Mid-Major Madness: Looking To Avoid a Stressful Selection Sunday

It happens every season.

A mid-major school tears through their conference schedule, has a nice non-conference win or two, but has a slip up in their conference tourney. The team that felt comfortable all season is suddenly sweating it out on selection Sunday. 

The following mid-majors already have a foot in the door to the dance, even if they run into a speed bump in their conference tournaments:

Gonzaga

The Bulldogs are a perennial NCAA tournament team, and Mark Few has built a big-time program in what is a mid-major conference.  Barring a complete meltdown in West Coast Conference play, Gonzaga should feel comfortable about their tourney chances. 

Non-conference wins against Oklahoma State, Maryland, Washington State, and Tennessee (twice) look good on the Bulldogs' resume.  Don’t be surprised if they drop a few games during conference play in what is a competitive West Coast Conference. 

St. Mary’s

Another dangerous WCC team, St. Mary’s gets set to dive into their conference schedule.  Sporting a No. 25 Coaches Poll ranking, the Gaels have an impressive 15-1 record. 

Unlike Gonzaga, however, outside of a win against Providence, St. Mary's doesn’t have any impressive non-conference wins to hang their hat on.  That being said, a strong run through the WCC should get the Gaels in, but it may mean they have to beat Gonzaga in one of their showdown games later in the season. 

Davidson

The darlings of last year’s dance look to make an encore appearance this March.  The Wildcats have not lost a Southern Conference game in almost two full calendar years. Having already defeated the College of Charleston on the road, Davidson is well on their way to continuing their dominance of the Southern Conference. 

Lost in all the love for Stephen Curry and the Cats, is that Davidson has only one solid non-conference win—their defeat of West Virginia at Madison Square Garden. But Davidson does get credit for keeping it close with Oklahoma and Duke on the road. 

Look for the Wildcats make the tournament, even if they lose in the SoCon tourney,  due their willingness to play anyone, anywhere, and the nation’s love for Curry.

Siena

The Saints are off to a quick start in the Metro Atlantic, already recording six conference wins.  Assuming Siena can keep this pace through conference play, they could book an at-large spot in the dance if they can’t close the deal in the conference tournament.  Expect Siena to have a high RPI come March if they continue to tear through the MAAC. 

The foundation of this high RPI is built on a tough non-conference schedule with losses to Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Pitt, and Kansas.  Had the Saints sealed the deal against one of the big boys they played in the non-conference portion of their schedule, they could have been set for a less stressful selection Sunday. 

Butler

Perhaps the team with the best shot at securing an automatic bid without needing to win their conference tournament is the Butler Bulldogs.  Ranked No. 18 in this week’s Coaches Poll, the Bulldogs have started out 14-1 overall, and 5-0 in the Horizon League. 

Butler’s resume is highlighted by a big time win over No. 16 Xavier.  The Bulldogs’ lone blemish is a close loss against Ohio State in Columbus.  With a less-than-demanding conference schedule ahead, look for Butler to rack up an impressive win total and a decent seed come tournament time. 

While the above schools can maintain March Madness hopes even if they don't get an automatic bid, these schools have started out well, but need to either dominate their conference schedule or win their conference tournament to make the big dance:

Cleveland State

The Vikings recorded a remarkable win against Syracuse during the non-conference portion of the schedule, and lost some respectable non-conference games to West Virginia and Washington.  However, losses to Wright State and Kansas State may hurt the Vikings’ RPI unless they reel off some big wins in the Horizon.

Illinois State

Had I written this last week, the Redbirds would have been in the first grouping. After a loss to Bradley, and an embarrassment against Indiana State, an immediate rebound is necessary for Illinois State to regain confidence for the rest of their conference schedule. 

Evansville

The Aces tough non-conference schedule will help their RPI at the end of the season, but Evansville must take care of business the rest of the way in the always competitive Missouri Valley Conference to book a spot in the tournament. 

George Mason

The ultimate bracket buster hopes to make it back to March Madness again this season, but will be battling fellow CAA conference member VCU for may be the only bid for the conference.  At this point, George Mason is the only school with a chance to secure an at-large bid, but they can ill afford many more slip-ups the rest of the season. 

College of Charleston

Without a bad loss in the non-conference portion of the schedule, the Cougars have set themselves up well entering conference play.  However, due to a weak conference, the College of Charleston will probably have to dethrone Davidson to make the big dance.