2012 NFL Draft: Which Offensive Prospects Will Be Most Successful in the NFL?
The 2012 NFL draft is loaded with talent, and most NFL rosters will feature players taken in the sixth and seventh rounds. There will likely be another strong crop of undrafted free agents to choose from after the draft as well.
Narrowing down this talent to which player will have the best NFL career at each offensive position is certainly challenging, but that is exactly what this article is going to attempt.
Some players seem to be a lock for this list, but there will be a few surprises. Picks won't flow in step with mock drafts either, as there are a few players that will need some time to develop and won't be considered for the first round of the draft.
There is a reason there are several surprises come draft day. Pro scouts, coaches and general managers see things a bit differently than draft analysts. They are much more in tune with their team's needs and the skill sets that will transition to the NFL game and will draft on those criteria, not just collegiate performance.
Based on their expected NFL careers, following is a list of the best offensive draft prospects in 2012.
Center: Peter Konz, Wisconsin, 6'5", 314 lbs
1 of 11As much as I might want to offer a surprise here, this race just isn't close. Konz is one of the top interior linemen in the draft and is well ahead of the second-best center, Ben Jones from Georgia.
Konz will be a first-round draft pick and will go to a team that intends to use him as a starter. That looks to be the Baltimore Ravens, but don't be surprised to see a center-needy team move into the first round to grab him.
Konz is physical and has good feet with the ability to pull and get in front of the ball-carrier. He is sturdy in pass-blocking and gets a good push off the line in a power run game.
One of the more impressive parts of Konz's game is the mental aspect. Many centers struggle with coordinating the offensive line when they reach the NFL, but Konz is a smart blocker with good instincts.
The only concern is his durability, as he missed time with injury every season at Wisconsin.
Guard: David DeCastro, Stanford, 6'5", 316 lbs
2 of 11After much effort, I finally found an issue with David DeCastro.
He makes some amazingly odd faces when he's blocking and running. Not just silly...they are mutant-like. This video of him running the 40 at the NFL combine is well worth the look, starting at the two-minute mark.
The last time an offensive guard was taken in the top 15 of the NFL draft was 2001, the year Steve Hutchinson entered the NFL. However, it was Leonard Davis that was taken second overall, not Hutchinson, who lasted until pick No. 17.
I'd be surprised to see another guard taken in the top five, as there isn't enough value in the position to justify that high of a pick. But DeCastro is special enough that he may be a top-10 pick.
DeCastro is an excellent run-blocker and shows the ability, when pass-blocking, to preoccupy a nose tackle with one arm while helping the offensive tackle with the other. He can pull and hit blocks in the open field as good as anyone and will function at an elite level in either a power or zone-blocking scheme.
He helps ladies cross the street, holds doors open for strangers and always eats his vegetables.
Actually, I'm not 100 percent sure on the vegetables, but it was reported that Clark Kent wears DeCastro pajamas.
Guard: Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State, 6'6", 333 lbs
3 of 11This pick is one of the surprise selections, as most lists will feature either Cordy Glenn or Kevin Zeitler in this slot. However, Kelechi Osemele shows raw athleticism, elite strength and a powerful lunge into his blocks that will make him an elite run-blocker.
The concern with Osemele is his pass-blocking technique. He can get too upright too soon, which causes issues with his footwork. It will be difficult to bull-rush him, but throw in an NFL swim move and Osemele can lose his balance and get his feet tangled. His size and lack of speed will keep him on the interior of the line in the NFL.
Osemele will benefit greatly from a solid offensive line coach in the NFL that will hone his skills and work on his instincts. He will likely be a second-round pick, as he will take a little time to develop in the NFL. He might even fall to Round 3.
However, a team that is willing to be a little patient with Osemele will have an incredible bargain.
Right Tackle: Cordy Glenn, Georgia, 6'5", 345 lbs
4 of 11Yes, most every other mock or bit of analysis is going to place Riley Reiff here. I'm not, for a few reasons.
While Reiff has great feet and is a solid blocker, he struggles on occasion with edge rushers. His arm length of 33.25" at the NFL combine could be part of the issue, and I have a concern he will struggle with elite rushers in the NFL.
Reiff will likely be asked to play right tackle or possibly even left guard. He is projected as a top-10 draft pick but should be considered as a viable blocker somewhere in the 20s or later.
Cordy Glenn is a player most are seeing as an offensive guard in the NFL, as he played guard and left tackle in college. He is a big blocker, but there are several teams that like large right tackles. His speed is acceptable, but he isn't as quick as teams would like.
Look for an NFL franchise to take 20 lbs off his frame before training camp. That will help with his quickness and being able to contend with an edge rusher. The Indianapolis Colts might be an ideal landing spot, as they will be considering moving their right tackle to a guard position.
Glenn offers great versatility and will be a late first-round or early second-round pick. His reach is ideal for an NFL tackle, coming in just under 36".
Left Tackle: Matt Kalil, Southern Cal, 6'7", 306 lbs
5 of 11Ryan Kalil had an amazing collegiate career at USC. He was a power blocker that set himself apart and was one of the best linemen in his class. He's a Pro Bowl lineman and just signed the biggest contract ever for a center in the NFL.
His little brother is even better.
Matt Kalil will likely be the third pick in April's draft, although the Minnesota Vikings also need a cornerback. But blockers of Kalil's level aren't readily available with a team's regular pick, so it is difficult to pass on them when opportunity arises.
Kalil has great footwork, bends well at the knees and has active hands in pass-blocking. He is very powerful for a smaller tackle and has the quickness to adjust to NFL defensive ends. He's the David DeCastro of left tackles. He'll also sign a contract in four years that will dwarf that of his brother.
Tight End: Coby Fleener, Stanford, 6'6", 247 lbs
6 of 11Coby Fleener is taking this spot almost by default. Orson Charles had a disappointing pro day, and the NFL combine wasn't particularly kind to Dwayne Allen after he posted an unimpressive 40-yard dash time of 4.89 seconds.
I thought about adding a second tight end and risking the flag for too many men on the field, but neither Charles nor Allen seems worth the risk at this point.
Fleener, however, has been grabbing attention for his fluid routes and blistering pro day performance. He has a great burst off the line and is able to use his size to shield the ball from defenders.
While Fleener has the size and is listed as a tight end, he filled several roles for the Stanford Cardinal.
He would work as an H-back, out of the slot and even jump to the wideout spot. He was effective in all roles, as he has great hands, keeps the ball off his body and posted impressive 40 times in the 4.45-4.5 range at Stanford's pro day.
Fleener wasn't on many priority lists a few weeks ago, but he has captured most everyone's attention now. He's being looked at as a middle to late first-round candidate and could bring a Vernon Davis level of performance to an NFL offense.
Slot: Kendall Wright, Baylor, 5'10", 196 lbs
7 of 11While watching film on Robert Griffin III, two specific things stood out. First, RG3 is an amazing athlete and quarterback. Second, I wasn't sure whom I was more impressed with...Griffin or Kendall Wright.
At this point there are likely two things sticking out for readers too. Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd...which one is left off the list?
To mitigate or add to the suspense, I'm actually placing Wright in as a slot receiver. His height will give him a bit of a challenge against some secondaries, but he certainly has the talent to play outside.
Wright plays faster than his suspected 4.45 combine 40-yard dash time and a lot faster than the "official" 4.61 mark. To put any doubt to rest, he posted pro day times in the 4.41-4.45 range. That helps explain why he has an unbelievable ability to get behind defenders, even when they are expecting it.
Wright led his team in receptions and yards as a true freshman in 2008 and has only gotten better. He gets off the ball well and needs very little time to get to top speed, He'll be dangerous running slants, posts, corner routes, curls, fakes...well, he'll be dangerous regardless of the assignment.
His size could allow some elite NFL corners to do well in press coverage, but very few have the skills to stick to him. This step will likely require safety help over the top, which will open other options for the offense.
Wright will stretch the field and help open up his new team's offense. He's projected as a mid first-round pick, but he has the talent to be considered ahead of Michael Floyd.
Kendall Wright Collegiate Stats
SEASON | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
2011 | 108 | 1,663 | 15.4 | 87 | 14 |
2010 | 78 | 952 | 12.2 | 62 | 7 |
2009 | 66 | 740 | 11.2 | 59 | 4 |
2008 | 50 | 649 | 13.0 | 55 | 5 |
Total | 302 | 4,004 | 13.3 | 87 | 30 |
Wide Receiver No. 2: Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina, 6'3", 213 lbs
8 of 11Yep...there it is. One of the top two receivers in the draft didn't make the cut. In fact, I believe Alshon Jeffery could end up being the best receiver in the 2012 NFL draft.
Jeffery has been perhaps the most difficult draft prospect to figure out in 2012. Had he entered the 2011 draft, he would have been lumped in with the A.J. Green and Julio Jones conversations. A disappointing junior year at South Carolina has had a distinct impact on his draft stock, though.
He posted career lows in yards and yards per catch, although he did manage a respectable eight touchdowns. Jeffery didn’t seem to have the edge and quickness in 2011, possibly linked to a higher playing weight of 233 lbs.
There are other possible explanations for Jeffery’s dip in production. The Gamecocks' quarterback, Stephen Garcia, was released from the team five games into the 2011 season. The offense turned a touch more conservative, as untested sophomore Connor Shaw took over.
Over a four-game span Shaw passed for just 451 yards. The team's ground game was working, so Jeffery and the passing attack simply weren't needed.
The next two games produced a “robust” 427 passing yards, leading up to Shaw’s 230-yard, two-touchdown performance against Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl.
Jeffery had one of the touchdowns and 148 yards, and he did it in three quarters of play. He was ejected from the game following a scuffle with Alfonzo Dennard. While some look negatively on Jeffery for his involvement, it was clear that Dennard was the instigator. He was likely frustrated over his inability to contain a quality receiver.
Jeffery showed he can control his weight, for a month at least. After a 216-lb weigh-in at the NFL combine, he tipped the scales at 213 at his pro day. He also showed he can still burn a rug, posting 40 times in the 4.45-4.52 range.
I’ve had Jeffery in and out of the top 10 in 2012 mock drafts going back to last spring. He could be a late first-round selection and will be an absolute steal if a team is able to select him there. Paired with a quality quarterback, Jeffery will stretch the field and challenge shorter corners around the NFL.
Alshon Jeffery Collegiate Stats
YEAR | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
2011 | 49 | 762 | 15.6 | 78 | 8 |
2010 | 88 | 1,517 | 17.2 | 72 | 9 |
2009 | 46 | 763 | 16.6 | 80 | 6 |
Total | 183 | 3,042 | 16.6 | 80 | 23 |
Wide Receiver No. 1: Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State, 6'1", 207 lbs
9 of 11The addition of Justin Blackmon means that Michael Floyd did not make the cut. While some consider Floyd to be the best receiver in this class, I have concerns with the crispness of his routes and his ability to get off the line of scrimmage. He's at risk to be held in check by press corners in the NFL.
It could be that I'm suspect of Notre Dame receivers, but Floyd could struggle in the NFL.
Perhaps the multiple alcohol-related arrests concern me, or maybe I don't like how he seems to favor trying to make the spectacular one-handed grab at times when a two-handed one would be better. I'm also concerned that, in the three games I watched, I never saw corners attempting to press him. They won't be intimidated by him in the NFL.
Blackmon is a player that I continue to try to find an issue with. He isn't that tall, nor is he overly strong. But he's got solid speed, great leaping ability and can separate at the line of scrimmage.
Most important, he can find the ball and go up and catch it. He is a very sure-handed receiver, and should he end up in Cleveland, he'll give Colt McCoy the kind of weapon he needs to succeed.
Blackmon's yards after the catch are also impressive. He doesn't like to go down and has the ability to make defenders miss in the open field. He can move into the slot and run quick slants or stay outside and work opposing corners.
Justin Blackmon Collegiate Stats
SEASON | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
2011 | 121 | 1,522 | 12.6 | 67 | 18 |
2010 | 111 | 1,782 | 16.1 | 81 | 20 |
2009 | 20 | 260 | 13.0 | 32 | 2 |
Total | 252 | 3,564 | 14.1 | 81 | 40 |
Running Back: Trent Richardson, Alabama, 5'9", 228 lbs
10 of 11This may be a cop-out, but Trent Richardson should be a top-five pick in the 2012 NFL draft.
While he may not trump the career of the last player on this list, he could very well be the most dominant of any other offensive player from the 2012 draft. Depending on the team that drafts him, he may also be a favorite to win some offensive rookie of the year awards.
Richardson has the size and quickness to become an elite runner in the NFL. He can hit an interior hole with power or patience and will drive outside to find open space. He may not have the speed to get around the corner as much in the NFL as he did in college, but he is deceptively fast for a back of his size.
When Richardson isn't able to beat pursuers to the corner, he will flash his biggest talent: shedding would-be tacklers.
His strength and drive will transfer well to the NFL, particularly against some of the linebackers and defensive backs that favor big hits over fundamental tackling.
Conventional wisdom says the devaluation of running backs should keep them out of the top 10 of the draft. Richardson is no conventional back, though. The Cleveland Browns may consider passing on Justin Blackmon and filling their running back position first.
Trent Richardson Collegiate Stats
| Rushing Statistics | Receiving Statistics | ||||||||
SEASON | RUSH | YDS | YPC | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | YPC | LNG | TD |
2011 | 283 | 1,679 | 5.9 | 76 | 21 | 29 | 338 | 11.7 | 61 | 3 |
2010 | 112 | 700 | 6.3 | 65 | 6 | 23 | 266 | 11.6 | 85 | 4 |
2009 | 145 | 751 | 5.2 | 52 | 8 | 16 | 126 | 7.9 | 17 | 0 |
Total | 540 | 3,130 | 5.8 | 76 | 35 | 68 | 730 | 10.7 | 85 | 7 |
Quarterback: Andrew Luck, Stanford, 6'4", 234 lbs
11 of 11While there has been some talk of Robert Griffin III taking over the top spot in the draft, I just don't see it happening. He will land with the Washington Redskins—where talent has gone to die in recent season.
To be fair, Dan Snyder has been better as of late. He seems to be more hands off, leaving operations to the football minds he pays to run his franchise. If this continues, Mike Shanahan should be able to create a formidable offense and give RG3 an opportunity to shine.
Griffin looked to bridge the gap from him to Luck with what looked to be a near-flawless pro day. However, Andrew Luck responded the next day and showed he is simply on a different level than any other passer to come out of college since perhaps Peyton Manning. There is no way the Indianapolis Colts can pass on him.
Early life for Luck in Indianapolis might not be a picnic, though. The team is in the process of rebuilding and is a bit behind, as the talent of Manning hid many of its deficiencies.
Luck will have a few weapons on his side of the ball, but the Colts might be challenged in keeping the opposition away from him. Three spots on the offensive line are changing, and possibly four depending on what the Colts do with Ben Ijalana. They also cut ties with their top two tight ends and lost Pierre Garcon in free agency.
Oh...they also need a running back but have ignored affordable free-agent options like Michael Bush and Mike Tolbert.
It will take a few years to turn the roster, but the Colts will likely find themselves drafting early in 2013. Given the number of elite quarterbacks coming out, they may be able to find a trading partner that has some draft capital to expedite their roster growth.
Luck will struggle in 2012 but should see marked improvement thereafter.
Andrew Luck Collegiate Stats
SEASON | CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | Rating |
2011 | 288 | 404 | 3,517 | 71.3 | 8.71 | 62 | 37 | 10 | 169.7 |
2010 | 263 | 372 | 3,338 | 70.7 | 8.97 | 81 | 32 | 8 | 170.2 |
2009 | 162 | 288 | 2,575 | 56.3 | 8.94 | 63 | 13 | 4 | 143.5 |
Total | 713 | 1,064 | 9,430 | 67.0 | 8.86 | 81 | 82 | 22 |
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