Sweet 16 Predictions: Championship Odds for Every Team

If you are anything like me, you are probably ready to tear up your NCAA tournament bracket and start anew.

So for those of us lamenting the early rounds, let's instead focus our attention on the 16 remaining teams and the odds each have of winning a national championship.

Can North Carolina overcome the potential loss of Kendall Marshall? Will the absence of Fab Melo finally catch up to Syracuse? Which of the remaining four Big Ten teams is most likely to cut the nets?

I've ranked each of the 16 teams remaining in the Big Dance and offered some odds for your viewing pleasure.

Enjoy.

16. Ohio Bobcats

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 200 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 1%

Analysis: Beating Michigan (a team they matched up very well against) and USF is one thing.

Trying to beat North Carolina—with or without Kendall Marshall—is quite another thing altogether. I don't see the Bobcats advancing past the Sweet 16.

15. Xavier Musketeers

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 200 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 1%

Analysis: Kudos to Xavier for beating Notre Dame and Lehigh. But for the Musketeers to even reach the Final Four, they'll have to get past Baylor and likely Kentucky, unless Indiana has something to say about that.

Xavier is a good team and could feasibly beat Baylor, but I don't see them advancing past mighty Kentucky in the Elite Eight.

14. NC State Wolfpack

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 100 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 1%

Analysis: Of all of the deep sleepers, NC State is the most capable of going on a deep run.

But with Kansas and North Carolina looming, I don't see that deep run happening. Sadly, I don't think this is the year we'll have any VCU or Butler-esque teams reaching the Final Four. Too much strength at the top of the bracket for that.

13. Florida Gators

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 50 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 2%

Analysis: I love Florida's deep stable of guards (Kenny Boynton, Bradley Beal and Erving Walker), but what concerns me is that they haven't beaten a truly elite team once this year.

They lost to Ohio State. They lost to Syracuse. They lost to Kentucky three times!

It also concerns me that the team's leading rebounder is the 6'3" Beal (6.5 RPG), especially if they advance past Marquette in the Sweet 16 and have to play either Louisville (27th in rebounds per game) or Michigan State (26th in rebounds per game).

12. Indiana Hoosiers

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 75 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 2%

Analysis: Indiana is one of two teams to beat Kentucky this season and went 11-7 in a tough Big Ten this year, so they can't be counted out.

Then again, they won't have Kentucky coming into their house this time around.

It also seems unlikely that they'll hold Anthony Davis to only six points in 24 minutes of play. Plus, Kentucky probably wont turn the ball over 17 times (they average 11.4 turnovers per game) like they did when the two teams first met.

Finally, I don't think Indiana can replicate the 9-of-15 shooting from beyond the arc (Indiana makes 6.4 threes per game, though they do shoot 43.7 percent from downtown) that was key in the first meeting.

In other words, it seems unlikely Indiana will get past Kentucky.

11. Cincinnati Bearcats

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 75 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 2%

Analysis: If Cincinnati can get past Ohio State, they have a legitimate shot to get to the Final Four.

I don't think they'll get past Ohio State.

Cincinnati is a good defensive team, holding opponents to 61.0 points per game this year. The problem is, Ohio State has been a better defensive team this year (59.3 points per game allowed) and, oh yeah, they're better offensively too.

I know that isn't really an exact science seeing as each matchup is different—and Cincinnati is a physically tough team, no doubt about that—but Ohio State simply has more talent across the board.

In the battle of Ohio, the Bearcats will fall to the Buckeyes.

10. Louisville Cardinals

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 30 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 2%

Analysis: Louisville is another squad that can probably win on any given night but might be running into an opponent too difficult to advance past in Michigan State in the Sweet 16.

Both teams play solid defense, rebound well and are balanced offensively, but Louisville's poor shooting (42.5 field goal percentage, 225th in the nation) will eventually catch up to them, even if they advance past Michigan State.

9. Wisconsin Badgers

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 30 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 2%

Analysis: If you look at Wisconsin's record against teams remaining in the Sweet 16, they are 3-6, and two of those wins came against Indiana. Against Ohio State, Michigan State, North Carolina and Marquette, they went 1-6, with the one win coming against Ohio State.

Yes, they lost to Michigan State three times this year.

Wisconsin is very good. But they aren't elite.

8. Marquette Golden Eagles

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 30 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 2%

Analysis: Marquette can flat-out score, there's no two ways about that, and both Darius Johnson-Odom (18.5 PPG) and Jae Crowder (17.6 PPG) can flat-out score the rock. A matchup against guard-heavy Florida will be a lot of fun.

But I think the size-challenged Golden Eagles will struggle against the superior interior games of either Michigan State or Louisville in the Elite Eight. They split with Louisville this season, though the Cardinals were beat up in the first matchup between the two.

7. Syracuse Orange

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 7 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 5%

Analysis: For a team that already struggled to rebound, losing Fab Melo—the Big East defender of the year and the team's leader in rebounds and blocked shots—is likely a championship death sentence.

Syracuse has enough talent and depth to compete with anyone. But losing Melo transformed them from an elite team to a very good team, and I simply don't think a very good team can win the tournament this year.

6. Baylor Bears

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 25 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 5%

Analysis: Baylor has a ton of talent and five players who average 10 or more points. That's scary offensive balance.

But I can't get past one stat: The Bears were 1-5 against Missouri and Kansas this year and are 28-2 against everyone else. In other words, they've handled every non-elite team on their schedule this year but struggled with the big boys.

I think Baylor might be the best "very good team" in the country. I just don't see them as an elite squad this year.

5. North Carolina Tar Heels

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 5 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 10%

Analysis: North Carolina's championship aspirations are pretty simple.

If Kendall Marshall is completely healthy, I would have put their championship percentage at 19 percent. But if the country's best pure point guard—and the cog that makes the high-powered North Carolina offense run so effectively—is out for the remainder of the tournament or is severely limited, the Tar Heels' championship hopes take a giant hit.

If Marshall is able to play at a high level, the Tar Heels' chances rise significantly.

4. Ohio State Buckeyes

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 7 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 15%

Analysis: Ohio State has only one real weakness, which Michigan State exposed in the Big Ten championship game: They can rely too much on the individual efforts of Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas and William Buford to score instead of beating teams with a fluid team offense.

Then again, when you have those three players, that isn't such a bad problem to have. Ohio State has the ability to win a national championship this year.

3. Kansas Jayhawks

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 10 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 15%

Analysis: With Ohio, NC State and a now-weakened North Carolina squad standing in their way, the Jayhawks now have an easier path to the Final Four then they could have anticipated coming into the tournament.

They are excellent on the block with big bodies in Thomas Robinson (Player of the Year candidate) and the much-improved Jeff Withey. Senior guard Tyshawn Taylor (17.3 PPG, 4.8 APG) is a stud. The Jayhawks are extremely efficient offensively (75.0 PPG, 15.6 APG, 48.5 field-goal percentage).

Rock Chalk Jayhawk is not to be underestimated.

2. Michigan State Spartans

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 8 to 1

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 15%

Analysis: Michigan State was the best team in the country's best conference this year, have a true team leader they can ride in Draymond Green, play good defense, are balanced offensively and rebound well. They are led by Tom Izzo, who always seems to have the Spartans peaking this time of year.

Michigan State is legit.

1. Kentucky Wildcats

Vegas Insider Odds of Championship Before Tourney: 8 to 5

Percentage Chance I Now Give Them to Win Tournament: 20%

Analysis: If Kentucky plays its A-game, the Wildcats can't be beaten, especially with Kendall Marshall's injury weakening the Tar Heels.

If they don't put up a stinker somewhere along the line, they will win the national championship.

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