Evidence Mounts That It Doesn't Pay to Take Running Backs Early in the NFL Draft

If teams weren't downplaying the importance of running back on their boards in the upcoming NFL draft, the results of free agency and the state of the position around the league should give them pause before investing heavily in a back next month.

Exhibit A: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Peyton Hillis and Michael Bush

Three of the most attractive backs on the market, and none came at a heavy cost.

Michael Bush is an adequate starter at worst and looked like more at times last year. The Bears signed him to a four-year, 14 million dollar deal with seven million guaranteed. The Law Firm's contract terms haven't been announced yet (as reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter), but surely they won't be exorbitant. Hillis signed a cheap, one-year deal. Even if you think he was mailing it in because of his contract situation last year, what better motivation for such a player than a one-year "prove it" deal?

Any team that came strong would have landed their pick of this trio, and it wouldn't have been expensive. Also they are an undrafted free agent, a seventh-round pick and a fourth-round pick, more proof that quality backs can be found.

While none of them are elite backs, they can be productive in a good power running game.

Exhibit B: The Detroit Lions

According to CBS Sports' John Kreger, the Lions hosted LaMichael James. No one should be surprised that they are open to taking a back in the mid-rounds this year. That's despite taking backs in the first and second round in the last two drafts.

Jahvid Best's durability issues were a worry at draft time because of a massive concussion he suffered at California and he was on the sidelines for most of last season, but Mikel Leshoure's preseason torn Achilles was unforeseeable. Not that it stopped the Lions from having their best season this millennium.

Exhibit C: Primary Running Backs on the Final Eight Playoff Teams

Let's start with the Super Bowl teams. The Giants drafted Ahmad Bradshaw in the seventh round and Brandon Jacobs in the fourth round. The Patriots didn't even draft Green-Ellis or Danny Woodhead.

The conference championship-losing 49ers featured a third-round pick, Frank Gore. The Baltimore Ravens did have a feature back, Ray Rice, but he was only a late second-round pick. The losers in the divisional rounds were New Orleans (modestly priced free-agent Darren Sproles and undrafted free-agents Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory), Green Bay (Ryan Grant, acquired for a sixth-round pick, and James Starks, a sixth-round pick), Houston (undrafted free-agent Arian Foster) and Denver (modestly priced free-agent Willis McGahee).

Not one of the teams was fueled by a first-round running back.

Exhibit D: The Fate of First-Round Running Backs

Of the 14 running backs selected in the first round over the last five years, only four were selected by 2011 playoff teams—Best, Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos), Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Mark Ingram (New Orleans Saints)—and all four were on injured reserve.

Buffalo has taken two first-round running backs in that span and been to the playoffs zero times. Arizona has taken a running back in the first and second round in the last three years and been to the playoffs once.

Correlation does not equal causation, but a heavy investment at the running back position, whether in free agency or the draft, does not seem to be a prerequisite for team success.

Conclusion

The injury rate, severity of injuries suffered by running backs, inexpensive cost of running backs in free agency and increasing move towards specialized roles at the position are all driving down the value of an elite, do-everything running back.

The Cleveland Browns would be wise to resist the temptation of taking Trent Richardson at No. 4 and wait for a second-tier back at their early second round pick. Likewise, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and St. Louis Rams should opt for another position at No. 5 and No. 6.

There are too many examples of picks outside of the top 50 sufficiently addressing running back and reasonable investments in free agency.