2012 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Predicting Stats for Top Starting Pitchers

You don't want to be too quick to draft starting pitching in your fantasy baseball draft, but you don't want to hang back and watch all the best aces come off the board either.

In other words, you have to know when to strike and who to target.

Odds are you know all the big names, and my guess is that my list of the best doesn't differ much from your list of the best. The true question is what kind of numbers you can expect to get from the top starting pitchers around the league.

I'll take a stab at answering that question. Here are projections for the top five starting pitchers in baseball.

5. CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

CC Sabathia is a guy who won't necessarily keep your ERA and WHIP absurdly low. Since joining the Yankees, Sabathia's ERA is a modest 3.18 and his WHIP is a merely decent 1.19.

Sabathia's value is in his ability to consistently rack up tons of wins, as there are very few starters who can be counted on to win close to or more than 20 games in a season year in and year out. Sabathia has won 59 games in his three seasons in pinstripes and has yet to win fewer than 19.

Sabathia will also pad your strikeout total. He won't stray too far below 200 total strikeouts, and he's coming off a season in which he struck out 230 hitters.

He may not be a threat to post an ERA in the low 2.00s or a WHIP at or below 1.00, but Sabathia will be well worth a high draft pick:

Projection: 19 W, 230 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

4. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

Here's a disclaimer: Justin Verlander is not going to be as dominant in 2012 as he was in 2011.

That's just too much to ask. Verlander was outstanding, but he benefited from an absurdly low .236 BABIP, and his FIP of 2.99 was over half a run higher than his 2.40 ERA.

But don't worry too much. We know that Verlander is good for at least 220 innings, and he's going to get a ton of strikeouts and keep a lot of runners off the bases. I'm expecting him to pitch more like he did in 2009 and 2010, except a little better.

Verlander won't have another epic season like he did in 2011, but don't be afraid to draft him if you get the chance.

Projection: 19 W, 230 K, 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

3. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies

Cliff Lee lived up to the hype in his return to Philadelphia, winning 17 games and posting an ERA of 2.40. Everyone expected him to be good, but I'm sure few expected him to be that good. 

Part of the reason Lee was so much more dominant than usual was because he struck out a lot more hitters than usual. He had a K/9 of 9.21, leading to a career-high 238 strikeouts. His previous career high was 185 strikeouts, done in 2010.

Lee is not a strikeout pitcher by trade, so there's bound to be some regression in the strikeout category. But his ERA and WHIP will stay very strong, as Lee has proven himself to be a great fit in the National League.

In the end, we'll be looking at another fantastic season from Lee.

Projection: 18 W, 225 K, 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

2. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw became the pitcher he was supposed to be in 2011, and the numbers all speak for themselves.

The key difference, which was noticed by everyone, was Kershaw's improved control. He dropped his BB/9 all the way from 3.57 in 2010 to 2.08. He did that while keeping his K/9 at 9.57.

All told, Kershaw struck out 248 hitters, the most in the National League. 

The key concern with Kershaw is that the wins won't be there again. In addition, his control might bite him again, resulting in fewer innings and fewer strikeouts.

Still, we're talking a minor regression, if any.

Projection: 17 W, 240 K, 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

1. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

Roy Halladay is the most dependable starting pitcher in fantasy baseball. 

In two seasons with the Phillies, Halladay has won exactly 40 games with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He was remarkably consistent from 2010 to 2011, but he spoiled fantasy owners in 2011 by upping his K/9 to 8.47. He ended up striking out a career-high 220 batters.

There's just no reason to doubt Halladay's ability to put up fantastic numbers. He should be the first starting pitcher off the board in your draft.

Projection: 20 W, 215 K, 2.40 ERA, 1.05 WHIP