Indiana Basketball: 4 Bold Predictions for the Hoosiers in the Sweet 16

Undoubtedly, the most anticipated matchup of the Sweet 16 and maybe even the entire tournament, Kentucky and Indiana will face off again this Friday at 9:45 p.m. for its second showdown of the season.

Kentucky, again, is favored to win this matchup on Friday. However, no one should completely count out the Hoosiers just yet. 

Here are four bold predictions for the Hoosiers during this matchup. 

Indiana and Kentucky May Be More Evenly Matched Than We Think

Yes, Kentucky has by far one of the best, highly skilled squads in the nation, maybe even in history (if they win the National Championship). Most of its starters will go on to have great, budding careers in the NBA. For the majority of Indiana’s players, this is probably not the case. 

There is no question Kentucky’s squad is more superior. While Indiana’s team is the polar opposite in terms of star status, Kentucky and Indiana, by the numbers, are more evenly matched in certain aspects of their game. 

Across the board offensively, Indiana and Kentucky are very similar: Both average a field goal percentage of 48.7 percent, both average a high-scoring 77 points per game, and both teams average 13 assists, and both average similar rebounds per game, Indiana with 35 and Kentucky with 39, respectively.

Defensively, there are greater distinctions between the two squads. Kentucky does have the advantage with regards to blocks and defensive stops, averaging 8.7 blocks per game compared to Indiana’s 3.2.  Without question, if Indiana wants to win this game, it is going to come down to its defensive play.

Indiana Will Need to Play Its Best Defensive Game of the Season

As mentioned, Indiana and Kentucky are very even when comparing shooting percentages and points per game: Both teams score a lot, and when they shoot, it most likely will go in no matter where the shooter is on the floor.  

Kentucky has a lot of offensive threats, so Indiana will need to limit Kentucky’s ball movement and force the Wildcats to take uncomfortable shots.

Indiana Is More Prepared Based on Conference Scheduling

The Big Ten has been no cakewalk this season. With top tier squads like Michigan State (a No. 1 seed in the tournament), Ohio State (a No. 2 seed), Wisconsin (a No. 4 seed) and Michigan (a No. 5 seed), and even middle to lower tier teams like Northwestern, Purdue (a No. 10 seed) and Iowa, the Big Ten is arguably the best all-around conference this season. 

In the heat of the season, the Hoosiers had to play a Jared Sullinger, Draymond Green or Trey Burke once or twice a week. With this strength of schedule, Indiana is one of the most prepared teams in the tournament as it had very tough matchups every week during conference play. 

While the SEC does boast a few strong competitors in conference, Kentucky has not been challenged on a weekly basis like Indiana has facing strong Big Ten competitors. From Indiana’s experience, it is safe to assume they will be able to keep up with Kentucky and make this a competitive game.

Indiana Has Nothing to Lose

Let’s face it: Indiana is not favored to win this game or the National Championship. For Hoosiers fans, it’s been an enjoyable, unexpected ride to the Sweet 16 thus far.

For Kentucky, it would be a failure for them to achieve anything less than the national title this season. Just like Dec. 10, the Hoosiers can relax to some extent, as there is no pressure for Indiana with regards to the outcome of this game.