Big 12 Tournament 2012: Baylor Will Beat Missouri

The Big 12 Tournament comes down to one final game between the Baylor Bears and Missouri Tigers tonight. The Bears and Tigers face off for the third time this season, with Missouri taking the first two games.

The game in Waco went down to the wire, with Missouri winning by a single point, while the game in Missouri was a 15-point blowout. Now we can throw out what happened in January and early February, as the Big 12 Tournament has had more than a few surprises.

Strengths

Baylor's strength is clearly its frontcourt athleticism. With Perry Jones III, Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller, the Bears have a powerful and mobile front line.

Missouri is a deep team that relies on a lot of players. The Tigers have four players scoring in double figures, and the Pressey brothers are not even among them. The Tigers also have an array of role players who are quite effective.

Stars

Perry Jones III is the X-factor for the Bears. He leads Baylor in points (13.7) and rebounds (7.6) per game, but he has a tendency to disappear at times. Against Missouri this season, he averaged six points per game, shooting a combined 6-for-19 from the floor and not making a single free throw.

Jones is a player who can determine the outcome of the game. He dropped a career-high 31 points on Kansas State before scoring 18 and leading the Bears to a win against Kansas.

Baylor also has freshman Quincy Miller and senior Quincy Acy in a frontcourt that can dominate anyone in the nation. Pierre Jackson is also the reason they are so successful. He is easily Baylor's best guard. He he leads the team in assists with 5.7 per night.

The best player for Missouri is Marcus Denmon, who leads the team in scoring and was once a top scorer in the country. However, the Tigers have a lot of great players, which makes them dangerous.

The player to watch is not Denmon, It's Kim English, who dropped 27 on Oklahoma State before going for another 23 last night against Texas, shooting 9-for-10 from the floor, including three-for-four from three and two-for-two from the free-throw line.

English was lights out and will be the game-changer for Missouri against Baylor.

Keys

The key for Baylor is to get Perry Jones III going. He is one of the best players in the nation and is next to unstoppable when he's hot. But he  very streaky. If he can get a couple of early buckets and get into a groove, he will be dangerous.

The Bears will also want to run the floor, as their athletic frontcourt of Jones III, Miller and Acy can all run better than Missouri's big men, which gives them a big advantage.

Finally, Baylor should be trying to look inside. In their first two meetings with Missouri, the Bears took 33 threes and shot only 23.5 percent in the second game. Baylor will need to get the ball inside. That is where the Bears take better shots and score more frequently.

The Tigers are a consistent team on offense, but their defense will be key.

The Tigers will be trying to stop Baylor from getting the ball inside or running in transition. While Missouri is slightly deeper than Baylor, they are not nearly as quick or athletic in terms of big men.

If Missouri hustles back on defense and can force Baylor to play a half-court set, the Tigers stand a very good chance of sweeping the season series.

Prediction

I see this as being a fast-paced, physical game. While the Tigers will be effective in a half-court set, Baylor will be looking to push the ball on offense, and Missouri will be forced to either slow the game down when they have the ball (which plays into Baylor's hands), or try to beat Baylor at its own game and run the floor.

Despite Missouri winning the first two games, I'm giving the edge to Baylor here. Perry Jones III has finally stepped up in a big game, which is great news for the Bears. His career high against Kansas State was a good sign, but so was having six players score in double figures against Kansas.

While Missouri has played well, including a domination of Texas in the second half, I don't think the Tigers will be able to keep up with Baylor in a fast-paced game. I think Perry Jones III will finally show Missouri what he can do.

Final Score: Baylor 84, Missouri 80

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