2012 Final Four: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals Preview

The 2012 NCAA Tournament has been everything we could ask for—two No. 15 seeds pulling off unthinkable upsets, buzzer beaters and overtimes.  All that remains is Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State and Kansas—four historically great basketball programs dueling it out to be crowned National Champion.

Both Final Four games should be everything we could possibly expect, but the Louisville vs Kentucky matchup provides story lines both on and off the court.

Rick Pitino, current head coach of the Louisville Cardinals, coached the Kentucky Wildcats to a National Championship in 1996 and returned in 1997, only to fall to the Arizona Wildcats.  Pitino soon left to coach in the NBA, only to quickly return back to the college ranks at bitter in-state rival Louisville.

Kentucky fans understood the reasons for Pitino leaving for the NBA, but returning to Louisville?  There can't be a Kentucky fan that is not bitter about that.

These two storied programs set a precedent for their Final Four matchup back on New Year's Eve.  The game was a battle with 52 fouls being called, but Kentucky pulled away late for a 69-62 victory.

From the start of the 2012 NCAA Tournament, the Kentucky Wildcats have seemingly been on a mission, and they have rolled over any team that has stood in their way.  Louisville is looking to be a bit more than the kind of speed bump the other teams have been.

Vegas predicts a Wildcat win by nine, and they should feel pretty safe with that line.  The December 31st matchup in Rupp Arena was a game which Kentucky won by seven despite 20 turnovers and shooting below 30% from the field.  If it wasn't for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist chipping in 24 points and 19 rebounds, the winning streak at Rupp may have very well came to an end.

Lightning is going to have to strike twice for Kentucky to turn the ball over 20 times and shoot under 30%.  The Wildcats are averaging 88 points a game in the NCAA Tournament while shooting over 53%.  In fact, by the numbers, the Wildcats are the 10 best shooting team in the nation.

As good as the Wildcats offense has looked, they haven't faced a defense as tough as Louisville's since December.  It's not the full-court defense that is impressing either, it is the stifling half-court defense.

The Cardinals held the Florida Gators to 9-25 shooting, including 0-9 behind the arc, in the second half after switching to a half-court man-defense.  While playing zone, the Cardinals gave up 35 points on 12 of 17 shooting.

The question going forward is whether the poor offensive performance by Kentucky on December 31st should be credited to the Louisville defense, or an anomaly in the Wildcats' offense.

If the Cardinals pull off the upset, it will be one of the greatest coaching efforts of Rick Pitino's coaching career.  Russ Smith's career-high 30 points against the Wildcats back on December 31st helped the Cardinals hold their own, but they can't expect the same production this time around.  Peyton Siva and Chris Smith will have to do better than 15 combined points on 23 shots, while still maintaining control of the 'Cats on the defensive end.

In the end, much to the satisfaction of Kentucky fans, Pitino just does not have the roster to match up with the Kentucky Wildcats.  All the talk has been focused on Pitino and his coaching ability, but John Calipari shouldn't be forgotten.  The man is at the top of his career at a school that has a plethora of NBA-level talent.  His biggest success this year has been his controlling the focus and attention of his freshman-laden team.

The lights are only going to get brighter, but the 'Cats have shown no signs of being unable to handle the pressure.  They will be too big, too fast and too physical for the Cards to keep up.  Kentucky meets their line and sets themselves up nicely for an eighth National Championship Title.

Verdict: Kentucky 74 Louisville 62