Santa Anita Derby 2012 Contenders: Predictions for Entire Field

The Santa Anita Derby is always a fiercely contended race as horses begin to prepare for the Kentucky Derby. This year, the 75th running of this grand race figures to be no different. 

There are plenty of elite horses in this field, and the race is going to come down to which one of those horses can manage the pace and be in a position to take the win down the home stretch. 

Here is a rundown of each horse and where they will finish: 

No. 1: Creative Cause 

Jockey: J. Rosario

Morning Line: 6/5

Prediction: Place

Creative Cause is generating some big buzz. He has won four races in seven starts, and three of those were in graded events. He has also looked stronger with each event. 

Cause will have a strong effort here, but is not yet ready to take this one down the stretch. 

No. 2: Liaison

Jockey: R. Bejarano

Morning Line: 8/1

Prediction: Sixth

Liason entered this year after a spectacular run as a juvenile. However, it has been a rough transition so far. 

Liason finished well back in fourth at San Felipe—Creative Cause won that race. Prior to that, in his first start of the year, Liaison threw his jockey. 

This horse is talented, but not yet ready for this level of competition. 

No. 3: Holy Candy

Jockey: A. Quinonez

Morning Line: Scratched

No. 4: I'll Have Another

Jockey: M. Gutierrez 

Morning Line: 5/2

Prediction: Win

I'll Have Another is a horse on the rise. He has a nice kick and knows how to finish a race. This allowed him to take the Robert B. Lewis, his first race of the year. 

This horse has put together an impressively consistent string of performances. He will keep the field close and take it at the end. 

No. 5: Longview Drive

Jockey: R. Baze

Morning Line: 12/1

Prediction: Fifth

This colt has not yet claimed a win in a graded event, but has two third-place finishes in G3 events. 

This colt will have to avoid getting out to a fast start, or he will fall off fast down the stretch. Baze will be aware of this and make sure that this horse is at least near the leaders at the finish. 

No. 6: Paynter

Jockey: M. Garcia

Morning Line: 12/1

Prediction: Fourth

There may not be a horse harder to predict in this field than Paynter. This horse has just one race under his belt. 

That does not bode well for a race with horses of this caliber. However, that one race was the Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita, and he won by just over four lengths. 

Paynter will put forth a good effort but does not have the experience to finish in the money. 

No. 7: Senor Rain

Jockey: E. Flores

Morning Line: 15/1

Prediction: Eighth

This horse consistently finishes in the money...when he is racing against lesser competition. He has not done anything to impress against elite competition. 

Senor Rain will never be a factor here.

No. 8: Midnight Transfer

Jockey: M. Smith

Morning Line: 10/1

Prediction: Show

This horse knows how to hang back and make a late run. This will be a great benefit in this race, as there are likely to be a few horses that get out and push the pace early. 

Transfer showed the effectiveness of his style by finishing third to Creative Cause in the G2-San Felipe, and he will get an identical finish here. 

No. 9: Blueskiesnrainbows

Jockey: J. Talamo

Morning Line: 20/1

Prediction: Ninth

To be frank, this horse doesn't deserve to be in this field. He has been struggling against lesser competition. 

Against optional claimers, he finished third his last time on the track, and he was demolished by 12 lengths against the same level of competition prior to that. 

No. 10: Brother Francis

Jockey: G. Gomez

Morning Line: 20/1

Prediction: Seventh

This maiden has shown a ton of promise, but is in over his head here. 

In the G1-CashCall Futurity, he was third behind the stiff competition of Liaison and Rousing Sermon, and prior to that he finished second in the G3-Hollywood Preview. 

This horse is capable of big things, but he just isn't ready yet.