2012 NFL Draft: 5 Burning Questions on Our Mind, Post-Scouting Combine

We are heading into the second half. The NFL Scouting Combine is done. Pro Days are fully underway and should last through to nearly the end of March. Pretty soon, we will be rounding the final turn and heading for the finish line.

The unfortunate part is that the home stretch leaves us sitting around, spinning our wheels for a long time. The NFL draft used to be a few weeks earlier than its current late-April date. With the draft happening later, we are left with about a full month to sit around an bloviate while nothing occurs—no pro days, no All-Star games, no combines, nothing.

That will not stop us from finding things to discuss and argue about, of course. Now that the combine is done, I will take you through some of the burning questions about what happens this coming April that genuinely have me curious.

Where's Brandon Weeden?

The biggest question on my mind is where Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden ends up in the draft this April.

He is one of the draft's most enigmatic prospects, not unlike quarterback Ryan Mallett a year ago. Mallett had enormous talent that was widely agreed upon, but a cloud of vague character questions that refused to go away. That issue may have been responsible for taking a top 15 talent and dropping him to the early third round.

Similarly, Brandon Weeden has enormous quarterbacking talent that is widely agreed upon, but also that single, difficult-to-frame question looming over his head.

Simply put, Weeden's birth certificate has the wrong numbers to be considered an attractive prospect. He will be 29 years old in Week 6 of the upcoming season.

Brandon's throwing talent is unquestionable. He throws the best ball of any of the quarterbacks at the top of this draft class. His velocity on stick throws averages out a good five miles per hour better than the likes of Robert Griffin and Ryan Tannehill. His deep throws do not bleed off velocity like most quarterbacks.

Over four-game samples, Weeden's accuracy percentage (57.9%) on throws 20-plus yards beyond was second only to Robert Griffin's (62.5%).

It has become hip to question Brandon's handling of pressure, but I believe a lot of people are losing the forest for the trees on this issue. Brandon was sacked 20 times in his Oklahoma State career, which averages out to once every 57 pass attempts. In the NFL, that is like getting sacked once every two games.

The best draft prospect from his offensive line over the last two years (Levy Adcock) is currently projected to be a sixth- or seventh-round pick. He was asked to hang in the pocket and wing the ball into all quarters of the field behind that offensive line, yet he only got sacked every 57 attempts.

Handling pressure is about so much more than just scrambling, resetting your feet and making a throw. That is a last resort. Reading the defense, stepping up in the pocket, and getting the ball off come before that. If you are a pass rusher, Brandon Weeden is an extremely frustrating player to play against.

The problem is the age. The last quarterback to enter the regular NFL draft in Brandon's situation was Chris Weinke of Florida State. He went in the fourth round. Naturally, some people believe that is where Weeden should go. However, when you watch tape of Chris Weinke, he was a fourth round prospect.

He was huge and had an NFL build almost fullback strength, and quick feet. However, the ball came off his hand like a fluttering duck far too often, and he was not very accurate. He was a solid fourth rounder that went int the fourth round, and therefore one has to question whether he suffered from his age at all.

They key questions seem to be how long can he play in the NFL if he only gets his shot at 28 years old, and how much of that time will be quality time. Based on a study I did of 20 Pro Bowl quarterbacks that did not start until their late 20s, The average is about eight seasons' worth of starts.

Weeden should be able to reach that number.

But how much of that time will be quality? What will be his learning curve?

I did another study on quarterbacks drafted from 1998 (Peyton Manning's class) through 2009. I limited it to quarterbacks who started and played significantly in both their first and second years in the league, as well as beyond.

I found that the average passer rating of the group in their second year in the league was actually above their average career passer ratings. Most had second-year passer ratings better than career rating, and only six of the 25 had second-year passer ratings significantly (five-plus points) worse ratings.

In today's NFL, most of today's quarterbacks need only one year before they reach the effective steady state of performance they will get to in their career. I would say Weeden is actually more ready to produce immediately than most rookie quarterbacks, due to his maturity and pure talent level.

Thus, I am not even sure he will need that year.

Another issue to consider, from a general manager's standpoint, is the money you will end up paying a Brandon Weeden as opposed to a player six years younger. Weeden's career should end up about six years shorter than someone younger, and this may lead some to conclude he is only half as valuable.

However, the six missing years are going to be the expensive years at the end of his career. Those are the years toward the end of a quarterback's career when you get the benefit of having a good player at the most important position in football, but you're also paying him accordingly.

Weeden will still start on a cheap rookie contract, just like all the other young guys.

But where other quarterbacks can be expected to play out two very large contracts, in addition to their cheap rookie deal. Weeden will probably only make it through one of those large contracts. The ratio of talent-to-pay for Weeden's full career is destined to be higher than an elite player six years his junior.

That would lead me to question the theory that he is worth only half as much as a similar talent six years younger. I would pit the valuation closer to 75 percent.

If Brandon Weeden were only 22 years old, and both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin were taken in the top two picks (which I will soon discuss), I would have no problem taking him. In this draft, that could put him as high as No. 4 overall.

According to the old draft trade value chart, the No. 4 overall pick is worth 1800 points. If you believe that Weeden's missing six years means he is worth only half of a similarly talented but younger player, that would make him worthy of the No. 18 overall pick.

If you believe, as I do, that the salary profile pits his value closer to 75 percent of a similar, but younger talent, that would make him worthy of the No. 9 overall pick.

Something to consider.

Will St. Louis Be Able to Trade Their Pick?

Up until now it has generally been assumed that Robert Griffin is such a good value that a team will definitely trade to the No. 2 overall pick in order to be sure that they will get him.

I am starting to wonder about that. Or rather I should say, I have wondered about that from the start.

Robert Griffin is a uniquely talented quarterback prospect, and he showed that at the combine by timing unofficially under a 4.4 at over 6'2" and 223 pounds.

But is he a special passer?

I remain unconvinced. His arm strength is not at the same level of a Brandon Weeden's. At this point, he does not even generate the same velocity on his passes as free agent Matt Flynn. Griffin has a wristy delivery, which he would get away with a lot better if he were a bigger player, like Cam Newton.

However, with his current delivery and mechanics, he gets good spin on the ball, but he is not driving through with top notch velocity. His velocity on stick throws is inconsistent, which is primarily why he times out slower than a more mature pro arm like Flynn's.

Much has been made of Griffin's deep accuracy, and it is something to behold at times.

However, the accuracy is inflated a little because of how open his players were in that Art Briles offense with wide enough splits that make you think you're watching a CFL game. Since his players were so open, Griffin was able to float a lot of his passes, aiming for maximum accuracy and ability to run, rather than making a deep throw.

I've measured average speed on several of Griffin's deeper passes that are really far below what they will have to be in the NFL. Will he have the same deep accuracy when asked to keep pace on the ball?

Another problem I had was his vision of the field and willingness to give up on a play too quickly. He has unorthodox pocket mechanics and I have been left wondering if, despite his height, he has trouble seeing the middle of the field over his linemen.

Finally, there is the pocket presence and his tendency to get smacked during games. While hanging tough in the pocket and taking punishment looks slick, it does not lead to long and fruitful NFL careers, especially on Griffin's skinny base.

He has read quicker, throw with anticipation, improve his pocket presence and ability to feel the rush without taking his eyes off the field. When he does those things, he won't be getting the ball off just before being squashed like a bug anymore.

All of this is not to say that Robert Griffin is a bad prospect. However, we're talking about the St. Louis Rams charging a king's ransom in a trade, despite everyone knowing that neither they nor the Vikings at No. 3 overall are willing to select Robert Griffin.

That just does not smell to me like a situation where a trade is a lock. I think the Cleveland Browns may be able to sit tight and take Robert Griffin at No. 4 overall. If not, Griffin may even make it all the way to Np. 6 overall.

What Will Draft Day Trades Look Like?

While we are on the subject of trades, I am extremely curious as to how draft day trades are going to look, especially relative to the ever popular draft value chart. Will there be an increase in trades happening among top 15 picks? Will there be a marked decrease?

The rookie wage scale has knocked draft pick values way out of whack. The league may not have digested exactly the extent to which the cheaper contracts paid to top 15 picks affects pick value.

What this could translate into, is trade friction. When values can no longer be commonly agreed upon, commerce grinds to a halt. This is why the somewhat-arbitrary draft value chart became so popular in the first place, even while it was clear that the outrageous contracts given to top 15 picks were making the chart irrelevant.

The truth is that the NFL needed a set of commonly agreed upon values in order to facilitate commerce.

However, now that the rookie wage scale is in full effect, you could see teams failing to come to agreement. You will have teams that insist that the chart still applies, while other teams insist that the significantly cheaper contracts demand that the chart values change.

The latter are correct. It is a simple fact that where the No. 1 overall used to make $12 million a year, he now makes about $6 million a year. The No. 8 overall pick used to make $8 million a year, and now he makes just over $3 million a year. These differences in contract value significantly affect relative pick values.

The further down the draft board, the more the current contracts under the rookie wage scale close in on the contracts prior to the rookie wage scale. The picks that got a lot cheaper at the top of the draft should now be worth a lot more of those lower picks than before. This is only logical.

They key to determining all of this is to determine a price translation for salary cap to draft picks. Would you rather have $7 extra million of salary cap space under this year's cap, or would you rather have a mid-third round pick?

If that is a tough question for you, then perhaps you ought to consider the possibility that those commodities are worth approximately the same as one another.

Applying that to the contract differences, I previously stated, the No. 1 overall pick just got approximately $24 million cheaper over a four-year period than it was prior to the rookie wage scale. This would mean the pick should be worth approximately 650 points more than it was worth prior to the rookie wage scale.

That equates to a No. 28 or No. 29 overall pick in the previous chart without a rookie wage scale.

Now, the No. 28 overall pick will make $3 million less over four years than he did prior to the wage scale, which makes that pick 83 points (about the value of a mid-fourth rounder) worth more than previously. This would go on down the line until you have a new set of values all the way down the line.

Will the NFL eventually engage in this kind of exercise? I believe it will.

However, if there is one thing the NFL is good at, it is resisting change. There could be a lot of general managers hanging on to the old chart values while other general managers insist that the old chart makes no sense with a rookie wage scale in place.

This friction could cause a reduction in draft day trades.

How Will the Top 15 Picks Play Out?

The rookie wage scale will not just affect draft day trades. It should also affect the makeup of the top 15 picks of this year's draft.

As previously discussed, these top picks just got drastically cheaper. The example I like to bring up is that of Stanford guard Dave DeCastro.

Prior to the rookie wage scale, less than one guard per year was drafted in the first round. The highest drafted guards in the 10 drafts previous to the rookie wage scale went between No. 17 and No. 39 overall. The average position for the top guard in the draft was between the 30th and 31st pick in the draft.

David DeCastro is considered a lock to go before the 31st pick in this year's NFL draft, and by the time all is said and done, Wisconsin guard Kevin Zeitler may get taken around that area as well. It is unclear whether Georgia tackle Cordy Glenn will be taken as a guard or a tackle.

However, he is likely to end up in the first round as well.

This is just one example of the effect the rookie wage scale will have on the first round. It boosts the draft stock of elite players at non-elite positions. Take the No. 8 overall pick as an example. Two years ago, that pick would make $8 million a year.

That is approximately the same of money multiple Pro Bowler Logan Mankins picked up from the New England Patriots when they gave him a contract extension.

That's after he had proven himself in this league.

Suddenly, it becomes clear why the NFL refused to touch guards higher than No. 17 overall, and rarely that high. By taking a guard at that pick, you would have essentially given yourself zero upside. That guard needs to make multiple Pro Bowls to be worth his contract.

Another kind of player I see benefiting from the rookie wage scale is the typical high risk, high reward player. The quarterback position fits this profile perfectly. A quarterback that pans out is worth his weight in gold. However, if you take him in the first round and he flames out, you have set your franchise back for years.

This was especially true in the days when you were forced to pay that quarterback ungainly amounts of money.

However, at No. 8 overall, you are only paying a guy $3 million a year. If the player you take flames out, you are not totally screwed from a salary cap standpoint. This may make it more attractive for general managers to inject some additional risk in those top picks, trying to ferret out true difference makers.

In this draft, that could benefit all quarterbacks as well as guys like receiver Michael Floyd and defensive tackle Dontari Poe.

How Many Defensive Tackles Will Go in the First Two Rounds?

Every draft has a position that seems over-stocked with NFL talent. This year's defensive tackle class looks to be that position.

Between Dontari Poe, Fletcher Cox, Devon Still, Michael Brockers, Brandon Thompson, Jerel Worthy, Kendall Reyes, Alamaeda Ta'amu, Josh Chapman and Mike Martin, you have an unusual number of players that could be taken in the first two rounds.

The question is, will that happen, given the trends we have seen in the NFL of late?

More and more, the NFL has become a passing league. Many defenses used their nickel packages so much that one could refer to them as no longer a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense, but a 4-2 or 3-3 defense.

You have to wonder when the NFL will begin to catch on to this, and stop drafting the big, square bodied power players on the interior of the defensive line quite as often. We are coming off an incredible run of 18 first- and second-round defensive tackles taken in the last two drafts.

Yet in this draft, we have another set of 10 that would look fine going in the two rounds.

I wonder if the NFL will steer toward coverage players, and let some of these brute force interior guys, talented as they may be, fall a little bit.