Ravens-Steelers Preview: AFC Championship On The Line

Mark Jones' NFL Weekly Previews

I was 4-0 with the spread last week, and 3-1 without it.

Baltimore Ravens (13-5)

Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)

Sunday 6:30 PM ET, CBS

So it's all come down to this: the AFC Championship game. These two teams are division rivals, but they've only met each other once before now in the postseason (Pittsburgh came out on top in 2001, 27-10).

The Ravens have seen the Steelers twice already this year, and not yet picked up a win.

Their first try was in Week Four, when the Steelers pulled out a 23-20 home win in overtime...

Joe Flacco had an average game, going 16-of-31 for 192 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. The rushing game also had an average day, as McClain and McGahee had a combined 105 yards and a touchdown on 29 attempts.

Derick Mason was deadly, though, as he was the Ravens' outright offensive star of the game, having 137 yards receiving on eight catches (though he had no TDs).

On the other side, Roethlisberger had a decent stat line; 14-of-24, 191 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int. The two rival quarterbacks had a difference of one yard passing. Holmes, Ward, Moore, and Washington each had at least 20 yards receiving.

One difficulty for the Steelers was that three different rushers, each having eight or more carries, only managed 2.3 yards per carry (58 yards on 25 rushes)!

Then there was another matchup between these two teams, this time in Week 15 in Baltimore. The Steelers scored a questionable touchdown to take the lead late in the game and never gave it up, winning 13-9...

Neither offense was very prominent, but the Steelers did manage over 300 total yards.

Roethlisberger had a good day passing, having 246 yards and a TD on 22 completions, as well as 21 yards rushing, while Flacco had one of his worst games of the season, going 11-of-28 for 115 yards, no touchdowns, and two picks.

Rushing-wise, Pittsburgh combined for a mediocre 89 yards on 27 rushes. Baltimore was better, getting 112 yards on 31 carries.

Nate Washington and Hines Ward were great for the Steelers, getting 184 yards receiving on 13 receptions. On the other side of the field, the leading Ravens receiver (Michael Clayton) had just 38 yards.

Last week, the Steelers were very troublesome to the uprising San Diego Chargers, defeating them 35-24, in a snowy affair.

Roethlisberger was 17-of-26 for 181 yds and a TD. Four Pittsburgh receivers had 25 or more yards; Ward had 70, Miller 37, Washington 30, and Holmes 25.

Parker was the star of the game for Pittsburgh, with 146 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries.

For the Chargers, Rivers actually had a good day, going 21-of-35 for 308 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Four Charger receivers had more than 45 yards.

It was the rushing game that blew San Diego's chances. Sproles was held to a whopping 15 yards on 11 tries!

Penalties were also a big difficulty for the Chargers, having eight of them for over 100 yards.

The Ravens also pulled out a close victory in harsh weather conditions

In Tennessee last week, the Ravens were outgained horribly, having 180 less yards than their opponents, the Titans. But they still managed to win and move into this game at the Steelers.

Flacco didn't have a breakout day, going just 11-of-22 for 161 yards. Mason did have an impressive game receiving, racking up 78 yards and a touchdown.

The Ravens were also shut down rushing, with McClain and McGahee managing only 2.0 yards per carry (44 yards on 22 carries)!

For the Titans, Kerry Collins was 26-of-42 for 281 yards, nearly doubling Flacco's pass attempt total. Receiver Justin Gage had a great day, getting 135 yards on 10 receptions.

Rushing was dependable but not excellent for the Titans, as Johnson and White had 107 yards on 26 carries. The rushing stats probably would have been better if Johnson hadn't been injured halfway through the game, as he was responsible for 72 of those 107 yards. 

Penalties were also costly for Tennessee, having 12 penalties for 89 yards against them, compared to eight penalties for 40 yards for the Ravens. Penalty trouble was common among losers in the AFC last weekend.

I think this should be another close, defensive battle just like in Week 15, Steelers pull out another at the last moment, this time in overtime.

Straight-Up Pick: Ravens 13, Steelers 16 OT

Spread Pick: Ravens (+6)

Ravens vs. Steelers: Series History

Postseason Series: Steelers lead, 1-0

2001: Ravens 10, Steelers 27 (Divisional Round)

Regular Season Series: Steelers lead, 16-10

Ravens are 1-7 at the Steelers.

Sources