2012 NFL Draft Projections: 7 Personnel Men Who Will Overthink Things

While there is plenty of science and empirical data that goes into executing a successful NFL draft, including the management of a team's own board and the draft market at large, the inexact and chaotic nature of its results also means it is something of an art form.

Different teams and their respective war room generals have varying reputations and track records for standing pat with their first-round picks, looking to trade back and accumulate more choices and better perceived value, as well as favoring certain positions over others early in the draft.

There is also the much-debated philosophical divergence between prioritizing current roster needs versus selecting the perceived best player available.  I stress perception with regard to the BPA approach because, while it sometimes works out (Jason Pierre-Paul to the New York Giants, 15th overall in 2010 is a classic recent example), it is often a futile self-indulgence in a team's overconfidence in its ability to project college players to the National Football League.

We need only examine any historical draft ledger to understand this concept based on the numerous first-round failures that coincide with players on day two outperforming higher picks at the same positions, let alone the day-three and undrafted free agent success stories that are so abundant.

Please do not mistake this assertion of the NFL draft and scouting realm as a convenient revisionist critique.  While I have full confidence in my own player evaluation and projection abilities, the bare facts are that most regimes' track records are littered with mistakes and reaches based on the presumption that a given player was the "best available" or that they were outsmarting the market.

The sounder approach of choosing amongst the best players on the board at positions of reasonable, or certainly dire, need at least narrows the field of each potential selection.  Simultaneously, it allows an organization to directly address the positional depth chart that corresponds to its selection.

Notice the verb address is specifically distinct from resolve.  This acknowledges that even a player chosen at a position that demands improvement in a succeeding three-year window does not always himself pan out.  But to me it displays a clearer linear logic to player procurement than the less practical "he was the best guy on our board" defense that is so common in the wake of draft-day gaffes.

With so many variables in play, not to mention the pressure and scrutiny of every move, when deciding what to do at each draft slot, here are seven top personnel men who could overthink their respective teams' first-round picks next month.

As always, I look forward to your comments below and you may follow me on Twitter at @JeffRoemer.

Cleveland Browns: General Manager Tom Heckert

Current First-Round Picks: Nos. 4 and 22

Heckert was hired by the Cleveland Browns to be its general manager on January 11, 2010, following nine seasons in the Philadelphia Eagles organization; the last four of which were as its general manager.

It should be noted that Heckert was recruited into his current post shortly after former Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike Holmgren assumed the Browns' presidency.  In this sense, Holmgren oversees the football operations and certainly has his fingerprints on the team's philosophy and decisions.

In the wake of losing the Robert Griffin III sweepstakes to the Washington Redskins a few days ago, much of the industry has already branded Cleveland's offseason front office performance a failure for lack of decisive action, in a way overthinking the value of its draft picks and the urgency with which a winning package would be offered for the No. 2 pick.

Following the perceived natural disaster in Cleveland, the Brownies now need to execute their 2012 first round with surgical precision.  Equipped with two picks (four, 22) and situated high enough with the first one to theoretically have access to an elite prospect, Heckert is still in a pivotal position.

The likelihood of overthinking this whole thing seems overwhelming given all the potential directions he can go:

1) Stay at four and take one of Morris Claiborne, Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon.  The latter two, as potential offensive stars, may lessen the sting of losing out on Griffin.

2) Look to trade out of four to a team that wants to move up with an eye on any one of the aforementioned players.  Depending on how far it drops, Ryan Tannehill could still be an option at quarterback (assuming he is the next passer on Cleveland's board).

3) In trading down from the fourth pick, it could go best player available with an eye towards Brandon Weeden at 22, towards whom Heckert has been favorably quoted.

My take: I do not like Tannehill or Weeden as first-round picks so that simplifies my thought process for Cleveland quite a bit.  I also am not enamored with taking a cornerback at No. 4, despite him being at the top of my positional board.

The ideal scenario for Cleveland is to find a taker, any taker honestly, that gets them later in the top ten or even the middle of the first round.  Use that pick and 22 to find a pair of quality starters along the offensive line and/or defensive front seven.

St. Louis Rams: General Manager Les Snead

Current First-Round Pick: No. 6

Les Snead was only hired this past offseason as the Rams' general manager in the aftermath of the three-year debacle of Billy Devaney and Steve Spagnuolo—a run of futility marked by a 10-38 regular season standing and a spotty track record of draft selections.

Snead comes to the Gateway to the West from the Atlanta Falcons organization where he spent 13 years, including the last three as director of player personnel.  In coming to the Rams, he will be teamed with veteran head coach Jeff Fisher, who is expected to also have a hand in the draft.

As the chaperone of the Robert Griffin III love triangle (along with previous suitors Cleveland and Washington), the ongoing perception of the Rams' front office is the polar opposite of the Browns, one of a tremendous victory in securing three first-round picks (2012, 2013, 2014) and the Redskins' second selection (39th overall) this year.

Stocked with so many high picks over the next few years, Snead and Fisher have given the organization its best opportunity to shape the roster most cost-effectively and with their overall philosophy in mind.

Now comes the difficult part: executing those picks and addressing a roster that sorely needs upgrading, beginning with the sixth selection this year:

1) Stay put at six and choose from amongst Justin Blackmon (the most common mock projection at this time), Claiborne, Richardson, offensive lineman Riley Reiff or even Fletcher Cox, who was mentioned in one Twitter exchange I was recently a part of.

2) Try to pull off the extremely rare double trade-down.  Having already moved from two to six, the Rams could find themselves in another actionable slot depending on who (from Claiborne, Richardson or Blackmon) falls here, or the burgeoning market on Ryan Tannehill.

My take: The Rams are not in a competitive window; they are building one.  Beyond the lack of value of a running back this high, the timing for Richardson is not sensible.  He would share carries with Steven Jackson for several years and be arriving at financial maturity when the team is ready to ascend.

History has shown over and over that wide receivers, even elite ones (and it is debatable as to whether Blackmon is that or not), do not elevate bad teams.  Despite dominant performances from Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, their teams all struggled immensely early in their respective careers.

Claiborne is more attractive at six than four but the unpredictability of cornerback translation in the NFL still puts me off him in favor of Reiff or Cox, depending on which St. Louis has rated higher.  Both of its lines need a ton of work, be it protecting quarterback Sam Bradford or getting younger and more talented at interior defensive line.

And like Cleveland, the Rams may have too attractive of an opportunity not to trade down again with this pick, especially if there is some proximity on its board between Reiff, Cox and the other prospects at these two positions.

Dallas Cowboys: Owner/President/General Manger Jerry Jones

Current First-Round Pick: No. 14

Jerry Jones has been the top personnel man for the Dallas Cowboys since taking over general manager duties in 1989, making him this generation's Al Davis in the way of an iconic owner that directly presides over his team's football operations.

It is fair to say that Jones has learned a tremendous amount in terms of prospect evaluation and executing a quality draft.  Success came fast, and seemingly easy, with the triplets (Troy Aikman in 1989 and Emmitt Smith in 1990; Michael Irvin came in 1988) followed by offensive line stalwarts Erik Williams (1991 third round) and Larry Allen (1994 second round).  These men served as the foundation that coincided with a dynasty of excellence for Dallas.

From 1995 to 1997, Dallas saw only one first-round selection and it was missed with Louisiana State University tight end David LeFleur.

Recent years have seen Jones go with a first-round blend of offensive skill (Felix Jones, Dez Bryant) and line-of-scrimmage players (DeMarcus Ware, Tyron Smith, Anthony Spencer, Bobby Carpenter, Marcus Spears) with varying success.

I see the Cowboys being in an ideal position for the 2012 first round based on their slot at 14, the draft market shaping up as it appears to be and the two crucial positional needs they have: defensive secondary and interior offensive line.

1) Stay at 14 and let the board fall as it will.  Take the highest-rated player available out of Riley Reiff (who, yes, may fall this far and could project inside to guard), offensive guard David DeCastro, safety Mark Barron or the likely second cornerback in the draft.

2) Get cute: Jones could try to be a genius by making a splash or a surprise pick in an effort to draw attention to himself and further prove his evaluation mettle above his peers.

To be fair to Jones, we really have not seen a play like this since Quincy Carter (second round, 53rd overall) back in 2001.  But with Jones' overall track record of antics, it always seems plausible.

My take: Obviously scenario one from above.  Despite some growing concerns about Reiff's athletic ceiling and ultimate projection as a left tackle, I think the quality of his tape, technique and pedigree will have him gone by 14 because there is a chance he works out on the blindside.

There will be various talk about corners Janoris Jenkins and Dre Kirkpatrick with this pick based on their presence in the draftnik conversation about the No. 2 corner in the class.  Jenkins' character concerns easily scare me off of him at this height in the process.  Kirkpatrick could be the guy despite, or possibly because of, some projections that have him ending up at free safety, which would not be the worst thing for Dallas if he does well there.

I have the targets here ranked with DeCastro and then Barron.  The former is one of the best guard prospects in some time with a high floor and probability of being very good for the life of his tenure with his drafting team.

The latter, Barron, is not as safely considered elite, and his pre-draft process has been quiet because of recovery from double hernia surgery.  But he is an excellent two-dimensional safety prospect and one who projects to cover well in the middle of the field.

San Diego Chargers: General Manager A.J. Smith

Current First-Round Pick: No. 18

A.J. Smith has been in place as the San Diego Chargers' chief personnel man since April 22, 2003, and has presided over a largely successful run of football on the field, including five AFC West championships.

But recent years have been marred by underachievement on the field, namely failing to advance as far as expected in the playoffs or missing them altogether despite a weak division and some talented rosters, along with highly questionable first-round picks.

A snapshot at these recent top picks for Smith:

2011, Corey Liuget: a player I like(d) a lot, but who majorly disappointed as a rookie, and may be a much better fit as a three-technique defensive tackle in a 4-3 than the 3-4 defensive end spot he is in now.

2010, Ryan Mathews: a talented running back for sure, but one who has displayed durability and fumbling issues in both years as a pro, and for whom Smith had to trade up in order to select 12th overall.

2009, Larry English: a colossal bust as a pass-rushing outside linebacker (one of San Diego's 2012 pressing needs) that was more combine freak than elite football player.

2008, Antoine Cason: a corner who has at least been a starter the last two years, but who was chosen ahead of ultimately superior players Brandon Flowers (also a cornerback), Jordy Nelson, Matt Forte and Calais Campbell, all of whom could be upgrades at their respective positions on the Chargers' current roster.

2007, Craig Davis: a wide receiver with 51 career receptions and is already out of the NFL.

Despite all of the recent frustration surrounding the Chargers, president Dean Spanos gave Smith and head coach Norv Turner a lease on life to at least steward the club into 2012.  This leaves San Diego with one of two paths in the first round:

1) Sit tight with the 18th pick and take the best offensive lineman or perimeter pass-rusher available to them at that point.  Candidates for this are lead by: offensive tackle Jonathan Martin, guard/tackle Cordy Glenn, to a lesser degree in my opinion offensive tackle Mike Adams, or outside linebackers Courtney Upshaw, Whitney Mercilus or Nick Perry.

2) Trade up from the 18th pick, somewhere into the nine-to-13 range, a scenario I touch on in my recent draft rumors piece, and attack the same two positions on the board from this higher slot.

My take: This is as obvious a do-or-die season for a football regime as any other in 2012 and to me promotes a culture of action on this pick.  Will the Chargers get an opportunity at a fine player at either position of need by staying put at 18? Yes, I think so.

But in order to assure itself of the best player on its board—guard DeCastro, tackle Martin or outside linebacker Upshaw—a move higher into the middle of the first round is necessary.

I do love DeCastro but there is a better chance of procuring someone solid or better at guard, either previously in free agency or later in the draft, than there is at outside linebacker.  And to me Courtney Upshaw will be one of the best defenders in this class when we look back 10 years from now.  He is a quality, well-rounded football player that brings toughness and identity to an NFL defense; and I doubt he makes it to the 18th pick.

Detroit Lions: General Manager Martin Mayhew

Current First-Round Pick: No. 23

Mayhew has been the man in charge, and oversaw the hiring of current head coach Jim Schwartz, for the Detroit Lions since December 29, 2008, having presided over the last three drafts in Detroit.

During this time, the Lions have risen from NFL doormats (including a 2-14 record in his first year on the heels of a winless 2008, and a 26-game road losing streak that ended in late 2010) to a 2011 playoff club on the rise with a solid young nucleus.

Other than Matthew Stafford (2009 first overall) and Ndamukong Suh (2010 second overall), who were both fairly obvious intersections of elite talent and dire need, the Lions have somewhat defied conventional wisdom with its top draft selections.

2009: Brandon Pettigrew, 20th overall, a dangerous downfield pass-catching tight end.

2010: Jahvid Best, 30th overall, a speed back with well-documented durability issues.

2011: Nick Fairley, 13th overall, a one-year wonder college defensive tackle with a high bust factor in my opinion and a poster pick for the "best player available" philosophy to a fault.

2011: Titus Young, 44th overall (second round), a small wide receiver that may be good enough to play outside, as well as from the slot.

2011: Mikel LeShoure, 57th overall (second round), another running back, who unfortunately missed his entire rookie campaign due to injury.

All of the picks, with the exception of Fairley, can be explained, though not excused, as a concerted effort to surround former No. 1 pick and franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford with the weapons to succeed.

The problem with this three-year slant, the Fairley pick included, is that now with the Lions potentially on the cusp of taking that next step to being a conference-championship-caliber team, it has core roster deficiencies along the offensive line, defensive secondary and the defensive front seven in conjunction with a salary cap issue after placing the franchise tag (at approximately $10 million) on pass-rushing defensive end Cliff Avril.

1) Will Mayhew and the Lions' front office continue with its unabashed subscription to offensive weapons and/or the best player available?

2) Does a sounder take on this year's 23rd selection result in attention being paid to an offensive lineman, pass-rusher or cornerback?

Detroit could be in a tough spot based on its positioning because, outside of some quality options in free agency and this range of the draft at corner, achieving value with this pick along the offensive line or at defensive end could prove difficult.  This may result in the need to move up to target a player it covets, sacrificing other resources, or move down the board and risking another such player being selected beforehand.

My take: Stop selecting fantasy offensive players and/or the infamous "best player available."  The Lions have a chance to be one of the big boys and need to start taking a more mature approach to its drafts.

I do not recommend trading up because from its depth in the first round (23rd), a lot would have to be given up to ascend to a spot of discerning significance higher in the first round.  They should sit tight and evaluate the board at 23.

The unpredictability of the beast means that a useful prospect, such as defensive ends Whitney Mercilus or Nick Perry, or offensive linemen Jonathan Martin or Cordy Glenn, could get to them.  If not, then at that point they see what is available in terms of trading down or out of the first round or taking the best corner on its board.  Any of Janoris Jenkins, Dre Kirkpatrick, Stephon Gilmore, Jamell Fleming or Brandon Boykin could be there.

New England Patriots: Head Coach Bill Belichick

Current First-Round Picks: Nos. 27 and 31

Belichick is often referred to as a genius in both media analysis and fan circles alike.  And he has rightly earned this reverent title, guiding the New England Patriots to three world championships, five Super Bowls in all and nine AFC East crowns over his 12 years at the helm.

According to his Wikipedia biography, Belichick split general manager duties with Scott Pioli until the latter defected to Kansas City to become the Chiefs' football operations czar.  Since then, Belichick has been the lone final authority on personnel decisions for the Patriots.

In the three first rounds since Belichick has been on his own, the Patriots have been dizzyingly active, almost at a historic rate.

2009: dropped from 23rd to 26th with the Ravens, picking up a fifth-rounder in the process; turned around and shipped that 5th and the 26th overall selection to the Packers for a second (41st overall) and two thirds (73 and 83), the first of which it later traded to Jacksonville.

The Packers took Clay Matthews with the 26th choice, which has since been a critical bone of contention with regard to Belichick's propensity to trade back due to the Patriots' lack of an elite 3-4 perimeter pass-rusher.

New England used the 41st pick on defensive back Darius Butler, a failed prospect that ended up with the Carolina Panthers last year.  The Pats' first pick in 2009, though, ended up being safety Patrick Chung, acquired from the Chiefs for quarterback Matt Cassel and outside linebacker Mike Vrabel.

2010: slid down from 22 to 24 with the Broncos (Demaryius Thomas), also getting a fourth (113th overall), which became Aaron Hernandez.

New England traded its first-round pick twice for the second consecutive year, giving that 24th overall selection to Dallas (Dez Bryant), moving back three spots to select Devin McCourty, while also gaining the 90th pick (third round, Taylor Price) at the same time.

2011: the Patriots acquired the 17th choice from the Oakland Raiders for Richard Seymour and stood pat for offensive tackle Nate Solder.

But the game was afoot once more with its own first-round pick (28th overall), which it pawned off on the New Orleans Saints (Mark Ingram), acquiring the 56th pick (Round 2, Shane Vereen) and a 2012 first-rounder (now the 27th slot next month).

Belichick took another early-pick defensive back at 33 in corner Ras-I-Dowling, which came from Carolina in a 2010 draft-day trade that the Panthers used on FCS quarterback-to-wide receiver conversion Armanti Edwards.

Not only does New England have two more first-round selections again in 2012 (27 and 31), but it also possesses two picks in each of the second and third rounds.  It seems a very safe bet that Belichick will be wheeling and dealing again.  The suspense will be at what juncture this will occur and if it will be to bundle and move forward in the first or drop back and gain extra picks on day two and/or for 2013.

The scenarios that Belichick may weave with its pair of first-rounders is just short of infinite so I am going to proceed directly to my prediction and recommendation.

My take: I expect Belichick to use his higher selection (27th overall) to choose the top-rated defensive player on New England's board, preferably a pass-rusher, defensive back or five-technique defensive end in descending order of need.

There should be ample prospects at those positions of varying appeal to the Patriots.  Possibilities include outside linebackers Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry and Andre Branch; defensive backs Janoris Jenkins, Dre Kirkpatrick, Stephon Gilmore, Jamell Fleming or Brandon Boykin; or 3-4 defensive ends Devon Still or Kendall Reyes.

Recall that Belichick has already spent a ton of high picks in the defensive backfield over the previous three years, which could mean he will not hesitate to do so again as a position of need or rely on the returning health and continued development of his incumbent veterans.

I would like to see them also hold tight at 31 and take their top player at whichever position is not addressed at 27.  But my expectation is that will be the roll pick with numerous teams looking to climb back into the last first round to draft an offensive skill player it covets or one of the corners in that range that it likes most and is worried will not fall much further.

Moving pick 31 is even more attractive this year because of the analytical perception that there is a ton of plateaued talent available on day two at myriad positions; just the kind of plural depth Belichick likes to swim in.

New York Giants: General Manager Jerry Reese

Current First-Round Pick: No. 32

The difficulty of repeating success after winning the Super Bowl, even being a playoff club, has been historically justified by myriad explanations.  A shorter postseason, being on the celebration tour, staff and players targeted at a higher rate for promotions or acquisition, a tougher schedule and psychological complacency all factor into it.

Another component is picking last in every round during the succeeding draft, theoretically limiting the defending champion's access to the best amateur players, which can affect the quality of plug-and-play rookie candidates, as well as depth pieces.

After taking over the top spot in the New York football Giants' personnel department on January 16, 2007, Reese is now saddled with this very challenge following their victory in Super Bowl XLVI.

In the five drafts over which Reese has presided, however, the G-men have taken three defensive backs in the first round (Aaron Ross in 2007, Kenny Phillips in 2008, Prince Amukamara in 2011) along with Terrell Thomas in the second round of 2008.

He is also a notorious "best player available" devotee, which has paid huge dividends with the other two first-round selections (Hakeem Nicks in 2009 and Jason Pierre-Paul in 2010).

But similar to the Detroit Lions' situation, this has left a couple areas of the roster in relative disrepair—the linebacking corps and primarily the offensive line.  The latter of which went from a run of years enjoying strong play and cohesion from a veteran group, whose unit play as a single organism was superior to the individual talent of its members, to an oft-injured ineffective patchwork.

The Giants are different, and worse off in this way, than the Lions because they do not have the same overall nucleus of young talent.  Recall that this team barely qualified for the playoffs and members of the national and New York media were calling for Tom Coughlin's job.  While that was the typical overreaction to New York sports frustration, this roster is not in typical post-Super Bowl winning shape.

1) New York will follow its previous modus operandi and select a defensive back, which can be fairly called a reasonable need on every club in the modern NFL, or the top player on its board regardless of position.

2) They will go along with, or succumb to, the crushing predictive whims of the draft analysis community and take the top tight end on the board, and possibly the first in the draft, as a direct reaction to having lost their top two hybrid players (Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum) to ACL tears in the Super Bowl.

3) Acknowledge the massive youth movement and talent upgrade that must begin to take place this offseason and take the top available offensive lineman on its board.

My take: This is a very tough call and will really test Reese's discipline, convictions and decision-making in my opinion.  Because a defensive back or a tight end may be the best player on the Giants' board and is a position of reasonable need, and if we accept this, then it is not really prudent to be all that critical of such a pick.

I happen to think that the situation with the offensive line, which is both crucial to the unit's success and consistency in conjunction with its scarcity in free agency, takes precedence here at 32.  And to me it works because there are two linemen that I like a lot with this pick: right tackle/guard Kelechi Osemele or guard Amini Silatolu.