Baylor vs. Xavier: Keys to Musketeers Shocking Bears

The No. 3-seeded Baylor Bears hold most of the statistical advantages of the No. 10-seeded Xavier Musketeers, but that doesn’t mean this is a shoo-in.

With the Muskies in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five games, this is not your mom’s mid-major double-digit seed. The only other teams to have this claim? Kansas, Michigan State and North Carolina.

Here are the keys for the six-point underdogs to shock the big bad Bears.

Kenny Freese Must Show Up

It has been a rather disappointing career for the 7-foot senior, but he is making up for it in the tournament. He scored a career-high 25 points (11-of-13 shooting) and 12 rebounds on Sunday against Lehigh. He was playing like the physical and intelligent big man fans have been waiting for.

If he can hang with Perry Jones III in the paint and at least force him into questionable shots, the Bears are going to be in big trouble in the paint. Any offense from Freese is gravy.

Baylor’s Hot Shooting Must Cool Off

In their 80-63 win over Colorado, Baylor was unconsciousness from three-point land. Brady Heslip was a ridiculous 9-of-12 from behind the arc and he busted out the “three-point goggles” after most of them.

Don’t expect to see the goggles this time around.

The length and quickness of the Xavier guards will ensure Baylor won’t be seeing very many open looks. They hold opponents to a 30-percent clip from downtown and have been even better in their last five games.

Expect that trend to continue.

Xavier’s Guards Must Dominate

Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons are arguably the best backcourt duo remaining in the tournament, and can run circles around Baylor.

Holloway was a preseason All-American candidate and averaged over 17 points during the regular season. In the first round against Notre Dame, Holloway scored 17 of his 25 points in the second half to ensure the victory. He can strap the team on his back and nobody on Baylor can stay in front of him.

Expect his dribble-drive to be a big problem for the Bears.

Lyons is a deadly 40-percent three-point shooter who excels in catch-and-shoot scenarios. As long as Holloway can get in the paint to find him open looks, it’s going to be tough for Baylor to overcome.

Prediction: Xavier 67, Baylor 63

I love Xavier’s ability to shake off the Crosstown Shootout brawl and poor play after that to emerge a more mentally tough team. Holloway is the best player on the court and as long as Jones is neutralized…it’s upset city baby!

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