100 Million Dollar Baby

While there is major speculation that Eli will be tendered a contract in the $120M range, I for one do not agree, based on the body of work. I believe Eli will not be tendered a $120M contract before it is completely apparent that the stretch between the 2007 NE loss and the 2008 win in Washington is the real Manning and not the one that finished the season 1-4.

While the losses can not be placed exclusively on Eli's shoulders, the fact of the matter is that Eli's limitations played a significant part if not for any reason other then the fact that winning for the Giants simply is not as simple as putting the game in Eli's hands. 

Apparent to everyone with discerning eyes was Eli's woeful downfield accuracy from training camp to the very last pass of 2008.

In fact, most of Eli's interceptions were caused by bad misses of open down field targets more so then bad reads or miscommunications.

Let's face it; he has thrown a bad long ball all year but little is made of the bad throws unless they are picked off or the WR "goes and gets it" nothing much is said other then another blight on the receiving corps who are left to shoulder the blame of his down field short comings. 

How telling it is that Moss was only a factor when Carr was in the pocket? How is it that Hickson's only bomb TD came form Carr (Diving sliding stumbling leaping catches come from Manning passes and I don't count those as the classic catch and run bomb).

The way the one Hixon caught from Carr was thrown it would have been a catch run and score from anywhere on the field. This is not an Eli hit piece, he record stands on its own merit. 

But the $100M question is can the Giants afford to pin their futures on a QB that can not carry the team on the merit of his ability to make "all the throws" consistently or when absolutely needed? 

We have seen on many occasions, QBs come into Giants stadium in the swirling winds and out sling the home slinger as McNabB just did.  Why is that?  Over the course of a 10-year contract, can Eli always count on a dominant running game or a dominant OL?  Probably not, and five years into his career he still has not mastered a rudimentary part of his craft.

He has however, provided abundant proof that he can not perform in Giants stadium (at least not at the elite level) in the cold part of the year. Yes, he has had good passing days in the winter months, but they seem to be more of a pleasant surprise then expected...Admit it.

When considering passing expectations in the North East or even the North we have seen QBs in Pittsburgh, NE, Phil, Wash, Cleveland, Buffalo and others all exhibit up field passing games in the winter conditions. Yet, in years of watching Eli, we still fear the inevitable emergence of "bad Eli" at the most inopportune time while opposing Defensive Coordinators count on it. 

While $100MM QBs (or the level of expectations that salary emplies) may have a bad day from time to time, a strategy of challenging their passing skills while selling out to stop the run is not an indication that Defensive Coordinators view this QB as possessing traits exclusive to membership in the $100MM Elite QB's club. 

No, this is more that they are counting on much higher odds in their favor based on much lower expectations. So long as Eli's backup continue to make backup receivers look like stars and he makes them look like busts or exhibit a much higher level of athleticism, then Giant management will have all the negotiating leverage they need.

Not to mention the need for demonstrative answers to the which Eli questions; yes even more then a SB ring to put the franchise's future and fortune in his hands.

Consistency, down field touch, chemistry with all of his receivers and better pocket awareness if not mobility; these are (should be) the traits of the $100M club. The Giant management, if as shrewd as they are said to be will wait for proof positive particularly in this climate of one year wonder QBs (Cleveland) and big contracts not to mention the economy. 

If the OL deteriorates even a little, Eli's lack of mobility can grind the NY passing game and any elite WRs free agents or otherwise to a halt, particularly in the pass rush crazy NFC East.

While the Giants also have big issues (IMO) to deal with in their offensive schemes (Gilbride?) they also have questions (to say the least) with Eli who's struggles are becoming more predictable of late. 

Just dial up the pass rush and stop the run.  No, it's not that the receivers are not getting open, it is that he is not hitting the open receivers consistently enough down field.

Maybe that's why the Giants are not known as a down field team. The blue print is now out there and Earth, Wind and Fire may be a thing of the past (if for no reason then free agency).

While I think he is ok even good at times, as a QB I have some serious doubts about him being in the $100+ QB club.  If he does not fix and I mean fix fast his down field passing then the Giants will simply wait him out next year and Franchise him if they need to while hoping Carr or someone else will step forward.

Don't be surprised if the No. 1 job is up for open competition before you expected it. Don't be surprised if there is a block buster trade in our futures either. 

Think about it; with the offensive game plans, the skill positions and running game we see regularly as Giants fans, how many NFL Starting QBs would mess this up? We see Flacco, Cassel, Warner, and Collins (who were both Giants) amongst others put up good numbers without the type of running game the Giants provide and they have had good seasons (NFL tie breakers and all).

I for one can't say if Eli was swapped with any of those teams they would fair as well all things considered, while I do suspect the Giants probably would have.

It is a good bet that the Giants know well what they have in Eli, and it is my belief the $100M club is a bit of a reach for now. Nuff said.