NCAA Tournament: Five Things I'm Basing My Bracket Picks on

The 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament was announced yesterday, and last night, I finalized my bracket picks (which can be found here if anyone's interested).  Here are the five things I recommend basing your bracket picks on:

• Chalk: Face it, upsets are the exception rather than the rule.  If you pick mostly upsets, you'll likely finish last in your pool.  Butler and VCU notwithstanding, most of the Tournament winners and Final Four participants are 1, 2 or 3 seeds.  Hence why my championship game is Kentucky-Syracuse, and I have 15 of the top 16 teams winning their first game.  

• RPI: RPI is kind of like chalk, except it's calculated with computer formulas instead of old white men sitting in Indianapolis trying to figure out how to hype up the Big East at the expense of the Pac-12.  I personally use RPI to break ties where the difference in first-round seeds is three or less (i.e. 7-10 matchups, 8-9 matchups).  Yes, I know RPI is somewhat skewed toward mid-majors like Memphis, but mid-majors have been performing solidly in the tournament of late.

• Conference Tourney Performance:  Something to consider is that teams that do well in the regular season, then falter in the conference tournament but still get an at-large bid, often end up under-performing their seeds (often becoming first-round outs).  By contrast, teams that win their conference tournament often win first-round matchups.  That's why I have Colorado getting out of the First Round, and Big East finalists Cincinnati and Louisville in the Elite Eight.

• Momentum: This one takes conference tournaments one step further.  Teams with good second-half records often do well in the tournament.  Hence why I have Western Kentucky winning their play-in game (and yes, I DO prognosticate on the First Four), even though they're under .500.

• Gut:  Sometimes you just gotta go with your gut when you make your picks.  Like picking your hometown team to make the Sweet 16 (unfortunately, the wheels kind of fell off MY hometown UCLA Bruins; Long Beach is in the tournament but I don't see them making waves).  Like picking Cal to win the play-in and then beat Temple.  Like picking Ohio State to fall to the Zags because the Buckeyes just seem like the type of team that will be out in the second round.  Like picking Baylor to pull the rug out from under Duke.  Like picking St. Bonaventure to win a game.  Sometimes, gut wins in these situations...remember that Woody Paige's mother won the Around the Horn tourney pool.

For reference, the two I relied most on were chalk and my gut.  Happy pick'ems, everyone!