ACC Tournament 2012: Breaking Down North Carolina St. vs. North Carolina

The North Carolina State Wolfpack pulled off a small upset by beating Virginia today, but that just means a date with the deadly North Carolina Tar Heels.

A trip to the ACC Tournament final is on the line, and both teams certainly still have something on the line. NC State is right in the middle of the bubble while UNC is still fighting for a No. 1 seed.

This season, The Tar Heels have had the upper hand, posting a 2-0 record in this rivalry.

Here's a closer look at tomorrow's big game:

Where: Philips Arena, Atlanta, GA

When: Saturday, March 10, 1:00 PM EST

Watch: ESPN

Live Stream: ESPN3

Listen: For radio affiliates in North Carolina, check here

Key Injuries for North Carolina 

Dexter Strickland (knee), Out.

John Henson (wrist), Game-time decision.

Key Injuries for North Carolina State

None.

What's at Stake?

This one goes further than just an in-state rivalry—dominated mostly by North Carolina in the recent past.

NC State is right on the edge of the bubble.

If the Wolfpack lose, they still might get into the NCAA Tournament, but if they win, they are guaranteed an at-large bid.

On the other hand, the Tar Heels are playing for a No. 1 seed.

They are very close to locking it up, but if they lose this game—with or without John Henson—the committee will certainly have to think twice.

What They're Saying

CBS' Jon Rothstein says, via Twitter, Henson will be a game-time decision.

ESPN's Eamonn Brennan notes NC State's bubble is a lot more friendly, now:

"

"A semifinals win over UNC would seal the deal. Short of that, NC State may still find itself on the bubble. But as Mark Gottfried intimated on the broadcast Friday, his young team is now in much better shape along the cutline now."

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North Carolina Player to Watch

Well, it's as simple as picking one.

Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller are all future first-round NBA draft picks and Kendall Marshall is the point guard that weaves everything together.

Marshall is the most important player on this team, but Barnes is the most exciting, thus he's the player to watch.

Barnes sometimes shies away from action, but when he takes the ball to the basket with aggression, he can score in a hurry.

Of course, he is also deadly from long range, but Barnes has the propensity to settle behind the arc too much. 

If he mixes up his game, he'll easily score 20 or more.

North Carolina State Player to Watch

C.J. Leslie is going to be the most explosive, athletic player in this game, and that's saying a lot considering how many NBA prospects there will be. 

Leslie had 19 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, a block and a steal in today's win against Virginia, and that's just the tip of the iceberg for the talented sophomore.

He has the ability to go 15-10-3-3 every game—that's how influential Leslie is on both sides of the court. 

Key Matchup

Scott Wood vs. North Carolina's perimeter defense.

When the Tar Heels lost Dexter Strickland for the season, they lost their best perimeter defender, and Wood has the ability to take advantage.

Wood is a three-point shooting wizard and should be let loose against a Tar Heels defense that allows teams to shoot a lot of threes.

He's "only" shooting 42 percent from beyond the arc, but he can knock down six, seven or eight in a row. The Tar Heels need to defend Wood tightly.

He's that deadly.

Prediction

I don't feel right making a prediction with John Henson's status still up in the air, but I'll go for it anyways.

For what it's worth, I don't think the Tar Heels will risk it with Henson.

James Michael McAdoo isn't Henson, but he's been steadily improving and serves as a good backup.

Even without Henson, the Heels will be able to dominate in the paint, although NC State is playing well and will make things more interesting than the first two matchups.

North Carolina 77, NC State 68