Liverpool V Stoke: 10 Bold Predictions for FA Cup Quarterfinal

Liverpool meets Stoke City at Anfield on Sunday as both teams vie for a semi-final spot in the FA Cup. Both teams have been largely inconsistent this season, with Liverpool commanding a lion's share of the headlines both on and off the field.  

Stoke are seeking to salvage something positive from what has otherwise been a lost season for Tony Pulis and his charges.  Here, then, are 10 bold predictions for the quarterfinal match-up. 

Thomas Sorensen over Asmir Begovich

It's not much of a shocker, so I'm not sure how 'bold' a move this is, but Thomas Sorensen will get the start in goal ahead of Asmir Begovich.  It's not really a "prediction" either, since Pulis has confirmed the move himself.  

Even had he not said it, it would have still been a fairly predictable move as this has been his practice the past several seasons.  Still, it is an indication perhaps of how seriously (or not) the respective teams are taking this fixture, as Kenny Dalglish is sure to field his first team players. 

Kenwyne Jones to feature

Peter Crouch will get the start, but look for Kenwyne Jones to get a fair share of the action in the absence of the suspended Ricardo Fuller.  

The enigmatic Trinidadian striker has only one goal from 18 shots in 17 matches this season and seems to have found himself firmly ensconced in Pulis' doghouse.  Still, look for Stoke to try to take advantage of Liverpool's makeshift back line, which likely will be without regulars, Glen Johnson and Daniel Agger.  

Jones' physical  presence and aerial ability should challenge the central pairing of Jamie Carragher and Martin Skrtel, but it all depend on which player shows up in the Stoke No. 9 shirt.  A motivated Jones at his best is a handful for any Premier League defender.  

The Jones of the past several seasons by contrast has been distracted, adrift and seemingly disinterested, hence his current standing with the manager. 

Stoke Will Park the Defensive Bus

Stoke has not won at Anfield in 53 years  and Tony Pulis is aware that  Stoke will yet again be at a disadvantage.  That being so, Pulis will likely field a defensive-minded squad with former Red Peter Crouch likely up top by himself.  

The Britannia is a formidable place for a visiting team and at home Stoke can rely on a bit of home cooking (more on that in a later slide) to tilt the odds in their favor. Their road performance in the Premier League this season suggests that they are half the team they are at home or, put another way, statistically they are twice as poor.  

Pulis' men have played an equal number of Premier League games at home and away this season (14 games apiece going into the weekend), but whereas stoke has lost only four PL games at home, they have eight losses on the road.  

They have scored 18 goals at home, half as many on the road (9 goals), while giving up 14 goals at home, and almost double that (25) on the road. Given their challenges away, expect Pulis to try to limit Liverpool's chances by limiting possession.  

Expect a crowded five-man middle with four at the back and Crouch alone up top.  Pulis' squad will rely on their traditional dominance on set pieces, particularly into the box (an area where Liverpool has struggled this season, and indeed, the past several seasons).

If that fails, then he can at least count on the away supporters to be in full voice—Stoke has sold out its allotment of tickets for the fixture, pricing them at only £20, with owner Peter Coates subsidizing the difference.

Liverpool Will Go for the Win

Look for Liverpool  to take the opposite approach and go for the win in front of the home crowd.  Sitting in seventh place in the League, ten points adrift of fourth-place Arsenal, Dalglish realizes that his best bet would be for a domestic Cup double and, as such, will field strong squads from here on out.

Look for the starting eleven to feature:

 Pepe Reina

 Martin Kelly- Jamie Carragher- Martin Skrtel- Jose Enrique

 Dirk Kuyt- Steven Gerrard- Jordan Henderson- Craig Bellamy

 Luis  Suárez - Andy Carroll

Suárez and Carroll have shown in recent games that they are developing an understanding of each other's game. While Suárez has had a disappointing scoring season, he did net twice in the Carling Cup victory over Stoke earlier this season, and set up two of Gerrard's goals against Everton.

Expect to see more of his tantalizing brilliance on display against Stoke.

Stewart Downing's inconsistency and Charlie Adam's defensive regression in midfield will likely see them on the bench at kickoff.  Stoke's aerial prowess may neutralize threats from crosses in to Carroll, and so Bellamy's trickery on the ball gives him the starting nod.  

His creaky knees are another matter; however, so look for Downing to come on for him at about the hour mark on Sunday.  

No clean sheets on Sunday

Stoke's record on the road the past five games stands at one win, one draw and three losses, having scored three goals and conceded seven.

Liverpool, by contrast, suffered their first home defeat two games ago versus Arsenal, but managed to secure only two wins, with two draws over that span.  The team has scored Stoke's tally in reverse—seven goals scored versus three conceded.  

Advantage Liverpool then?

Yes, but not a clear advantage as one would think.  In their last five League fixtures (both home and away) Liverpool have conceded 5 goals, three of which have come since Daniel Agger suffered fractured ribs in the Carling Cup final.  

Since then, Glen Johnson has also been lost to injury, and while Kelly is an able substitute, the cohesiveness of the back four has been compromised by the pair of injuries, leaving the defensive right side particularly vulnerable.

Liverpool must guard against fouls anywhere near the box, and be vigilant against the inevitable long throws into the box.  Still, given Liverpool's vulnerability to defending set pieces in the box even at full strength, expect Stoke to score at least one goal on Sunday.

Suárez will score a goal

Goals have been hard to come by this season for Luis Suárez, but that's not to say that he has been without his chances.  

He has created opportunities both for himself and for his teammates, but a peculiar malady has infected the side such that profligacy in front of goal has been a squad-wide failing, with seemingly each first-team regular being complicit.

Expect Suárez to be a particular thorn in the side of the Stoke defenders, whom he has bedeviled in the past.  Their's is more of a physical game and tricky players such as Liverpool's Uruguayan international has given them problems.  

Suárez himself has proven this to be true, scoring a memorable brace when the teams met in the Carling Cup back in January.  He will factor in the scoring both indirectly and directly, by scoring himself.

Steven Gerrard Will Score a Goal

Stoke's defense is formidable, but there will be opportunities for Liverpool.  First team goalkeeper Asmir Begovich will be on the bench for this fixture, and former starter, Thomas Sorensen will start in his place.  

From my layman's perspective there isn't much of a drop-off as one goes from Begovich to Sorensen, but evidently Pulis has a reason for relegating Sorensen to the bench.  Whatever that reason, it factors in Liverpool's favor that they will be facing a backup goaltender and they must take their chances.

Gerrard is quite capable of putting the ball in the back of the net from virtually anywhere in the opposing half.  Look for him though to score via the penalty spot, likely the beneficiary of a Stoke foul on Suárez inside the box.

Referee Kevin Friend Will Be Busy

Liverpool ranks sixth and Stoke 12th on the Barclays Premier League Fair Play table, which, all things considered, is not a bad showing by either club.  

Liverpool averages 1.2 yellow cards per game and Stoke 1.4, but where physical play meets finesse the referee may be inclined to call the game a bit closer than between two teams of similar physical styles.

Referee, Kevin Friend dispenses an average of four yellow cards per game, supporting the notion that this will be a closely-officiated game.

There Will Be No Controversy

Despite his propensity for player discipline, don't expect for there to be any controversial calls in this fixture.  Friend is, in the opinion of this writer, one of the better officials in the Premier League and one not likely to fall for shenanigans on the field.  

This includes play inside the box as well, the customary pushing and shoving on corner kicks will be the same (an issue which needs to be addressed by the FA), but aside from that, should a penalty be awarded it more likely than not will be a legitimate call.

Liverpool Will Win 2-1

As touched on earlier, the Britannia is a formidable place for opposing teams, in part due to the intimidating, vibrant atmosphere created by the Potter crowd.  

Other factors have been Stoke's creative manipulation of the field dimensions (within the flexible guidelines of both FIFA and FA regulations), and used to particular effect during Liverpool's first visit to the Britannia back in September.

The pitch was visibly smaller than even regular Britannia configurations, seemingly two feet narrower along both touch lines, and a full five feet shorter on both goal lines.  

This provides Stoke a competitive advantage on two fronts: first it plays to Stokes strength on the long throw-ins into the box, which is a staple of their aerial game.  To this end, Stoke has been warned over their use of towels to dry the ball before throw-ins at home.  

The use of towels themselves is not an issue, but Stoke declines to provide the items for use by visitors, thereby contributing to the club's competitive advantage at home. 

Second, against a passing team like Liverpool, which prefers to systematically make its way through midfield, the narrower confines creates congestion in the passing lanes, and reduces the spacing necessary for efficient deployment of Liverpool's preferred "pass and move" style of play.  

At visiting stadia, this advantage is negated by a wider pitch and more free-flowing midfield game. Liverpool would be wise to use this to their advantage, and look for Suárez and Gerrard to score as noted previously, in a 2-1 victory.