Weekly NFL Picks: Championship Weekend

Josh BrewerJan 16, 2009

It seems like yesterday that I wrote my first picks column of the 2008 NFL season. And now, here we are, with only three games remaining until we crown a world champion.

I posed this question to one of my roommates, who responded with a laugh: If I told you, at the beginning of the season, the Arizona Cardinals would be hosting the NFC Championship Game, what would you say?

But it will happen. The Cardinals (completely unexpected) and Steelers (a surprise to few, if any) provide the venue for this weekend's title games. Road teams are a stunning 5-3 thus far in the postseason.

San Diego eliminated the Colts at home in the wildcard round. The other two home winners?

Arizona and Pittsburgh.

The bandwagons are full and the wheels are about to fall off two of them. How will the road warriors fare with everything on the line?

Let's get to the picks.

NFC Championship: Philadelphia (11-6-1) at Arizona (11-7)

The most popular of postseason bandwagons has already rolled through Minneapolis and East Rutherford, picking up loads of passengers along the way. Now bursting at the seams, it rolls into Glendale, along with the Eagles, to take on the Cardinals.

Statistical rankings become irrelevant at this time of year and these two teams indicate that better than anyone. Arizona's defensive unit ranked 19th in the NFL during the regular season but has been lights out this postseason. Philly's offense was one-dimensional during the regular season but has found balance in January.

ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski felt the need to claim the Eagles were "a virtual lock for the Super Bowl" on Sunday night, not six hours after Philadelphia's win in New York. A bit premature, Gene, don't you think?

Nobody is giving the Cardinals a chance Sunday afternoon. Seemingly everyone has Philadelphia booked for Tampa to face the winner of Sunday night's Ravens-Steelers tilt.

Before Saturday night's Cardinals-Panthers game, I said if any team had a chance to be last year's Giants—the team nobody believed in—it was these Arizona Cardinals.

I've picked against the Eagles five weeks in a row. I wouldn't do it again...would I?

The Pick: Cardinals 30, Eagles 21.

AFC Championship: Baltimore (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4)

It's hard to beat a team three times in a season. These two teams just don't like each other. This game won't be for the faint of heart. Defense wins championships and these teams have the best defenses in the NFL.

Pick your cliche. They're all overused...but they're also all true.

Nobody can get over the no-call delay of game in last week's divisional match-up between Baltimore and Tennessee. Everyone seems to forget it took a highly controversial touchdown for the Steelers to beat Baltimore at M&T Bank Stadium last month.

The focus all week has been on Joe Flacco's play—and when he'll make his first huge rookie mistake. Pittsburgh hasn't drawn any criticism and, according to most so-called experts, shouldn't have much of a problem Sunday night.

The line on this game is an inexplicable six points as of Friday afternoon. That's up from the five points the Ravens were giving earlier in the week. Of all the picks I've read this week, not one person is picking the Ravens to win.

It took Pittsburgh two games to beat Baltimore by a total of seven points. Now the Ravens will lose by at least a touchdown, without question, this weekend? This doesn't add up, rookie QB or not.

My gut says Baltimore wins. My pre-playoff pick says Pittsburgh wins.

I hope my gut overrides my pick for the second week in a row. But, because I have to ...