NCAA Tournament 2012: 4 Reasons Syracuse Is Doomed for Quick Exit from Big Dance

Never in NCAA tournament history has a No. 16 seed upset a No. 1 seed.

It nearly happened on Thursday. UNC-Asheville took the top-seeded Syracuse Orange to the brink in their Round of 64 matchup, ultimately falling short by the final of 72-65. If you saw the game, you'll know that the refs didn't do the Bulldogs any favors.

The other thing you'll know if you saw the game is that this Syracuse team is very vulnerable. If the Orange play like they did against UNC-Asheville, they're not going to be long for the Big Dance.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Orange are already doomed. Here are a few reasons why.

Fab Melo's Absence Is a Problem

We knew this was going to be the case as soon as it was announced that Melo would not be participating in the Big Dance due to an eligibility issue. What we found out on Thursday is how much of a problem Melo's absence really is.

In particular, Melo's absence was felt on the defensive boards. Syracuse is not an elite rebounding team, but it's a team that should have dominated the undersized Bulldogs on the boards. Despite the great work they did on the offensive glass, the Orange barely managed to out-rebound UNC-Asheville.

Had Melo actually been able to play against UNC-Asheville, the game would not have been close. The Orange would have been able to dominate the boards on both ends, and his presence in the paint likely would have led the Orange to settle for far fewer threes.

And that leads us to the next point.

Where Will the Offense Come From?

Offense, particularly in the halfcourt, has been an issue for Syracuse all season long. The Orange are great when they can get out in transition, but they lack go-to scorers when the game slows down.

We saw this problem come to life against the Bulldogs. Syracuse had trouble creating open shots, and a lot of its possessions ended up with totally unnecessary three-point attempts.

In all, Syracuse took 23 three-pointers. It made five of them.

Since UNC-Asheville is not a good defensive team, Syracuse was able to get away with bad offense. Against a better defensive team (they're out there), Syracuse will not be able to get away with it.

Their Luck's Not Going to Hold

The Orange couldn't have won Thursday's game without the refs.

All told, Syracuse benefited from a key non-goaltending call, a ridiculous lane violation call and a baffling call on an inbounds play that should have given UNC-Asheville the ball with a chance to tie the game.

Take away these calls, and the Bulldogs likely come much closer to actually upsetting Syracuse, and they may have actually gotten the job done.

Unless the fix is in, Syracuse is not going to get that lucky again. 

Competition's Going to Get Stiffer

Keep in mind that all of Syracuse's struggles on Thursday came against a No. 16 seed. Against a better team, Syracuse would not have walked away with a win.

And make no mistake about it, the teams are only going to get better from here on out. It will start with Kansas State in the Round of 32. If Syracuse survives the Wildcats, it could be looking at a matchup against Vanderbilt or Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.

To keep advancing, the Orange will have to keep getting lucky, and they're going to have to play much sharper as a unit. 

Good luck with that.