-side comparison of the individual defenders that make up both teams' defense favors Madrid:

David Alaba vs. Marcelo = Tie.

Philipp Lahm vs. Arbeloa = Phillip Lahm

Sergio Ramos vs. Jerome Boateng = Sergio Ramos

Pepe vs. Holger Badstuber = Pepe

Though Lahm wins his comparison with Arbeloa by a lot, both Ramos and Pepe are considerably better than their Bayern Munich counterparts. And I'm being generous putting Alaba on the same level as Marcelo.

A detailed breakdown of each defense's strengths and weaknesses can be found here. Though Real Madrid's defense is far from perfect, I'm giving it the edge over Bayern's in the two teams' Champions League matchup.

Cristiano Ronaldo

It always helps to have the second best player in the world playing on your team right?

Bayern Munich may have Robbery in their team, but even Ribery and Robben's combined forces will struggle to match Ronaldo's effectiveness if he's playing at the height of his game.

Ronaldo has outscored Robbery 37 goals to 22 in league play and 49 to 30 in all competitions. Robbery have the edge in assists though, 32 to 14.

Against the inferior defenders of Bayern Munich, Ronaldo will surely fancy his chances of scoring in both legs for Real Madrid. He's scored eight goals in eight Champions League appearances, and I'd back him to add to that tally as the best player on the pitch.

Gomez's Big Game Ineffectiveness

As you can probably tell by Ribery and Robben's high assist numbers, Bayern's offense is very dependent on Mario Gomez converting the chances that Ribery, Arjen Robben and the rest of his teammates create for him.

Unfortunately for Bayern though, Gomez has a record of under-performing against the best in the world. 

This season, Gomez has failed to score against Schalke, Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Monchengladbach, Bayern's three biggest title rivals in the Bundesliga.

Advocates for Gomez will point to his 11 goals in the Champions League against opposition like Manchester City and Napoli for evidence of his big game poise, but in truth these were low-pressure games that Bayern were expected to win at home.

Last season, Gomez had the same problem of scoring in the big games for Bayern. He failed to score against Dortmund in two meetings, and couldn't score against Schalke in the German cup semifinals.

Gomez's big-game performances aren't as bad as Zlatan Ibrahimovic's. Unlike Ibrahimovic, Gomez has stepped up in big games for Bayern, scoring a hat-trick against title challengers Bayer Leverkusen late last season and scoring four against FC Basel in a must-win home game.

But, Gomez has had more poor big-game performances than positive ones, and against Real Madrid, this could seriously hurt Bayern.

Fatigue

Both Bayern Munich and Real Madrid have exhausting schedules coming up. From now until the end of April, neither team has more than a two to three day break between games.

Bayern Munich started their stretch of non-stop games this past weekend with a 2-1 victory over FC Augsburg, but will be taking on Borussia Dortmund today in a match likely to decide who wins the Bundesliga title.

Afterwards, they'll play again on Saturday against an in-form Mainz side, take on Real Madrid a few days later, take on Werder Bremen the following weekend, travel to Real Madrid for the second leg and wrap up the crazy month with a home game against Stuttgart.

Like Bayern, Real Madrid started their stretch of non-stop games this weekend, with a 0-0 draw at home versus Valencia. They'll take on Athletico Madrid in a tough, must-win away fixture next, then follow that up with a home game against bottom team Sporting de Gijon.

That's when things take a turn for the worst for Real. They travel to Bayern for the first leg, travel to Barca in what is likely to be a title-deciding Clasico, then take on Bayern in the second leg of the Champions League semifinals. The month is rounded out by another tough fixture at home versus Sevilla.

It's ridiculous to think that either team will be able to play their first-choice starting lineup in all these games. Both Heynckes and Mourinho will need to rotate their players, and this is where Madrid's depth plays to its advantage.

While Real Madrid have great depth up front, Bayern's quality up front drops significantly whenever any of its top five players (Schweinsteiger, Muller, Ribery, Robben, Gomez) are rested.

Unless Heynckes decides to play very weak lineups versus Mainz and Werder Bremen, he'll probably be forced to rest one or more of his "big guns" against Real Madrid, and this could really hurt Bayern Munich's chances of success and progressing to the final.

Wrap-Up

I want to close by saying that I do believe that Bayern Munich do have at least a couple of advantages over Real Madrid, and if I get the chance, I'll try to detail some of the reason why Bayern Munich could succeed in progressing to the Champions League final in a separate article.

For now though, I think the aforementioned reasons point to Real Madrid progressing to an El Clasico Champions League final.

What do you think? Are the reasons mentioned in this article valid advantages for Real Madrid? What factors play in Bayern Munich's favor in this tight matchup? Feel free to discuss and share your opinion below, and I'll join in on the conversation when appropriate.