Texas Basketball: What Experts Say About Longhorns' NCAA Tournament Chances

Perhaps CBS television analyst and sometimes Sports Illustrated contributor Seth Davis said it best on Twitter Friday morning.

Still chewing on Texas's impressive victory over a very good Iowa State team in the Big 12 quarterfinals, Davis offered this quick-fire assessment of the Longhorns' season:

"Not enough being said about what a GREAT job Rick Barnes has done this year. One of the most inexperienced rosters in the country."

Davis went on to offer his view that with the Iowa State win now a prized notch in their seasonal belt, Texas, 20-13 (9-9 Big 12) can consider themselves "in" to the NCAA tournament.

"I have a lot of numbers to comb through but my sense is South Fla is going to get a bid. Texas is in. Xavier is out if it loses to Dayton."

Barnes has now led the Longhorns to the tournament for 13 seasons running, beginning with his first season at the helm in 1998-99. He has amassed an 18-12 record in the NCAAs, including a Final Four appearance (2003) as well as two trips to the Elite Eight (2006, 2008).

Texas has the support of Kansas head coach Bill Self, whose No. 4 Jayhawks defeated the Longhorns 73-63 on March 3.

"They deserve a bid," Self said. "The second or third best league in the country (Big 12), one that plays 18 (games), double round-robin. The team that goes .500 deserves to get in. They are talking about Connecticut getting in at 8-10." (Connecticut plays in the Big East).

Joe Lunardi had the Longhorns listed as a No. 9 seed in the South Region, where they would face a potential Round of 32 match up with No. 1 overall seed Kentucky.

They ended up with a No. 11 seed, however, and a difficult match up with a physical and rapidly improving Cincinnati side in the 6-11 match up.

Texas have some very good pieces—Big 12 leading scorer J'Covan Brown (20.1 points) is flanked by talented and uber-explosive freshman Myck Kabongo—but they are too streaky for many pundits' liking.

CBS Sports

CBSSports.com currently has the Longhorns ranked 19th for strength of schedule and 49th in RPI.

Texas has slumped to a lowly 1-8 record against teams ranked in the Top 25 this season, but they improve to 3-3 against teams in the 26-50 bracket.

And that might be the best indication of where Texas's NCAA tournament prospects lie.

Not quite elite status, but talented enough to take out opponents in the first rounds and give some high seeds a serious scare.

After all, Kentucky (whom Texas may face in the Sweet 16) met an early demise in 2004 against UAB. The Wildcats were also the No. 1 overall seed that season.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN

Taking a somewhat different point of view than Davis, Lunardi felt that Texas would have cemented its NCAA tournament hopes with two wins (as opposed to Davis's proposed one) in the Big 12 tourney.

Lunardi also referenced some of the Longhorns' key wins this season, two of which came against opponents with top 50 RPIs (Temple and Iowa State). This was of course before Texas's win against the Cyclones on March 8.

With a 7-3 (pre-Missouri game) record in their last 10 games heading into the tournament, Texas has turned on the jets at precisely the right time.

While critics might point to their inability to beat the nation's elite this season, Texas came very close on numerous occasions.

As Lunardi mentioned, in that Jan. 30, 67-66 home loss to then-No. 4 Missouri, Texas had a chance to win the game at the buzzer.

Add to that a three-point loss to Kansas on Jan. 21, and a pair of five-point losses to Baylor, and Texas has shown that it can hang with the big boys.

With the Big 12's leading scorer in their arsenal, the Longhorns may just fancy their chances of making a serious run in the tournament.

J'Covan Brown is both talented and resilient—perfect traits for a slasher—and against Iowa State on March 8, both those attributes were on display, as the junior swingman succeeded in making a pair of key three-point plays down the stretch which helped seal a 71-65 win.

If he gets hot in the tournament, and mercurial frosh Myck Kabongo joins him (Kabongo can catch fire as he did against Oklahoma State on Feb. 18, where he scored 22 points on eight of 12 shooting, three of four from three; or he can go on desperately trying cold spells, as was seen in consecutive games against Oklahoma and Kansas, when he shot a combined 0 of 13 from the floor), Texas has the chops to surprise some people in March.

Obviously, a Final Four run is a huge long shot given Texas's likely low seeding, meaning they may have to play a brutal set of teams, but a couple games is a very real possibility.

Myron Medcalf, ESPN

The ESPN contributor acknowledged just how dangerous J'Covan Brown can be for the Longhorns.

The swingman can go off for 25, but he can also go deathly quiet.

That mercurial nature could lead the Longhorns to the Sweet 16, as Medcalf writes, but it could also lead to an embarrassing second-round exit.

But then, given the youth in this Texas team, that might not be all too surprising.

Eamonn Brennan, ESPN

Brennan listed the Longhorns as one of his long-shot picks, but did praise J'Covan Brown's scoring ability.

And in a tournament where guards have been known to run riot while leading their teams on improbable charges, why couldn't Brown lead a Texas team that held its own against Big 12 heavyweights Baylor and Missouri into the Sweet 16?

Doug Gottlieb, ESPN

Gottlieb is confident that the Longhorns can get past the Bearcats because they can match their opponents' athleticism.

But again, Gottlieb voices concern over where the scoring will come from should Brown have an off night.

Still, there's no reason why Texas can't get into the Sweet 16.

"There's no reason to believe why they can't make it into the third round," Gottlieb said in closing.