Will Florida Repeat?

As a lifelong Gator fan growing up in western Pennsylvania, this is a question that I’ve often been asked in the last week. Not that anyone particularly cares, I assume they just ask because it is a good conversation starter and something I enjoy chiming in on.

Now right after the National Championship and the following few weeks are when you see most analysts and “experts” weigh in on next year’s winner. It’s like a get out of jail free card. People will listen to your predictions and since it is so far away no one will remember if you are wrong. So I’m going to take this chance to break down Florida’s chances of repeating.

Let’s start with the obvious reason why teams generally don’t repeat, graduation and early entrees to the NFL. Senior linemen Jim Tartt, Phil Trautwein, and Jason Watkins are gone along with WR Louis Murphy. Senior back-up running back/fullback Kestahn Moore also graduates. The NCAA recently denied kicker Jonathan Phillips another year of eligibility so he will have to be replaced.

Well now that that’s over….wait is that it? Well yeah it is. A lot of talk following the game was whether or not Tim Tebow would return for his senior season. He wasted no time in announcing he would return but the futures of WR/RB Percy Harvin and MLB Brandon Spikes are still uncertain. All signs point to Brandon Spikes leaving since he still hasn’t returned from visiting family in Miami following the game and classes started this week.

However, Percy Harvin was apparently spotted on campus sporting a book bag. This is a good sign for Gator fans everywhere because if Percy is attending classes then in all likelihood he will be returning for his senior season.

The offensive line should be fine despite the losses. The Pouncey twins are back along with Carl Johnson and Marcus Gilbert, both of whom got a significant amount of playing time due to injuries through the course of the year. Tebow is back along with RB’s Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps, and Emmanuel Moody. Deonte Thompson should step into Louis Murphy’s position as the primary outside receiver.

Seldom used Carl Moore, Championship game hero David Nelson, and Riley Cooper should battle for the other receiver spots. Look for incoming freshman Nu’Keese Richardson to be the dark horse to take over the slot position should Harvin declare for the NLF after all.

The defensive side of the ball, which was a glaring weakness for the Gators two years ago, and surprise strength this year will return 21 out of the 22 players in the two deep counting Spikes leaving. That is an amazing number coming from a championship team. Not only were all the starters underclassmen, but also so were all their back-ups.

It is hard to say that the Gator defense won’t miss a beat next year without Spikes who was not only the best player on the defense, but also the emotional leader as well. Senior to be Ryan Stamper will fill both of these roles for the Gators in 2009 and should be a fine fit. Urban Meyer named stamper a captain this year and he wasn’t even a starter. This is a testament to what Stamper brings to the table off the field along with playing spot duty at all three linebacker positions.

The front four will remain intact with Carlos Dunlap and Jermaine Cunningham on the outside, while a rotation of Justin Trattou, Torrey Davis, Terron Sanders, and Matt Patchan on the inside. Look for AJ Jones, John Jones, and Lorenzo Edwards to compete for the Will linebacker position alongside Stamper and Sam linebacker Dustin Doe. The secondary, which had a major turnaround in 2008, remains the same.

Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden will hold down the corner positions with Major Wright and Ahmed Black at the safety position. Look for Florida to utilize the athletic Will Hill in more of a hybrid role. I think he’ll end up playing some nickel corner, some corner in the cover two scheme, and also spell Black or Wright from time to time.

Punter Chaz Henry and kickoff specialist Caleb Sturgis are back however long snapper James Smith and special teams well, specialist Butch Rowley will have to be replaced.

Florida plays one of its weakest schedules in recent memory next year starting with the out of conference slate. Out are Hawaii, Miami, and The Citadel. In come Charleston Southern, Troy, and Florida International. Florida plays only four true road games, @ Kentucky, @ LSU, @ Mississippi State, and @ South Carolina.

Home games include Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Florida International, and Florida State with the annual showdown against Georgia in Jacksonville. This is a very manageable schedule for the Gators and it seems like their main competition next year could be themselves.

Florida will be favored in every single game they play next year that I know. So it is up to Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer and the rest of the gang to stay motivated each week. You saw what the Gators did after the Ole Miss loss. Now the task is going to be keeping that focus from the beginning of the year until the end without the loss to motivate them.

The Gators were able to do it in basketball a few years ago and I’m predicting they’ll do it again. Their defense is too strong for teams to score enough to keep up with their dynamic offense and Tebow will be hungry for another Heisman trophy.

They’ll do what no team has done since USC years ago and go wire to wire as the number one team and will play...OHIO STATE in the National Championship game—write it down. On second thought, maybe you shouldn’t.