Pac-12 Tournament 2012: Last-Minute Picks for Semifinal Matchups

Every team left standing in the Pac-12 tournament doesn't just want to win the whole thing. Each of the four teams still in it to win it need to win the whole thing.

There are no guarantees in the Pac-12 this year. No guarantees of the at-large bid variety, anyway. The safest way into the Big Dance is by way of a conference title.

That will be determined on Saturday night. Here are my picks for which teams will be doing battle in the Pac-12 Championship.

Note: Spreads according to Bovada.

No. 9 Oregon State vs. No. 4 Arizona (-3)

Time: 9 p.m. ET

TV: Fox Sports Net

If the Beavers can beat top-seeded Washington, they can beat anyone, right?

Um, no. If Oregon State's win over Washington taught us anything, it's just how mediocre the Pac-12 really is, not how good Oregon State really is.

Still, the Beavers do pose a threat to the Wildcats because of what they can do offensively. Oregon State finished 10th in the country in scoring for the regular season, and it has three above-average scorers in Jared Cunningham, Devon Collier and Ahmad Starks. 

But where there is offense, there is no defense. Per TeamRankings.com, the Beavers allow 73.3 points per game, which is good for No. 303 in the country. Their opponents shoot nearly 46 percent from the field.

Oregon State's shortcomings on defense definitely showed in its loss to Arizona in January. The Wildcats shot better than 47 percent from the floor, including 54.5 percent from three. 

The Wildcats are not an elite offensive team, but it will end up looking like they are against Oregon State. To boot, they know they're on the bubble, and that losing this game will end their Big Dance dreams once and for all.

Besides, Oregon State is just plain lucky to be here. The Beavers wouldn't have beaten Washington if the Huskies had managed to knock down their free throws.

Prediction: Arizona by six.

No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 2 California (-6)

Time: 11:30 p.m. ET

TV: Fox Sports Net

For a while there, it looked like the Golden Bears were going to suffer a second straight loss to the Stanford Cardinal.

But nope. Cal dominated in the second half, with Jorge Gutierrez (22 points, seven assists, six rebounds) leading the way.

The key stat in Cal's win over Stanford was Cal's assist total. The Bears had 17 of them, which is right on par with the numbers they put up during the regular season. Cal's ball movement and ability to create shots made it the 12th-best assist team in the nation.

Another key stat was turnovers. Cal couldn't stop committing them in the first half, but the Bears took care of the ball in the second half and ran away with the game.

Forcing turnovers is not Colorado's forte. The Buffaloes forced just 11.7 turnovers per game during the season, making them the No. 282 team in the nation in that category. They're not a team that is going to force Cal to waste possessions like it did in the first half against Stanford.

Colorado is coming into this game off an upset win over Oregon, and that was largely thanks to Devoe Joseph's dreadfully subpar performance. He was just 6-of-19 from the field, including 0-of-7 from three.

The Bears don't rely as much on a single scorer as Oregon. If they need offense, there's more than one place they can turn to get it.

That will be the difference in this game, but it's going to be too close for comfort.

Prediction: Cal by three.