2012 NFL Mock Draft: Forecasting How History Will View Each Pick

With free agency underway (and boy is it ever) it's time to start making some adjustments to the old mock draft.

We've got the Washington Redskins moving up to the second pick. The Cleveland Browns (allegedly) sticking with Colt McCoy and saying goodbye to Peyton Hillis, who heads to Kansas City. The Chicago Bears traded some magic beans to Miami for troubled wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon all signed fat contracts while the Redskins collected tons of second- and third-tier receivers.

Meanwhile, Brandon Lloyd was last seen on the side of a highway in New England with a "will catch balls for Super Bowl ring" sign.

Oh, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers apparently thought they should start throwing Scrooge McDuck money around.

So while you wait for Peyton Manning to land somewhere (Denver! Tennessee! Denver! Tennessee! Miami? Denver!), here's today's mock draft. The twist this week is my thoughts on how each pick in the first will do in his NFL career.

Crystal ball: Activated!

1. Indianapolis Colts—Andrew Luck, QB

I love everything I have seen in Luck, but he's likely to struggle his first year. It's good to see Reggie Wayne come back and they may yet add some more elements to it via free agency, but they're still in rebuilding mode. There's only so much that can be done.

After a rough year or two, Luck will show his mettle and come through the other side a very good NFL quarterback.

2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis)—Robert Griffin III, QB

Like Luck, Griffin arrives on a team that has some work to do. The Redskins added several wide receivers but not even Pierre Garcon is that spectacular. They still have some work to do offensively but the defense should keep it close. RG3's rookie season will look better than Luck's because he's got the defense to keep it close. Long term, I expect Griffin to be very good.

3. Minnesota Vikings—Matt Kalil, OT

Kalil is going to be a man alone on an island for the most part, but he'll be fine. I expect him to have a long career as an excellent left tackle. If the Vikings can do a good job building around him, he'll be the foundation for a great offensive line for a long, long time.

4. Cleveland Browns—Trent Richardson, RB

Short term, he'll have Browns fans saying, "Hillis who?" while long term he could have fantasy football owners saying, "Adrian who?" He's that good and could do a ton for the Browns from day one. I expect a long and productive NFL life for Mr. Richardson.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Morris Claiborne, CB

I almost pulled this off the board when the Bucs signed Eric Wright to a five-year, $37.5 million contract but Ronde Barber is still mulling retirement and Aqib Talib is bereft of common sense. On top of it, Wright has a penchant for getting burned long. So if Claiborne is here—and I can't imagine he won't be—he should be the pick.

I love what I've seen in Claiborne and he should be a huge cornerstone of this secondary in a division that loves to pass.

6. St. Louis Rams—Justin Blackmon, WR

Blackmon is definitely a person of interest for the Rams, and I don't believe he goes before this spot as I just don't see the Browns being in love with him. The question becomes, how much do you buy Blackmon?

I happen to believe in him enough to say he should very quickly become a favorite of quarterback Sam Bradford's but may struggle initially due to a lack of much across from him to pull coverage. Long term he'll be a very good—though not great or elite—wide receiver.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars—Fletcher Cox, DT

Cox can can play the three technique and will be key in getting behind the line of scrimmage and disrupting plays. He's going to step right in and have a big impact for this defense and will continue to do so for a long time.

8. Miami Dolphins—Michael Floyd, WR

I'm not Floyd's biggest fan but I liked what I saw at the combine in terms of taking responsibility for his alcohol issues and he's grown on me a lot on film. I don't love the options at quarterback for him, though, and that includes Matt Flynn, Matt Moore or a potentially cut Kevin Kolb.

So expect a long, dry season for him as a rookie, which will continue until Miami figures out its quarterback issues. He could languish there until his rookie contract is up and find a second life elsewhere. Ultimately, if given the opportunity with a decent quarterback, Floyd will be a very good wide receiver.

9. Carolina Panthers—Michael Brockers, DT

Brockers has a little game-maturing to do so he might be slow to start off, but it won't take long before he becomes a real force on the defensive line.

10. Buffalo Bills—Riley Reiff, OT

The Bills will throw Reiff into the fire quickly and where he goes—left or right tackle—to start will tell the tale for his success. He's going to take a little time before he's ready to totally take over and the team and fans will have to be patient with him.

11. Kansas City Chiefs—Jonathan Martin, OT

Martin should be a huge upgrade at right tackle and just based on that his rookie season should be a success. Longer term he has the upside to eventually move to left tackle.

12. Seattle Seahawks—Quinton Coples, DE

People seem to either love or hate Coples—he's this year's biggest "boom or bust" candidate. Count me amongst his believers. He'll step right into this defensive line, either at tackle or end, and will have a huge impact early. This could be a very dangerous defense next year.

13. Arizona Cardinals—Dontari Poe, DT

The Cardinals need help all over, and with a huge combine Poe may go even earlier than this. I suspect that early on he'll struggle—his tape is good but not great and that's always the biggest indicator. However, after a while I expect he will catch up and his physical talents will take over. Expect the Cardinals to be very happy with this pick for many seasons to come.

14. Dallas Cowboys—Melvin Ingram, OLB

Across from DeMarcus Ware, Ingram could put up huge rookie numbers and that would just be the beginning.

15. Philadelphia Eagles—Luke Kuechly, ILB

Inside linebackers are often unsung heroes, so you may not hear much about Kuechly his first few years. People in the NFL will know his name, though, and in short order, he should be someone they keep a very close eye on.

16. New York Jets—Courtney Upshaw, OLB

The Jets could move Upshaw all over the place and create a lot of mismatches for offenses. They've needed a pass-rusher for a long time and in this defense, Upshaw could step right in and cause havoc. He'll be one of the best picks this Jets franchise has made in years.

17.Cincinnati Bengals—Dre Kirkpatrick, CB/S

This could change a bit this weekend as the Bengals pull in free-agent defensive backs, but if not Kirkpatrick's stock has risen to the point where he could go this early. As either a safety or cornerback, Kirkpatrick would be tested quite a bit his first year. It would take some time, but he will develop into a very solid player for the Bengals.

18. San Diego Chargers—David DeCastro, OG

The Chargers can sign all the free agents they want and still make a case for DeCastro, the best guard in the draft. I could see DeCastro struggling a bit his first year in part because the line has so many issues but he'd eventually emerge as a great guard who can help anchor the offensive line and try to save Philip Rivers from getting clobbered.

19. Chicago Bears—Mike Adams, OT

The Bears have to improve this offensive line and Adams can step right in at tight tackle. While not as good as the first tier of offensive linemen, Adams is very good and would become a great asset to a line that definitely needs help.

20. Tennessee Titans—Nick Perry, DE

Perry has made it clear he isn't comfortable changing to linebacker, which limits the teams looking at him. The Titans need some pressure off the edge, though, and Perry can bring it. His size is a bit of a concern and could trip him up, though. I believe he'll be an OK defensive end, but I doubt he will ever be quite worth the pick.

21. Cincinnati Bengals—Lamar Miller, RB

Another spot that can be altered during the rest of free agency, the running back position is a big concern for Cincy. Miller can do it all—run between the tackles, break off a long scamper, catch the ball, block—which will keep him on the field for three downs. He should be very successful in this offense, especially since defenses have to respect A.J. Green.

22. Cleveland Browns—Kendall Wright, WR

One of the reasons I didn't have Blackmon go to the Browns early is because there are some very good wide receivers available here. Wright is a baller, and paired with Greg Little he could step right in and form the basis of a very good receiving corps for a long time.

23. Detroit Lions—Dont'a Hightower, ILB

If Stephen Tulloch leaves (and it looks very possible) the Lions need someone other than a shifting DeAndre Levy to fill in at middle linebacker. In this defense, with the line he has in front of him, Hightower would be very effective in short order. 

24. Pittsburgh Steelers—Cordy Glenn, OG

The Steelers need help on the offensive line, so going with a guard to help out Maurkice Pouncey is just logical. It will be rough going for Glenn at times, but he's good enough to improve things on the O-line and should lock a guard position down for a long time.

25. Denver Broncos—Jerel Worthy, DT

The Broncos are slowly putting together a heck of a defensive front and Worthy is a perfect fit. He'd be a lock for a big rookie season, clogging the middle up and run stuffing like a beast.

26.Houston Texans—Rueben Randle, WR

Unless Andre Johnson went down with another injury, I'd expect a quite rookie year for Randle but eventually he would emerge as a big-time wide receiver. Starting out he'd be the No. 3 behind Johnson and Kevin Walter, which will keep first year numbers down, though.

27. New England Patriots—Whitney Mercilus, DE

You might not see his name a ton, but he'd have a very positive impact from day one in this defense, which is sorely in need of help at the defensive end spot where everyone is getting old. He might be rotated in at first, but he'd be a starter by the end of the year. After that, we'd hear his name a lot.

28. Green Bay Packers—Andre Branch, DE

Branch wouldn't have a big impact immediately as he might be a bit buried on the depth chart, but with names like Ryan Pickett, Mike Neal and C.J. Wilson in front of him I expect he'd be a starter by 2013 and in for a lot of snaps as this coming season wears on.

29. Baltimore Ravens—Peter Konz, C/OL

Benn Grubbs is as good as gone and who knows if Matt Birk will re-sign. The Ravens need offensive line help and Konz can play almost anywhere on the line. If he just needs to step in for Grubbs he should have an effective rookie season. Center would be more problematic, but he's good enough to hold the fort. Hopefully it won't come to that right away and he'll have time to develop a bit. If that's the case, he'll become a great guard for the Ravens for a long time.

30. San Francisco 49ers—Brandon Washington, OG

The Niners have some issues at guard and have had depth issues for a long time. Washington could compete with Daniel Kilgore for the starting right guard job immediately. He might struggle a little initially, but would very quickly carve out a home on the line in the Bay Area.

31. New England Patriots—Mark Barron, S

Barron won't be feeling any aftereffects from his hernia surgery so the Patriots will not hesitate to draft him if they don't trade this pick. Barron is the best pure safety in this draft and could step in right away for New England. He should be effective immediately and have a long career as a defensive back.

32. New York Giants—Lavonte David, OLB

The Giants could go several ways, including a tight end even though they just signed Martellus Bennett. However, bringing on the somewhat undersized but talented and instinctive David would continue to give this defense the dynamic depth that they seem to thrive on. His numbers wouldn't shock and awe you the first year or two, but he will eventually emerge as a force in this defense.