NCAA Championship Game 2012: Why Kansas Will Pull off Epic Upset of Kentucky

Praising the Kentucky Wildcats is too easy.

This year's Wildcats team features several legitimate first-round NBA draft picks, led by AP Player of the Year Anthony Davis. That reality alone would make them a scary team, so the fact that they're led by one of the country's best coaches in John Calipari is icing on the cake.

Now that I've gone and praised Wildcats, I can say this:

They're going to lose to the Kansas Jayhawks in the NCAA Championship Game.

Yeah, you're going to have to hear me out on this one.

The odds are very much in Kentucky's favor. The Wildcats have more firepower than the Jayhawks, who have gotten by primarily on grit and determination to this point. Grit and determination apparently aren't worth much to the oddsmakers, as they have Kentucky favored to win on Monday night by a full seven points, according to Bovada.

This is where I beg to differ. Against Kentucky, Kansas' grit and determination are going to count for a ton.

Especially in the paint. Part of what makes the Wildcats so good is their ability to dominate in the paint on both ends of the floor against all comers, but that won't be so easy against Kansas. Davis and friends are going to have to worry about Thomas Robinson when on defense. Davis himself is in for a tough matchup against shot-blocking extraordinaire Jeff Withey when he's on offense. Any Kentucky player who would drive to the basket (they have several of these types) will have to watch out for both Withey and Robinson.

Doing work on defense is always a big part of Kansas' success and that's not going to change in this game. The Jayhawks are going to match up against the Wildcats man to man and dare them to make things happen.

Of course, Louisville took on Kentucky with this same mindset and things didn't go so well for the Cardinals. Despite their defensive pressure and overall defensive know-how, the Cardinals gave up way too many easy baskets. Of Kentucky's 28 field goals, only two came from beyond the arc, a sign of how much success the Wildcats enjoyed close to the basket.

Kansas is not going to lose focus the way Louisville did. It helps that the Jayhawks actually have the players to seal off the basket, and it also helps that their approach to playing defense is nowhere near as hectic as Louisville's.

The Jayhawks have no hope of outscoring Kentucky if Monday night's game turns into a barnburner, but they certainly have more hope of scoring against Kentucky than Louisville ever did. Even if he has to get them against Davis, Robinson is going to get his points. Even if he doesn't have a great scoring night, Tyshawn Taylor is going to make things happen by spreading the ball around and getting everyone involved. In the event that he does have a great scoring night, Kansas' offense will be opened up even more once Kentucky makes and extra effort to limit Taylor.

Are all the matchups in Kansas' favor? No. In honesty, few of them are. That puts Kansas in pretty much the same boat as all the teams that have tried and failed against the Wildcats to this point, from Louisville to Baylor to whoever.

Where Kansas stands out from the pack is its ability to finish. In talking about the Jayhawks, we're talking about a team that could have been knocked out of the tournament way back in the Round of 32. Not to mention, one that has found itself on the brink of elimination in every game since.

The Jayhawks haven't been eliminated yet because they know how to get tough when the tough gets going. Kentucky does too, but it hasn't had to overcome the odds quite like Kansas has to this point.

The Jayhawks will be able to do just enough to make sure the Wildcats won't run away with this game. It's going to be close late and then it will be a simple matter of which team is going to finish things off.

That's what this Jayhawks team does best, and it's the one thing they do better than Kentucky.

I'm picking them to win by a nose.

Prediction: Kansas by two