NCAA Scores 2012: Indiana's Offensive Prowess Will Be Too Much for VCU

The Virginia Commonwealth Rams are a popular upset in today's matchup with the Indiana Hoosiers, but everyone seems to be forgetting about Indiana's offense.

VCU, behind Shaka Smart's chaos defense, made a brilliant run to the Final 4 last year, and have already pulled an upset this year. 

Everyone is convinced that no matter who he has playing for him, Smart will consistently make deep tournament runs. The talented coach certainly deserves high praise, but it might be starting to get out of control.

First of all, Indiana enjoys a faster pace. They can certainly play in the half-court—as they oftentimes had to in the Big Ten—but their 66.8 possessions per 40 minutes (second in the conference) shows they enjoy pushing the pace. 

VCU, with its full-court pressure for 40 minutes, will certainly allow the pace to be quickened.

That only benefits the Hoosiers.

Second, the Rams are most successful when playing teams that aren't as good on the offensive end. Wichita State was successful this season largely because of its defense, but it just couldn't handle VCU when it was on offense.

Indiana, however, won't be phased by VCU's biggest strength.

The Hoosiers shoot 43.6 percent from deep (second best in the country), score 1.16 points per possession (fourth best), and average 77.3 points per game (16th best). VCU's chaos defense may work against inferior offenses, but Indiana has one of the best offenses in the entire country.

Essentially, when Indiana has the ball, it will be strength versus strength. Don't automatically assume VCU will control the game because of its famous pressure. 

Every time the Hoosiers beat that pressure, they won't have to work to find an open shot, and as their stats show, they know how to knock down the open shot.

What's more, VCU is much less experienced, and much worse, on the offensive end than last year's team. They may be a popular upset pick, but people are living too much in the past.

The Rams looked very impressive against Wichita State, don't get me wrong. But this is a team that will fall against a superior opponent.