2012 NFL Mock Draft: Overrated Players Who Will Crash and Burn

Every player with a chance to go in the first round of the NFL Draft is immensely talented, but for one reason or another, not all of them will excel at the next level. While the reason behind that for some will be the lack of a proper opportunity, it usually comes down to a player having a skill set that thrived at the collegiate level, but doesn't translate to the NFL.

Picking out these land mines is no easy task, and there is sure to be plenty of them this year, just like there has been every single year in the past. Some players like Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson look like sure things to be successful NFL players, but others are simply a coin toss that could be a Pro Bowler just as easily as a major bust.

In addition to a full, first-round mock draft, here is an analysis of a few first-round picks who simply won't live up to their advanced billing.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

As much as the Colts are waffling with regards to whether they'll take Luck or Griffin No. 1 overall, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Luck is their man.

2. Washington Redskins (5-11): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor (via STL) 

The Redskins mortgaged their future for this one pick, and while they'll be happy with either Luck or Griffin, the expectation was that Griffin would be the pick, and he will be.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC 

Minnesota is in the advantageous spot of getting its pick of anyone but the top quarterbacks, and it will use the pick on an elite offensive tackle in Kalil.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

The fourth overall pick isn't great value for a running back, but the Browns need one desperately with Peyton Hillis gone and Richardson looks like a safe bet to be great in the NFL.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

Tampa Bay has done a great job addressing its needs via free agency, but with cornerback Ronde Barber on his last legs, Claiborne has to be the selection.

6. St. Louis Rams (2-14): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State (via WAS)

The Rams have already won the draft in my mind thanks to the package they got for the No. 2 pick, and they'll get their main target in Blackmon at this juncture anyway.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

At 6'6" and 284 lbs., North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples is a physically-imposing force that almost any team would love the opportunity to draft. After strong Senior Bowl and Combine performances he appears to have cemented himself as the top defensive end in the draft, but there is reason to worry about him.

Coples had 17.5 sacks over the past two seasons, and while that is solid, I wouldn't call it elite. He had to deal with the difficulty of shuttling between defensive end and defensive tackle, but it's fair to question Coples' consistency. From what I've seen over the years, once a player struggles with consistency as a collegiate player, he rarely shakes that at the next level.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are in desperate need of a pass rusher to team with Jeremy Mincey, so it would be a shock to see Coples slip past them at No. 7. It's easy to see why teams would be impressed with Coples' physical tools, but if he doesn't bring his "A" game every day, then his skills won't be of much use to the Jags or anyone else.

8. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

After trading Brandon Marshall and losing out on Peyton Manning the Dolphins have a lot of holes, but they'll plug the one on the right side of their offensive line with Reiff.

9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

It's a little disconcerting to see a player rise up the draft boards as dramatically as Brockers has, but the Panthers have no choice but to address their interior defensive line.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

The Bills made some big moves on defense this offseason, namely signing Mario Williams, and drafting Floyd will give them a formidable receiving combo along with Stevie Johnson.

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Kansas City looks to have pretty solid depth at almost every position on both sides of the ball, but an offensive tackle like Martin would do the running game a great service.

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Chris Clemons is a nice pass rusher, but he can't do it all on his own, so the Seahawks have to nab a 4-3 defensive end in the form of Ingram.

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

Say what you will about Kuechly's lack of speed or athletic ability, but he will be a playmaker and an absolute rock in the middle of Arizona's defense.

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Cowboys' secondary has been a major Achilles' heel for the past several years, but drafting Kirkpatrick should be a big step toward fixing that problem.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Philadelphia's defense was the main reason why the Eagles' "Dream Team" didn't take flight last season, but Barron could serve as the quarterback of the secondary.

16. New York Jets (8-8): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

Almost every team in the NFL could use another legitimate pass rusher, and there are several first-round talents with the ability to be just that. Deciding which will pan out and which will fizzle is almost impossible, but one particular pass rusher that I'm not as high on as other seem to be in Alabama hybrid Courtney Upshaw.

At 6'2" and 265 lbs. Upshaw has the ability to play 4-3 end or 3-4 linebacker and that type of versatility adds to his value, but it means nothing if he can't get to the quarterback at the next level. Despite playing for four seasons on a star-studded defense, Upshaw accrued just 17.5 career sacks with the Crimson Tide. Granted, he was only a starter in his final two seasons, but Upshaw doesn't have the eye-popping numbers you look for in a prospect.

His draft value soared after he was named the National Championship Game's most valuable defensive player as he was a disruptive force. Much of that had to do with the incompetence of LSU's quarterback play, though. The New York Jets will probably scoop him up since they are running thin on rush linebackers, but Upshaw looks like a major risk to me.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-8): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

The Bengals were way ahead of schedule last year and have a great luxury with two first-round picks, they first of which they'll use on Wright to complement A.J. Green.

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

San Diego, despite all its talent, is a tough team to figure out, but with Kris Dielman retiring, the Chargers need a guard like DeCastro to replace him.

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

With quarterback Jay Cutler returning from injury, the Bears should be on the rebound, but they could really use a stabilizing force such as Konz at center.

20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Nick Perry, DE, USC

The Titans have a large stable of pass rushers, but none would be considered top notch. Perry has the skills to be a double-digit sack guy in the NFL, though.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

Taking a troubled player like Jenkins may not be the best idea for the Bengals, but they need a cornerback and he is the best at this juncture.

22. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 10-6): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

The Browns could go in a number of different directions, but in a division with so many great pass rushers, they need to improve the offensive line with Adams.

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

Detroit's secondary was absolutely torched in the last couple games of the season, so while Dennard may be a reach, he's a true necessity.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

Nose tackle Casey Hampton is aging and dealing with a torn ACL, so the Steelers really have to move on and gamble on the unique talent that is Poe.

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

Peyton Manning loves to throw to his tight ends, and the Broncos will make their new quarterback happy by getting him a big target in Fleener.

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Andre Johnson has been an elite wide receiver in the NFL for a long time and he has been the heart and soul of the Houston Texans, but he can only do so much on his own. Johnson has succumbed to injuries over the past couple seasons and in his absence, Matt Schaub and other Texans quarterbacks haven't had anyone reliable to throw to.

Also, when Johnson does play, he has never had anyone to draw coverage away from him. With so many first-round-quality wide receivers in this year's draft, I fully expect Houston to spring for a complement to Johnson. There are a few options, but because of his incredible 2010 campaign at South Carolina, I believe Alshon Jeffery will be the pick.

Jeffery is a big, physical pass catcher, but he regressed in 2011 with the Gamecocks' quarterback situation in limbo. Even so, he has a lot of talent and has the potential to be a great receiver. Jeffery doesn't seem to give it his all on every down, though, and as discussed previously, that simply isn't a recipe for success in the NFL.

27. New England Patriots (via NO 13-3): Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois

After losing Mark Anderson in free agency and Andre Carter to injury, the Patriots need a pass rusher and Mercilus definitely fits the bill.

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Devon Still, DL, Penn State

The Packers' defense regressed on a large scale last season, but a space-eating defensive lineman like Still would open up more room for everyone to operate.

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama

The Ravens have the luxury of taking the best player available with this pick and I expect them to nab an understudy for Ray Lewis in the form of Hightower.

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

San Francisco fell just short of the Super Bowl last season and looks good at just about every position, but Glenn would really help round out the offensive line.

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Fletcher Cox, DL, Mississippi State

The Patriots lack both depth and star power at every position on defense, so they could use a versatile player like Cox along the defensive line.

32. New York Giants (9-7): Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson

The Giants signed Martellus Bennett at tight end, but he has never been a sole starter, so New York ought to grab another player like Allen.