2012 NFL Mock Draft: Breaking Down Which Star College Players Will Bust in NFL

The key to the NFL draft is to avoid picking anyone who could end up being a bust. This year's first round could shake out with several players guaranteed to bust being selected fairly high.

Here's a look at my latest mock draft in which I highlight the five college studs I think are most likely to go bust at the next level. 

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck will be the pick, he has been slotted to go No. 1 in this draft for over a year now.

2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Washington needs a franchise quarterback to build around.

After a season with John Beck and Rex Grossman under center, it's not surprising that they were willing to surrender so much to move up to this spot to get him.

3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Kalil is the perfect pick here as the Vikings need a franchise left tackle to protect Christian Ponder's blind side.

4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Cleveland needs to surround Colt McCoy with weapons and Richardson has the talent to be one of the NFL's best running backs in a short period of time.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

With Ronde Barber slowing down and Aqib Talib's future in doubt, Claiborne makes more sense than anyone here.

6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Blackmon is the draft's best receiver and quarterback Sam Bradford needs a legitimate No. 1 target.

The Rams will take the Oklahoma State product and thank their luck that he was available.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

Jacksonville's top need is a defensive end and Coples is the most talented player on the board at this point.

The problem is, he never really lived up to his potential at North Carolina. 

At 6'6" and 285 pounds, Coples is big, but also possesses the speed and athleticism to make comparisons to Julius Peppers actually hold water. He also has long arms and the kind of elite size and strength to hold the edge.

The problem is the kid's desire.

Coples only had 7.5 sacks during his final year of college—a number well below what a player of his talent should have tallied. On film, he often gives up on plays and rarely displays max effort through the whistle.

Coples just doesn't have the kind of motor that measures up to his immense talent.

He could wind up being one of those rare guys who is far better in the NFL than in college—I just don't see that happening.

Coples is the first guy on this list who will go bust.

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

I have said before I feel bad labeling Tannehill as a potential bust because he seems like a great kid. That said, whenever someone has the kind of meteoric rise up draft boards that he has had, it raises red flags. 

After acing his pro day, the Texas A&M signal-caller has legitimized himself as a top-10 pick in the eyes of most scouts.

I don't doubt Tannehill's upside. I doubt his experience and how long it will take him to develop. 

Tannehill only played quarterback for one-and-a-half years in college. That just isn't enough experience for me to feel comfortable with him being a top-10 pick. His upside is tremendous as are his intangibles, but I just can't trust a guy who is so raw at the position being taken this high.

If Tannehill came off the board in the mid 20s, I'd be fine with that.

But, a top-10 pick should be able to contribute immediately and there's no way he sees the field for at least a year.

When he does, there is no guarantee he'll be a legitimate franchise quarterback worthy of the No. 8 pick.

9. Carolina Panthers: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

Poe's rise has also raised red flags for me.

Poe's workout at the Combine was a sight to behold. I was mesmerized by the guy. He's a once-in-a-decade athlete at almost 6'4" and 346 pounds. He is freakishly strong and fast for a guy of that size.

That said, on tape Poe is another guy who doesn't show up the way a guy with his natural gifts should. At Memphis—against inferior competition—he failed to dominate the way he was capable of. His film is average at best and that's a big-time red flag for an interior lineman.

Poe's upside is a guy who reaches the Pro Bowl consistently for the next decade. But, his floor is a supremely gifted tackle who gets pushed around and never establishes himself.

That's a considerable risk.

Poe has a lot to prove before I'm fully sold on him and I think he will struggle to find his footing early in his career.

10. Buffalo Bills: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Bills fill a big need along the offensive line by adding Reiff, the second-best tackle in this draft.

11. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

Kansas City wants Poe, but settles for Kuechly, a tackling machine who will improve the middle of the team's defense. 

12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina

If Ingram was slotted to be an outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme I wouldn't label him as a potential bust.

But as a defensive end in Pete Carroll's 4-3 front, I can't see him succeeding.

At 6'1" and 264 pounds, Ingram is undersized for a defensive end, but the Seahawks will take him here because they are desperate for someone to come off the edge and pressure the quarterback.

At South Carolina, Ingram was a playmaker who was consistently around the ball and made a name for himself as someone to be avoided in the SEC. 

Still, I just think he'll get overpowered by offensive tackles in the NFL and won't be able to hold the edge. He has speed, but not the initial burst, to get right around opponents, and, while I love his motor, I just don't think he's strong enough to hold up against the run.

If the Seahawks moved him to outside linebacker in the 4-3, I don't think he would be able to make a smooth transition there, either.

Ingram is a classic "tweener" who just doesn't fit a traditional role in a 4-3.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Levi Brown was re-signed to a five-year deal, but that isn't a comfort to anyone.

Martin has the versatility to play on either side of the line and has tremendous upside. If he becomes more polished in pass protection, he could be a stalwart for years to come.

14. Dallas Cowboys: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

The Cowboys will have options here but they'll take Cox, a versatile defensive lineman who could line up in all three spots along the team's 3-4 front.  

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Barron will help the continued improvement of Philadelphia's defense, as he's strong enough to provide support against the run and has enough range to be great in deep coverage. 

16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

New York needs an edge rusher and Upshaw is the kind of rugged, tough player that Rex Ryan loves. 

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Cincinnati will have options here but will opt for Kirkpatrick, an elite talent at corner whose stock has dropped thanks to an arrest for marijuana possession.

The Bengals have yet to replace Jonathan Joseph, who left for the Houston Texans last offseason.

18. San Diego Chargers: David DeCastro, G, Stanford

General manager A.J. Smith's prayers are answered and DeCastro falls here. He will step in immediately and replace Pro Bowler Kris Dielman, who was forced to retire after a severe concussion.

19. Chicago Bears: Cordy Glenn, OT/G, Georgia

Chicago has one of the NFL's worst offensive lines and needs to address that here.

Glenn will give them a versatile talent who could start at either guard spot or right tackle immediately. 

20. Tennessee Titans: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

The Titans lost Cortland Finnegan in free agency and can replace him here with Gilmore, a big, physical corner who won't shy from contact or taking on elite receivers. 

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

After signing BenJarvus Green-Ellis, the Bengals need to add a different dimension to the running game.

Miller is a home run threat who has more upside than any back in this draft other than Trent Richardson.

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Floyd has massive hands and is outstanding at hauling in almost everything thrown in his direction.

The problem is, I just don't see him having the separation skills to get open at the NFL level. 

Floyd played lighter and faster during his final season at Notre Dame, but the only time he was able to get separation came against far inferior competition. Despite being 6'3" and 220 pounds, he also shies away from contact.

Floyd is the opposite of Justin Blackmon in that he plays far smaller than his size. Sometimes he lets balls get into his body, rather than reaching out to secure them.

I don't think his off-field problems at Notre Dame will be an issue moving forward, but I do question some things about his character.

Most notably, when things were going badly for the Irish, Floyd got lazy instead of stepping up and being a leader.

That is troubling, especially if he'll be headed to a Browns team that's developing and will take a few years to be a consistent winner.

While taking him in the early 20s is probably worth the risk, I still think he has a lot of work to do.

23. Detroit Lions: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

Dominic Raiola is Detroit's current center and he's terrible.

Konz is the best snapper available in this draft and his ability to diagnose defenses will make quarterback Matthew Stafford's job a whole lot easier.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Casey Hampton is aging and won't be around forever.

Still could come in and play next to him along Pittsburgh's front while learning before he takes over as the team's next nose tackle.

25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

The Broncos have to get better up front defensively and at 6'5" and 323 pounds, Brockers is a massive tackle who can eat up space and blockers.

Brockers should be an immediate upgrade.

26. Houston Texans: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Andre Johnson is one of the NFL's best receivers, but the man needs some help.

The Texans grab a legitimate No. 2 who can be a serious deep threat by drafting Wright here.

27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints): Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois

New England needs to improve its front seven, and with Mercilus they get an edge rusher who should have no problem moving to outside linebacker or putting his hand on the ground in the team's hybrid 3-4/4-3 front.

28. Green Bay Packers: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

Green Bay will take an edge rusher here, the only worry is which one falls to them.

Here they get Perry, the best pure pass-rusher in the draft who will take some pressure off of fellow USC product Clay Matthews.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama 

The Ravens have other needs, but have to draft Ray Lewis' successor at some point and there's no better time than now.

Hightower can contribute all over the field while learning from Lewis before eventually taking over when the legendary middle linebacker retires. 

30. San Francisco 49ers: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

The 49ers need a deep threat, and at 6'4" and 215 pounds, Hill has the size and speed to get down the field fast. He's raw and will need time to develop, but he could be special in a few years.

31. New England Patriots: Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut

The Patriots will buck their trend and hold on to both first-round picks to help rebuild the team's front seven.

Reyes is a versatile defensive lineman who could line up anywhere along the team's defensive front. 

32. New York Giants: Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina

With no offensive tackles worthy of this pick available, the Giants opt to improve at outside linebacker.

Brown is incredibly fast and, combined with his playmaking ability, make him a worthy pick.