Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Targeting Talented Pitchers Who Haven't Peaked

Let me give you an example of a perfect fantasy baseball draft pick used on a pitcher: Clayton Kershaw.

Last season, Kershaw was a guy who was in high demand because of the season he had in 2010, but he wasn't among the inner circle of fantasy baseball aces because of problem with walks. He was a guy to target after all the top aces were off the board, and anyone who drafted him had to cross their fingers and hope that he stopped walking the ballpark in 2011.

Sure enough, Kershaw did just that, and by the end of the season he was right up there with Justin Verlander in terms of fantasy value.

Kershaw's potential made him worth the risk, and Kershaw's potential made him an ace.

So which young pitchers fit that bill this year? Which pitchers haven't peaked yet?

Here's a few suggestions. 

Honorable Mention: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants

Madison Bumgarner should be No. 1 on this list, but I've spent too much of my time raving about him already. Putting him at No. 1 would be too easy.

I'll just point out the basics: Bumgarner had one of the lowest FIPs in baseball last season, and he put up very respectable strikeout and walk numbers. Better luck will lead to a lower ERA and more wins, ultimately making Bumgarner the best pitcher on the Giants' starting staff.

5. Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies

Jhoulys Chacin looked pretty darn good as rookie in 2010, striking out more than a batter per inning and posting a 3.28 ERA.

Things went south for Chacin in his sophomore season, as his strikeouts declined and his walk rate stayed steady at 4.04 per nine innings, which is way too many. He could have been a lot worse, but there's no denying he took a few steps back.

In his second full season, the biggest key for Chacin will be to cut down on his walks. He needs to get his BB/9 at or under the 3.00 mark. He also needs to get his strikeouts back up around 9.00. With his stuff, that's where it should be.

Before you worry about Coors Field, just know that Chacin had a very high ground-ball rate last season and he had a .261 BABIP. Those numbers bode well for Colorado's launching pad ballpark.

You'll be able to get Chacin pretty late in your draft. You'll be rolling the dice, but we're talking about there being a potential Ubaldo Jimenez-like breakout for Chacin this season.

4. Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves

Brandon Beachy should be on your fantasy radar for one reason: his ability to strike hitters out.

Beachy only made 25 starts last season and he had trouble lasting longer than five or six innings in a given start, but he had a 10.74 K/9. If he'd compiled enough innings to qualify, he would have led the league in that category.

Beachy's yet another guy who needs to keep working on his control, but not to the degree that Chacin has to. Beachy's BB/9 was 2.92 last season, down from the 4.20 BB/9 he posted in limited action in 2010.

This spring has not exactly been fun for Beachy, but I wouldn't worry about that. He has thrown strikes, and his stuff still looks terrific. If he keeps his walks down this season, he has a good shot at cracking 180 or 190 innings, in which he'll give you well over 200 strikeouts.

That kind of domination will ensure Beachy's ERA and WHIP stay under control, and he'll get plenty of wins if Atlanta's offense bounces back this season.

3. Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

Gio Gonzalez is a little further along than the first couple guys on this list, as he's been in the league for a couple seasons now and has topped 200 innings each of the last two years.

Strikeouts are not an issue for Gonzalez. He had an 8.78 K/9 last season and just missed punching out 200 hitters. Gonzalez has swing-and-miss stuff, and he knows how to use it.

He just doesn't always know where it's going. Gonzalez hasn't yet posted a BB/9 under 4.00, and he actually led baseball in walks last season. Those walks are keeping his WHIP way too high, which kinda cancels out the low ERAs Gonzalez has posted the last two seasons.

You have to feel better about Gonzalez's chances now if for no other reason than the fact he's in the National League. He'll be able to get away with more in the NL than he ever could in the AL, and that should lead to solid numbers all the way around.

If Gonzalez cuts his walks down, he'll be an ace. 

2. Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers

Max Scherzer is getting there. He's not there yet, but he's getting there.

There's never been a problem with Scherzer's stuff. His problem has been learning how to pitch. He was a strikeout pitcher with inconsistent control early on in his career, and in 2011 he lowered his walk rate only to get hit more often. He had a .314 BABIP and a .269 opponents' batting average.

Scherzer just hasn't pieced it all together yet. But seeing as how he won 15 games last season when he was still a work in progress, I view that as an encouraging sign.

This is a big year for Scherzer. He's looked great in spring training, and he should be considered a candidate for 18 or 19 wins with Detroit's high-powered offense at his back. If he continues to evolve as a pitcher, an ERA at or below the 3.00 mark and roughly 200 strikeouts are in the cards.

In short, this is Scherzer's time to become an ace.

1. Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Last season, Daniel Hudson won 16 games with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, a very good season by any measure.

So why is he on here?

Because I honestly believe Hudson hasn't peaked yet. For all his success last season, he got by with a 6.85 K/9, resulting in just 169 total strikeouts. Hudson can do better than that.

This season, I'm looking for Hudson to post a K/9 much closer to, or over, the 8.00 mark while keeping his BB/9 right around 2.00. His BABIP will invariably decline from .295, leading to a truly dominant season.

Last year, it was Ian Kennedy who broke out and won 20 games. This year, it's Hudson's turn
.