NFL Draft 2012: Why the Cleveland Browns Have an Easy Choice in Trent Richardson

The Cleveland Browns should have an easy choice in Alabama running back Trent Richardson if in fact the team is down to either Richardson or Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon at No. 4 overall in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Dennis Manoloff of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer broke down all of the Browns' options in a detailed post Saturday, but came up with Richardson and Blackmon as the team's most likely picks with the fourth overall pick.

Blackmon came in as "conceivable," and Richardson was dubbed "entirely possible." All other options, including Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill, LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne and USC tackle Matt Kalil, were listed from "unlikely" to "doubtful" to "won't happen."

In the end, Richardson should be the run away choice between the two most likely options.

Positional Need 

While the Browns have obvious needs at both running back and receiver, the current situation in the backfield is scary. Peyton Hillis bolted from Cleveland for a modest $3 million, leaving the Browns with no No. 1 option heading into next season.

That is unless you consider Montario Hardesty, Brandon Jackson or Chris Ogbonnaya ideal candidates to fill that void, which might be a lonely stance now. Only Ogbonnaya has shown brief flashes of No. 1 ability.

The receiver position is also thin, but 2011 second-round pick Greg Little gives that unit a chance to make a step in the right direction next season. Surely, the positional need here is greater at running back.

Value

The running back position has obviously been devalued in the NFL recently, but that doesn't mean Richardson doesn't carry a bunch of value right now to the Browns. 

Look at it this way: Richardson represents the very elite of his position in the 2012 NFL Draft. No one else really even compares. Blackmon, on the other hand, has done little to separate himself from a deep, deep class of receivers.

If the Browns were to take Blackmon at No. 4 overall, the chances of finding a functional running back comparable to Richardson are low. On the flip side, taking Richardson still allows the Browns to have a chance at finding a player—such as Michael Floyd (unlikely), Kendall Wright or Rueben Randle—at No. 22 overall.

The difference between those players and Blackmon isn't as wide as what the Browns would face at the running back position.

While I won't argue that running back isn't a position that carries as much value as running back currently, comparing Richardson to Blackmon makes it pretty clear which player is more valuable overall. 

Impact

Both Richardson and Blackmon could have a big impact next season, but you'd be hard-pressed to argue the Oklahoma State receiver would bring as much to the table in year one as a workhorse back like Richardson. 

There is a large contingency of draftniks that will tell you Richardson is the most complete NFL back since Adrian Peterson. That alone tells you what kind of player he can be the very first game he steps onto the field this September.

Remember, Peterson put up 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns in his first season in the NFL. He also caught 19 passes for 268 yards and another score. Richardson could approach those numbers rushing next season and likely surpass anything Peterson has ever done as a receiver, too. 

Forget this notion that having a bell-cow back like Richardson can't change the fortunes of an offense right away. Minnesota averaged slightly over five points more a game in 2007 (the year Peterson was drafted) than 2006 and also added two wins. Mind you, that improvement came with Tarvaris Jackson, Kelly Holcomb and Brooks Bollinger starting games at quarterback that season.

Colt McCoy has limitations, but it can be done.

Conclusion

There are three important factors that go into making a draft pick: 

1. Is there value in the pick? How does Player X stack up against the team's draft board?
2. Does Player X fit a positional need? How does the board stack up at that position and at others of need?
3. What kind of immediate impact are we getting for the pick? Will we see results next season or down the line?

In the end, Richardson beats out Blackmon in all three categories. 

We can't know for certain if the Browns' draft thoughts mirror that of Manoloff, but Richardson looks like a slam dunk pick in Manoloff's scenario. When the Browns are on the clock in a couple of weeks, I expect them to feel the same way.