Projecting the Field of 65: Jan. 14

Teams are about a quarter of the way through their conference schedules, and so now is the perfect time to reveal the very first Schwach Indicator standings.  How will this new assessment tool affect the bracket picture as we are now just 60 days away from Selection Sunday?

As always, I like to break teams down into three categories.  "Wallflowers" are bubble teams.  Everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.  Elite teams are safely in the field, "Dancing with a hottie," and in the middle are the schools that are "Dancing with their sisters."


ACC

Dancing with a hottie: Duke (1 seed), Wake Forest (1), No. Carolina (2), Clemson (3)

Dancing with their sisters: Miami (7)

Wallflowers: Florida St. (9), Maryland (11), Boston College (12), Virginia Tech (out)

I am now convinced that no team from a major conference will ever again go undefeated.  Carolina’s recent losses to Boston College and Wake Forest drop the Heels to a two seed, while the Deacons move all the way up to the top line. 

Maryland’s shocking home loss to Morgan State devastated the Terps’ RPI, as it dropped to 67, which also severely damages their seed.  Boston College went from not in the field to a seven seed after winning at Chapel Hill.  Then the Eagles lost back-to-back home games to HARVARD!! and Miami to drop all the way down to my last team in.

A win at No. 1 UNC isn’t an automatic ticket to the Dance.  Maryland (18-14, 8-8) did the exact same thing last year and wound up in the NIT.

Big East

Dancing with a hottie: Pittsburgh (1), UConn (2), Syracuse (2), Georgetown (3), Marquette (4), Notre Dame (4)

Dancing with their sisters: Louisville (5), Villanova (8)

Wallflowers: West Virginia (10), Providence (out)

Marquette had a solid week with a win at Rutgers and a 22-point dismantling of West Virginia at home.  With seven straight victories and an RPI of 18, the Golden Eagles are now a four seed. 

Louisville was the last D-I team to play a game this season, so I guess I can’t blame the Cardinals for being a little slow to realize it was time to get going.  After starting 8-3, they’ve now won four in a row, including victories at Villanova and at home against Notre Dame to return to a respectable seed.

West Virginia is headed in the opposite direction with back-to-back losses to UConn and Marquette.

Big Ten

Dancing with a hottie: Michigan State (2)

Dancing with their sister: Minnesota (5), Illinois (6), Purdue (6), Wisconsin (6), Michigan (8), Ohio State (8)

Wallflowers: Penn State (out), Northwestern (out), Iowa (out)

My buddy and fellow Schwach Indicator creator, Brad Wachtel, put it best in his Facts & Backs column this week, where he wrote that Michigan State is the clear favorite in the Big Ten right now with a large group all muddled right behind.

Ohio State better get rolling again.  After a 9-0 start, the Buckeyes have dropped three of five and haven’t beaten a real NCAA contender since Butler back on Dec. 13.

Big XII

Dancing with a hottie: Oklahoma (1), Texas (4)

Wallflowers: Kansas (8), Oklahoma State (10), Baylor (11), Missouri (out), Texas A&M (out)

Oklahoma is back to a top seed after beating Texas and climbing to fifth in the RPI.  The Sooners are 4-0 against the top 50 and 9-1 versus the top 100.  UConn, which I now have as the best two seed, is 4-1 vs. the top 50 and 6-1 against the top 100.

Oklahoma State is in the field for the first time this season after beating Texas A&M for its seventh straight win.  The Cowboys (12-3) are 19th in the RPI, have the 22nd-best strength of schedule, and have only lost to NCAA probables.

Missouri and Texas A&M both suffered harmful losses this week and are now my first two teams out.  The Tigers fell at Nebraska, and A&M lost the aforementioned OSU game. The Aggies’ SOS is 177, and they don’t have a win over the top 57 in the RPI. Wins over Kent St., Arizona, Alabama, and LSU are nice, but none of those teams appear to be going to the tournament, and that loss to Tulsa doesn’t help matters.

Pac-10

Dancing with a hottie: UCLA (3)

Dancing with their sister: Arizona State (5), California (5)

Wallflowers: Washington (10), Stanford (out), USC (out), Arizona (out)

Arizona State and Cal are each quietly putting together nice seasons.  ASU has won 10 of its past 11, with the only loss coming to the Bears.  California, meanwhile, has won nine in a row, including a huge triple overtime victory at Washington.

Speaking of the Huskies, it took that three OT contest to snap their nine-game win streak, which included victories over Oklahoma State and Stanford.  That loss was a bad one for the Cardinal, which has now dropped three of four to fall from the field.

SEC

Dancing with their sister: Tennessee (7)

Wallflowers: Florida (9), Kentucky (9), Arkansas (11)

Wow, the SEC is bad this year.  No teams in the top 25, and their best shot this March is a seven seed right now.  Arkansas finally ran out of steam after beating Oklahoma and Texas, which resulted in a 14-point home loss to Mississippi State. 

Kentucky is my second-to-last team in because they have a slightly better profile than fellow Wallflowers like Texas A&M.  UK has a better SOS than A&M and at least has wins over teams that will be in the field (West Virginia and Tennessee).  All four of the Wildcats’ losses have come against tourney teams (even VMI), and we have to see Jodie Meeks try to go for 54 again this March.

Mid-Majors

Dancing with a hottie: Butler (3), Xavier (4)

Dancing with their sister: Memphis (6), Gonzaga (7), Saint Mary’s (7)

Wallflowers: Davidson (9), Dayton (10), UNLV (11), BYU (12), Illinois State (12), Creighton (out), UAB (out), San Diego State (out), Utah (out), Rhode Island (out), Temple (out), Evansville (out), Boise State (out)

That’s right—I have Butler as a three seed.  The Bulldogs are 13-1 and possess the No. 4 RPI in the nation.  They’re 3-1 vs. the top 50, 7-1 vs. the top 100, have won at Xavier and Cleveland State, and are only a three-point loss at Ohio State away from perfection.

BYU’s loss to Wake looks a lot better after the Deacons took down North Carolina.  I have Illinois State in as an automatic bid from the Valley right now, but I don’t think they’d make it as an at-large.  After starting 14-0, the Redbirds have dropped their last two at Bradley and Indiana State and have exactly zero big non-conference wins to balance those losses.



Automatic Bids

Siena, Utah State, George Mason, Western Kentucky, Miami-Ohio, Binghamton, Lamar, Long Beach State, Portland State, Cornell, VMI, Austin Peay, American, North Dakota State, East Tennessee State, Robert Morris, Morgan State, Alabama State

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]