2012 NFL Mock Draft: Absolute Locks for Every First-Round Team

Spring has sprung in the National Football League, and as March has turned into April and collegiate pro days wrap up, the draft day picture for the first round of the 2012 NFL draft comes more and more into focus each day.

Enough questions have been answered to make me fairly confident as to how the first round will shake out this year, so here's a look at the absolutely guaranteed locks* for the last Thursday of this month.

1. Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: The Washington Post's Mike Wilbon reported Monday that the Colts are "seriously considering" Robert Griffin with the first overall pick, but it will still be a huge upset if anyone besides Luck is selected first overall.

2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams)

Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: Donovan McNabb may not feel Griffin is a good fit in the nation's capital, but after paying a king's ransom to acquire the rights to the second overall pick in the draft, it's a fair assumption that the Redskins disagree.

3. Minnesota Vikings

Matt Kalil, OT, USC: Quarterback Christian Ponder is going to have a much easier time developing in the NFL if he's upright, so the Vikings badly need an upgrade over Charlie Johnson at left tackle after allowing the fifth-most sacks in the NFL last year.

4. Cleveland Browns

Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: The Browns are desperate for offensive firepower and lost 2011 starter Peyton Hillis to the Kansas City Chiefs, so the team has little recourse but to address the running back position early in the 2012 NFL draft.

Alabama running back Trent Richardson gained over 2,000 total yards as a junior, and after a strong showing at his pro day the Canton Repository believes Richardson has an excellent shot at being the first ball-carrier taken in the top five since 2008. 

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If there was any doubt left about whom the Browns should select with the fourth overall selection in this month’s draft, Trent Richardson eliminated it. The bruising and gliding 5-foot-9, 227-pound Alabama running back knocked the Browns over — literally — during his pro day workout last week.

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5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: Cornerback Ronde Barber is 36 years old and Aqib Talib is facing felony assault charges, so it makes sense for Tampa Bay to upgrade its secondary by selecting the draft's top cornerback prospect in the LSU standout.

6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins)

Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: The Rams will be overjoyed if the two-time Biletnikoff Award winner slips this far, as not only will they still get the player they coveted all along but they will have also reaped a huge reward in the trade with the Washington Redskins.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars

Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina: The Jaguars' pass rush ranked 25th in the NFL last year in sacks, and the All-American defensive end would be an excellent complement to Jeremy Mincey up front for Jacksonville after racking up double-digit sacks for the Gamecocks in 2011.

8. Miami Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: After missing out on quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn in free agency and watching the Redskins win the bidding for the Griffin pick, the Dolphins front office is just desperate enough to acquire a franchise quarterback to reach for Tannehill with a top-10 pick.

9. Carolina Panthers

Michael Brockers, DT, LSU: The Carolina defense was soft against the run in 2011, so upgrading the middle of the defensive line is a priority that the 322-pound Brockers would address quite nicely.

10. Buffalo Bills

Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa: It's looking less likely by the day that Demetrius Bell will be returning to the Bills after visiting a handful of teams, so the team will probably be looking at a hole at offensive tackle that the 313-pound Reiff could step into from day one.

11. Kansas City Chiefs

Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis: 2011 starter Kelly Gregg is a 35-year-old free agent who is considering retirement, and the 346-pound Poe, who was one of the stars of February's NFL combine, would plug that hole literally and figuratively.

12. Seattle Seahawks

Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina: The Seahawks were a mediocre 19th in the National Football League in sacks last year, and the team could certainly use an upgrade at defensive end opposite rising star Chris Clemons.

Quinton Coples has the 6'6", 281-pound frame and athleticism that scouts and coaches covet in a defensive end. While questions remain about his motor after a subpar senior season in Chapel Hill, NFL.com's Charlie Casserly believes that being miscast last season impacted Coples' stats more than a lack of effort.

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I watched Coples play four games during the 2011 campaign, as well as the Senior Bowl. A good part of the time, he lined up in a four-point stance in a head-up position on the offensive player. The rest of the time, he lined up outside the offensive player, thus giving him room to operate and use his athletic ability. It was like watching two different players. When he lined up wide, you could see him use his speed and athletic ability to put pressure on the QB.

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13. Arizona Cardinals

David DeCastro, OG, Stanford: The Cardinals badly need to improve the pass protection for quarterback Kevin Kolb, and according to reports, the team prefers DeCastro, who is widely considered the best guard prospect in several seasons, to former Stanford teammate Jonathan Martin.

14. Dallas Cowboys

Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama: Dallas head coach Jason Garrett was in attendance at Alabama's second pro day, and Calvin Watkins of ESPN Dallas believes this may portend the Cowboys selecting a Crimson Tide defender in the draft's first round, in which case Kirkpatrick would likely be the best bet given Dallas' hole at the cornerback position.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State: The torn Achilles tendon suffered by starting left tackle Jason Peters may have altered the Eagles' draft day plans significantly, but the fact remains that the team still needs to upgrade the middle of the defense opposite tackle Cullen Jenkins.

16.  New York Jets

Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama: If the Jets are going to get back into the thick of things in the AFC East, they need to bolster a pass rush that had trouble pressuring the quarterback consistently last year. Upshaw didn't have a great combine or pro day, but the All-American's experience playing in the 3-4 from his time in Tuscaloosa would be very tempting for New York.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders)

Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: The Bengals have a number of other needs on both sides of the ball, but given Jerome Simpson's cloudy future due to a drug arrest, Floyd would represent a nice value here as another young weapon in the Bengals' offensive arsenal. 

18. San Diego Chargers

Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois: The Chargers had trouble generating a consistent pass rush last year, and Mercilus' 16 sacks in 13 games in 2011 were half as many as San Diego had as a team.

19. Chicago Bears

Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford: The Bears were able to upgrade their receiving corps by trading for wideout Brandon Marshall, and now Chicago must turn its attention toward improving the pass protection for quarterback Jay Cutler.

20. Tennessee Titans

Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College: Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly won the Butkus Award after leading college football in tackles in 2011, and the 6'3", 242-pound junior erased doubts about his speed with a strong showing at the combine.

The Tennessee Titans would seem to be set at middle linebacker with youngster Colin McCarthy, but the team may be looking to slide either Kuechly or McCarthy outside, as the former recently told Walter Football's Charlie Campbell that Tennessee is bringing him in for a visit.

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Before the draft, I'm going to Carolina and Tennessee. That's it for right now. Everybody is kind of poking their head in and out. I'm working on scheduling visits. Those are the teams already on the list, but we'll pick up more from now.

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21. Cincinnati Bengals

Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia: The Bengals have a glaring need on the inside of their offensive front, and the 6'5", 345-pound All-SEC performer is a mauling run-blocker that would provide an immediate and substantial upgrade for Cincinnati's offensive line.

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons)

Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech: After bolstering the running game with the selection of Trent Richardson, the Browns should then look to upgrade the receiving corps with the 6'4", 215-pound Hill, who is shooting up draft boards after a big showing at the combine.

23. Detroit Lions

Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: The Lions had a hole at cornerback even before Eric Wright left for Tampa in free agency, and if Detroit is going to take the next step in 2012 and win a playoff game, then they have to improve their defensive backfield.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers

Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama: The release of veteran James Farrior leaves a hole in the middle of the Pittsburgh defense, and Hightower is a hard-nosed big hitter with plenty of experience playing in the 3-4 front that the Steelers employ. 

25. Denver Broncos

Devon Still, DT, Penn State: The middle of the Denver defensive line was the soft spot of the Broncos defense last season, and the 303-pound Still, who was the Big Ten defensive player of the year in 2011, would certainly seem to be a step in the right direction.

26. Houston Texans

Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: Bears wide receiver Kendall Wright caught 108 passes for 1,663 yards as a senior, and the speedster would provide the Texans with the complement to Andre Johnson that they have been seeking.

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27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints)

Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama: The Patriots secondary was shredded regularly by opposing quarterbacks last year, and although Jenkins' troubled past makes him a bit of a gamble, it's worth taking the chance given New England's need at the cornerback position.

28. Green Bay Packers

Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC: The Packers' defense ranked dead last in the National Football League a season ago, due in large part to its inability to get after the quarterback, as Green Bay ranked 27th in the NFL in sacks in 2011.

Defensive end Nick Perry led the Pac-12 in sacks as a junior at Southern Cal, and with the strength to play end in a 4-3 defense and the quickness to kick outside to linebacker in a 3-4 front, the Sporting News' Russ Lande views Perry as one of the top pass-rushing prospects in this year's class.

"Perry is one of the premier pass rushers in this year’s draft because of his excellent use of his hands to jolt and defeat pass blockers. Unlike many elite college pass rushers, Perry does more than rely solely upon his athleticism to pressure quarterbacks. He is clearly coachable, and his pass-rush technique shows his polished moves. This is rare for a college pass rusher. What’s more, once he defeats a blocker, he shows an explosive burst to the quarterback to finish the play."

29. Baltimore Ravens

Amini Silatolu, OT/OG, Midwestern State: Baltimore lost starting left guard Ben Grubbs in free agency and the Ravens have a bit of a history of selecting interior linemen early in the draft, so the big man from the small school could make for an excellent replacement.

30. San Francisco 49ers

Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford: An excellent showing at Stanford's pro day has moved Fleener to the head of the class when this year's tight end crop is concerned. It's very possible that his old college coach could look to pair Fleener with Vernon Davis to create the sort of matchup headaches for opposing defenses that the Gronkowski/Hernandez duo do for the New England Patriots.

31. New England Patriots

Mychal Kendricks, LB, Cal: Kendricks was the Pac-12 defensive player of the year after tallying 105 tackles for the Golden Bears in 2011, and the 5'11" 239-pound senior has the versatility to play either inside or outside for the Patriots.

32. New York Giants

Doug Martin, RB, Boise State: With Brandon Jacobs now in San Francisco and Andre Brown staring at a four-game suspension, the G-Men are suddenly wafer thin at running back. Doug Martin isn't exceptional in any facet of the game, but he's very good in all of them, so the 5'9" 223-pounder would at the very least provide depth behind Ahmad Bradshaw.

* Please note that I never guaranteed they'd be RIGHT

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